View Full Version : Survivor Week 1
Walter
08-22-2007, 11:50 AM
It's time to discuss whom we're going to take as our first-week survivor.
In case you don't know what this is, you need to pick a team to just win each week. If that team wins, you stay alive. If that team loses, you're out. You can't pick the same team twice.
These are guidelines I use:
1. Never pick road teams
2. Never pick a bad team
3. Never pick a public play
4. Never pick a team that could either be looking ahead or behind
The 16 home teams in Week 1 are:
Indianapolis
Minnesota
Green Bay
St. Louis
Buffalo
Houston
Washington
NY Jets
Cleveland
Jacksonville
San Diego
Oakland
Seattle
Dallas
Cincinnati
San Francisco
Knocking the bad teams off, we have:
Indianapolis
St. Louis
NY Jets
Jacksonville
San Diego
Seattle
Dallas
Cincinnati
San Francisco
Indy is playing the Saints, they're out.
St. Louis is playing the Panthers, possibility.
Jets are playing the Patriots, they're out.
Jaguars are playing the Titans, possibility.
Chargers are playing the Bears, possibility.
Seattle is playing the Bucs, possibility.
Dallas is playing the Giants, possibility.
Cincinnati is playing the Ravens, they're out.
San Francisco is playing the Cardinals, possibility.
We've narrowed it down to:
St. Louis over Carolina
Jacksonville over Tennessee
San Diego over Chicago
Seattle over Tampa Bay
Dallas over NY Giants
San Francisco over Arizona
Teams looking ahead:
San Francisco at St. Louis in Week 2
We've now narrowed it down to:
St. Louis over Carolina
Jacksonville over Tennessee
San Diego over Chicago
Seattle over Tampa Bay
Dallas over NY Giants
We don't know what the public is betting on yet.
OK, so what do you guys think? What's the strongest team we can choose out of those five?
Adam Mac
08-22-2007, 09:17 PM
Guessing most people would say Seattle but my money would be on Jacksonville since I feel Tenn is no good and Young is overrated but that's just my opinion I know many people will disagree
Walter
08-27-2007, 10:24 AM
Bump - I'd like to get some input here.
TOMMY B
08-27-2007, 01:29 PM
WALT:
WITH THE RULES YOU STATEDI THINK YOU HAVE ELIMINATED A FEW TEAMS I WOULD RECONSIDER AS POSSIBLE PLAYS .
HOU OV KC --- I WOULD LIKE THIS ONE BETTER IF CROYLE WAS STARTING INSTEAD OF HUARD , BUT NEWLY SIGNED RB MAY NOT PLAY THIS GAME AND IF THATS TRUE I LIKE HOU HERE TO WIN THE GAME EVEN IF EDWARDS HAS BEEN GAME PLANNING FOR HOU FOR WEEKS NOW . HUARD WILL BE LOOKING OVER HIS SHOULDER WONDERING WHEN HE WILL GET THE HOOK IF HE DOESN'T PLAY WELL AND THATS NOT A GOOD THING .
S D OV CHI --- ONCE CHI IS PINNED BACK DEEP NEAR THEIR OWN END ZONE GROSSMAN IS IN TROUBLE . FUMBLE , INT. OR 3 AND OUT ARE A GOOD CHANCE TO HAPPEN . S D WITH THEIR DEF WINS THIS ONE IN MY OPINION .
OAK OV DET --- IF OAK CAN MOVE THE BALL AND GET THE DEF SOME REST THEY CAN BE ALOT BETTER THAN LAST YEAR , AND WITH CULPEPPER AT QB I THINK THIS TEAM WILL SUPPRISE IN THE EARLY GOING OF THE SEASON . THEY WILL MOVE THE BALL AND SCORE , AND DONT FORGET THAT FG KICKER HAS A VERY STRONG LEG .
ALSO AGREE WITH YOUR DALL PICK AS A POSSIBILITY .
NOW FOR A QUESTION OR TWO . IM ENTERING A LAST MAN STANDING RUN BY STATIONS CASINO IN VEGAS , THEY WILL PRINT A WEEKLY CARD OF GAMES TO PICK FROM BUT ITS AGAINST THE SPREAD AND ALL 1/2 POINT LINES . NOW HOW OR WHAT RULE CHANGES WOULD YOU IMPLEMENT HERE . THIS IS MY 1st ATTEMP AT THIS KIND OF CONTEST AND IM NOT SURE OF THE RIGHT WAY TO PROCEED . GOT ANY POINTERS FOR ME ???? THANKS TOMMY B.
Matt McGuire
08-27-2007, 01:39 PM
Easy easy. Cowboys over Giants.
My next pick would be Jacksonville over Titans. I just don't see VY pulling out a win.
Is everyone picking their own, or is this to help you decide (Walter)?
Walter
08-27-2007, 02:42 PM
WALT:
WITH THE RULES YOU STATEDI THINK YOU HAVE ELIMINATED A FEW TEAMS I WOULD RECONSIDER AS POSSIBLE PLAYS .
HOU OV KC --- I WOULD LIKE THIS ONE BETTER IF CROYLE WAS STARTING INSTEAD OF HUARD , BUT NEWLY SIGNED RB MAY NOT PLAY THIS GAME AND IF THATS TRUE I LIKE HOU HERE TO WIN THE GAME EVEN IF EDWARDS HAS BEEN GAME PLANNING FOR HOU FOR WEEKS NOW . HUARD WILL BE LOOKING OVER HIS SHOULDER WONDERING WHEN HE WILL GET THE HOOK IF HE DOESN'T PLAY WELL AND THATS NOT A GOOD THING .
S D OV CHI --- ONCE CHI IS PINNED BACK DEEP NEAR THEIR OWN END ZONE GROSSMAN IS IN TROUBLE . FUMBLE , INT. OR 3 AND OUT ARE A GOOD CHANCE TO HAPPEN . S D WITH THEIR DEF WINS THIS ONE IN MY OPINION .
OAK OV DET --- IF OAK CAN MOVE THE BALL AND GET THE DEF SOME REST THEY CAN BE ALOT BETTER THAN LAST YEAR , AND WITH CULPEPPER AT QB I THINK THIS TEAM WILL SUPPRISE IN THE EARLY GOING OF THE SEASON . THEY WILL MOVE THE BALL AND SCORE , AND DONT FORGET THAT FG KICKER HAS A VERY STRONG LEG .
ALSO AGREE WITH YOUR DALL PICK AS A POSSIBILITY .
NOW FOR A QUESTION OR TWO . IM ENTERING A LAST MAN STANDING RUN BY STATIONS CASINO IN VEGAS , THEY WILL PRINT A WEEKLY CARD OF GAMES TO PICK FROM BUT ITS AGAINST THE SPREAD AND ALL 1/2 POINT LINES . NOW HOW OR WHAT RULE CHANGES WOULD YOU IMPLEMENT HERE . THIS IS MY 1st ATTEMP AT THIS KIND OF CONTEST AND IM NOT SURE OF THE RIGHT WAY TO PROCEED . GOT ANY POINTERS FOR ME ???? THANKS TOMMY B.
Thanks for your input. Well, as far as the spread's concerned, there aren't really any rules except you don't want to back a public favorite. That contest is much, much harder than the regular survivor.
Walter
08-27-2007, 02:43 PM
Easy easy. Cowboys over Giants.
My next pick would be Jacksonville over Titans. I just don't see VY pulling out a win.
I'm leaning toward Dallas too.
What about Seattle? Tampa is like 4-26 on the West Coast.
Walter
08-27-2007, 02:43 PM
Is everyone picking their own, or is this to help you decide (Walter)?
I guess we can do a contest here on this site, but this thread was to help me make a survivor pick for the site in general.
I guess we can do a contest here on this site, but this thread was to help me make a survivor pick for the site in general.
Well if it was a contest, I wouldn't say all the reasoning behind my picks. Anyway, here's what I think...
The way Carolina's offense has been playing lately, I'd be very tempted to take St Louis in the Edward Jones dome. We know the Rams always put up points at home, and I don't think Carolina can match them.
Last year I would've taken Seattle over Tampa Bay in a heartbeat, but I haven't been following the Bucs this offseason, and I'm not really sure what they bring to the table. Both of these picks are probably fairly solid though, IMO.
I'd be very hesitant to take an intra-division game for a survivor pick. Teams in the same division know each other exceptionally well, and even if one team is clearly better than the other, these games always have the ability to go either way.
Walter
08-27-2007, 03:11 PM
Your last point is the only reason I'm hesitating with Dallas.
swifty222
08-27-2007, 03:27 PM
Not a good person to write up things, I like San Diego they got a great DEF team this year. Can't CHI put up numbers? I think so. still like San Diego to win
swifty222
08-27-2007, 03:29 PM
I just bought a book online
Your Official Guide on how to DOMINATE Fantasy football,
By Randy Giminez
More than 100 winning Tip's & Priven Strategies .
what you all think is this the right way of winning your league's going to try it out this year. and see what I can do.
Chris
Adam Mac
08-30-2007, 08:16 PM
I take it no one likes my Jacksonville pick then?
TOMMY B
08-31-2007, 08:30 PM
Jax Is Looking Better With Garrard Under Center . Maybe They Open Up The Offense Now Instead Of Trying To Win With Defense. I Cant Take Them Laying Points And Then Losing The Cover And Winning A Close Game . It Might Change Now But Seeing Is Believing . Tommy B
MidwayMonster31
08-31-2007, 11:44 PM
I'm going to pick
St. Louis
They will be tough to beat at home, Carolina usually starts slow and really looked bad in the preseason.
Walter
09-01-2007, 09:59 AM
I think the Titans are undervalued and could win the game.
St. Louis has a banged-up Torry Holt. He may not even play.
Cowboys, Seahawks and Chargers are the three strongest plays in Week 1 IMO
Adam Mac
09-03-2007, 02:24 PM
Well I must say don't go with the Chargers just because I'm a Bears Fan!
Well I must say don't go with the Chargers just because I'm a Bears Fan!
Even if you look at it from a neutral mindset, a San Diego win is far from a guarantee. The Bears are a very good team.
If it were me, I'd probably go with Seattle over Tampa Bay. St. Louis should also win too, though.
Walter
09-03-2007, 05:25 PM
I'm leaning toward Seattle right now.
swifty222
09-04-2007, 07:28 PM
I'm leaning toward Seattle right now.
Good pick on Dallas at home...
Eeesh, he went with a divisional game. Even though it's damn close to a sure thing, I'd still be a little uneasy.
GatorFan
09-04-2007, 08:47 PM
Just found you guys on the web. Great Forum! I've been in two survivor pools each year for the past 8 years or so. I agree with your rules for eliminating teams from consideration.
However, I would add one more: No Inter-divisional games. Too often even the underdog catches "lightning in a bottle".
So, all that considered, my pick is SEATTLE. I think they meet the critiria the strongest.
co-sign on Seattle
I wouldn't risk betting against VY.....he is capable of anything
Walter
09-05-2007, 01:25 AM
Just found you guys on the web. Great Forum! I've been in two survivor pools each year for the past 8 years or so. I agree with your rules for eliminating teams from consideration.
However, I would add one more: No Inter-divisional games. Too often even the underdog catches "lightning in a bottle".
So, all that considered, my pick is SEATTLE. I think they meet the critiria the strongest.
I like your rule. Last year, I lost in Week 16, picking Atlanta over Carolina (they were starting Chris Weinke).
Seattle is getting hit at 89 percent, but there aren't many bets on them.
I'm going to change this. I'm going with Seattle.