MMONTERO
11-10-2008, 11:52 PM
Alright... here's a mock based on records and power rankings alone. This order assumes that Arizona wins against San Francisco tonight.
1. Detroit Lions - QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Calvin Johnson will not be able to sleep for excitement after January if Sam Bradford declares for the draft. That's because his Lions will have the first pick and he will finally get a quarterback who can actually throw him the ball. The Lions have yet to test Drew Stanton but reports out of training camp show that he couldn't throw a spiral when he first got to Detroit. That doesn't seem very promising. Daunte Culpepper isn't the future either. Enter Sam Bradford. As only a redshirt sophomore the guy has already thrown for 3,406 yards, 38 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. He is easily the best quarterback prospect in college and should translate to the NFL very successfully.
2. Kansas City Chiefs - T Michael Oher, Ole Miss
The Chiefs need a quarterback but there really isn't one worth taking in this spot. Instead, they will nab Oher to replace the struggling Branden Albert. Presumptively, the Chiefs would move Albert to left guard to make way for Oher giving the Chiefs a dominant left side to run Larry Johnson behind. Oher may be the best offensive tackle prospect since Orlando Pace but many have moved Andre Smith and Eugene Monroe above him on their big boards. Don't be fooled. Oher should and will be the first tackle taken in the 2009 NFL Draft.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - DE Brian Orakpo, Texas
We've all heard about Cincinnati's offensive problems and whatnot but their defense is not stopping anyone. Justin Smith may have been an overrated player but he was their best defensive end and his loss has had a negative effect on the Bengals defense as a whole. Brian Orakpo is flying up draft boards and for good reason. He has shown a consistent ability to rush the passer while racking up 8.5 sacks against very good left tackles such as Philip Loadholt of Oklahoma. He should be the pass-rushing force Cincinnati needs on their defensive line.
4. Oakland Raiders - WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
A lot of fuss is made about Al Davis's love of 40 times and for good reason. It often seems like that's all Darth Raider looks at when evaluating draft prospects. But I don't see him passing up Michael Crabtree. Crabtree's 78 receptions for 1,010 yards and a mind-boggling 18 touchdowns are too much to overlook. Those are the kind of numbers that would make a guy like Darth Raider accidentally pick a very good prospect.
5. San Francisco 49ers - QB Matt Stafford, Georgia
First off, most of you know that I hate Matt Stafford and feel he will be a bust. Unfortunately, I have been forced to accept the reality that most people don't agree with me on this. The 49ers are not getting good play from the quarterback position and that needs to change. A new coach will want his own quarterback and I'm afraid Stafford will be that guy. Despite the fact that Georgia wins games because of Knowshon Moreno despite of Matt Stafford, he will likely be a top 10 pick come next April.
6. St. Louis Rams - T Eugene Monroe, Virginia
The Rams need a left tackle to replace the aging Orlando Pace. Eugene Monroe of Virginia is a steal at #6 overall. He has really come on this year and helped the Cavaliers have a decent season, something that seemed highly unlikely just two months ago. He would not be much of a downgrade from Pace in his prime.
7. Seattle Seahawks - RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
When I said the Seahawks would draft a running back back in September people called me crazy. Why, they asked, when Julius Jones is having such a productive year, would Seattle draft a running back? Why, I asked in response, do you think Jones will continue that elite production over the course of a full season? I'd take a bow but that would seem a little ****y. So I'll just point out that Knowshon Moreno has been having an incredible season and now should easily be considered the best running back prospect in the draft.
8. Cleveland Browns - CB Victor Harris, Virginia Tech
The Browns need better play from their defensive backfield. Victor Harris has established himself as the best corner prospect in this draft by having a much better than expected 2008 campaign. This pick should be a no-brainer for the Browns.
9. Houston Texans - S Taylor Mays, USC
When I watch Taylor Mays play and see his size and athleticism it reminds me of one player - Sean Taylor. The Texans desperately need help on defense, particularly in the secondary, and Taylor Mays is an absolute freak.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
I now have two corners picked over Vontae Davis who seems to be tops on most draft boards at the position. Why? See Davis only has one interception on the year. His coverage skills are great but turnovers make and break games in the NFL and I feel that interception total should be enough to drop his value significantly. Jenkins is the complete package at corner as he is a solid cover corner with good run skills.
11. San Diego Chargers - ILB Rey Maualuga, USC
Mauluga falls out of the top 10 only because of the lack of demand at his position in the NFL. However, he is a solid top 5 value and a hell of a player. Maualuga seems to be everywhere on the field at once and has the great instincts that call to mind Lawrence Taylor. This guy should be a force to be reckoned with from day 1.
12. New Orleans Saints - S William Moore, Missouri
This pick doesn't need much explaining. Basically, the Saints take the best player available in the secondary and on my board that is William Moore, who has had a solid year on an otherwise mediocre Mizzou D.
13. Green Bay Packers - DE Greg Hardy, Ole Miss
I would like to apologize to everyone I bashed for putting Hardy in the first round of their mock drafts earlier in the year. Hardy has outplayed the likes of George Selvie and Tyson Jackson, both of whom I had as high first-round picks over the summer. The Packers have few needs but their defensive line has been disappointing without Corey Williams, which has exposed a lot of the mediocre defensive linemen in their rotation. Hardy is a solid pass rusher who should help the Packers stop the run in a division with plenty of talented, young, running backs.
14. Indianapolis Colts - DT Vance Walker, Georgia Tech
The Colts' defensive line has been ravaged by dope and plain inconsistency but nowhere more so than at defensive tackle. No one is talking about Vance Walker's exceptional performance on Georgia Tech's defensive line but my money is on the very talented Colts' GM Bill Polian noticing it. Walker should easily be the top defensive tackle taken on draft day.
15. Miami Dolphins - QB Tim Tebow, Florida
Okay, this one takes a lot of explaining but hear me out and then hate. For the record, all hate will be ignored but respected as there are so many factors that could derail this pick. Let's go through why this pick is a possibility that I consider to be a strong one.
1. Chad Pennington will be 33 in 2009.
2. Bill Parcells clearly does not like John Beck and doesn't feel he deserves a chance.
3. The Wildcat formation. This is the key for me. If Miami is really dedicated to the Wildcat formation then Tebow is a scary thought for opposing defenses. Essentially, Tebow would open up the Wildcat formation quite a bit. He would allow for disguised Wildcat-style plays plus he has the athleticism to flank out to wide receiver and actually be a threat unlike Chad Pennington. While I don't think Tebow is a first-round prospect I think a big exception can be made in the case of Miami.
16. Minnesota Vikings - QB Mark Sanchez, USC
I think this pick is a bit of a reach but the Vikings need for a quarterback trumps everything here. They will take the best quarterback available and that is clearly Sanchez at this point.
17. Detroit Lions (from Dallas) - T Andre Smith, Alabama
When the Lions traded down and took Gosder Cherilus many of us on Walterfootball.com scratched our heads and wondered why they passed up on Rashard Mendenhall for a player who really projects to be more of a right tackle than a left tackle. Well Cherilus can comfortably play right tackle when Andre Smith comes to town. Andre Smith will protect Sam Bradford's blind side for the foreseeable future.
18. Buffalo Bills - TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State
One of the reasons Oklahoma State has had such a great year is the surprising play of Pettigrew. Robert Royal is by no means an elite tight end and Pettigrew will provide Trent Edwards and elite outlet for when the play starts to break down in addition to another dangerous receiver for opponents to game plan against.
19. Philadelphia Eagles - T Ciron Black, LSU
The Eagles need more help on their interior line as their tackles are only old, not bad but Ciron Black is too good to pass up in this spot.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Percy Harvin, Florida
The Buccaneers have one decent receiver in Antonio Bryant. Unfortunately, Bryant is more of a possession receiver. Harvin will inject a whole new element into the Buccaneers offense and he's home-grown out of Florida. Harvin has game-breaking skills but needs to prove that he can stay healthy to be a solid first-round prospect.
21. Denver Broncos - ILB James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
The Broncos' D is not scaring anyone and they know it. This is really the BPA formula but MLB also happens to be their biggest need on defense.
22. N.Y. Jets - RB Chris Wells, Ohio State
Chris Wells should NOT fall this far in the draft but he does due to a couple factors.
1. lack of demand at the position
2. demanding needs for many teams that would potentially draft him ahead of the Jets
Regardless, the Jets get an absolute steal here.
23. Atlanta Falcons - DT Sen'Derrick Marks, Auburn
Sen'Derrick Marks has shown a lot of ability this season for a slightly undersized defensive tackle. Over the summer no one would have dreamed Atlanta could be picking this high but now it seems very possible and Marks will be a solid addition to an overachieving defense.
24. Chicago Bears - CB Trevard Lindley, Kentucky
The Bears don't really need a corner badly but they should draft one. Reason: Their current group can't seem to stay healthy for a full season. Lindley is one of the more underrated players in this draft class but is a prototypical shutdown-type corner.
25. New England Patriots - CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
The Patriots should take the BPA in their secondary. That player is Vontae Davis and he should improve a Patriots secondary that will have less pressure on it to stop opposing teams next year with the return of Tom Brady.
26. Baltimore Ravens - TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
Todd Heap has been a nonfactor all year and his age is showing. The Ravens need a younger replacement at a position whose importance seems to grow every year. Gresham is the best tight end who hasn't assaulted a cop in this draft class.
27. Arizona Cardinals - G Duke Robinson, Oklahoma
The Cardinals need interior line help and Robinson is a Steve Hutchinson-type guard who should help pave the way for Tim Hightower.
28. Washington Redskins - DE George Selvie, South Florida
The Redskins need secondary help much more than they need defensive line help but there isn't much value here at corner. So they'll pick the underachieving George Selvie from South Florida and hope for the best.
29. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina) - S Nic Harris, Oklahoma
Nic Harris doesn't get talked about enough and it's a shame. He's one of the better players in this draft class. I see him sneaking in late in the first round and the Eagles need a replacement for Brian Dawkins.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers - C Alex Mack, California
This is the BPA for the interior offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger is having a solid year so it's scary to think what he could do if he didn't spend 75% of the time on his back with a 300 pound defensive tackle on top of him.
31. Tennessee Titans - WR Juaquin Iglesias, Oklahoma
I don't see the Titans passing on a receiver again so Iglesias will be the pick. Iglesias has been much more productive than Heyward-Bey has for Maryland and so he gets the edge.
32. New York Giants - OLB Sean Witherspoon, Missouri
Frankly, the Giants don't need much but they could use an outside backer so Kiwanuka can permanently stay in the rotation on the defensive line with the return of Umenyiora next year. Witherspoon has outplayed Cushing and Curry to this point.
1. Detroit Lions - QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Calvin Johnson will not be able to sleep for excitement after January if Sam Bradford declares for the draft. That's because his Lions will have the first pick and he will finally get a quarterback who can actually throw him the ball. The Lions have yet to test Drew Stanton but reports out of training camp show that he couldn't throw a spiral when he first got to Detroit. That doesn't seem very promising. Daunte Culpepper isn't the future either. Enter Sam Bradford. As only a redshirt sophomore the guy has already thrown for 3,406 yards, 38 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. He is easily the best quarterback prospect in college and should translate to the NFL very successfully.
2. Kansas City Chiefs - T Michael Oher, Ole Miss
The Chiefs need a quarterback but there really isn't one worth taking in this spot. Instead, they will nab Oher to replace the struggling Branden Albert. Presumptively, the Chiefs would move Albert to left guard to make way for Oher giving the Chiefs a dominant left side to run Larry Johnson behind. Oher may be the best offensive tackle prospect since Orlando Pace but many have moved Andre Smith and Eugene Monroe above him on their big boards. Don't be fooled. Oher should and will be the first tackle taken in the 2009 NFL Draft.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - DE Brian Orakpo, Texas
We've all heard about Cincinnati's offensive problems and whatnot but their defense is not stopping anyone. Justin Smith may have been an overrated player but he was their best defensive end and his loss has had a negative effect on the Bengals defense as a whole. Brian Orakpo is flying up draft boards and for good reason. He has shown a consistent ability to rush the passer while racking up 8.5 sacks against very good left tackles such as Philip Loadholt of Oklahoma. He should be the pass-rushing force Cincinnati needs on their defensive line.
4. Oakland Raiders - WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
A lot of fuss is made about Al Davis's love of 40 times and for good reason. It often seems like that's all Darth Raider looks at when evaluating draft prospects. But I don't see him passing up Michael Crabtree. Crabtree's 78 receptions for 1,010 yards and a mind-boggling 18 touchdowns are too much to overlook. Those are the kind of numbers that would make a guy like Darth Raider accidentally pick a very good prospect.
5. San Francisco 49ers - QB Matt Stafford, Georgia
First off, most of you know that I hate Matt Stafford and feel he will be a bust. Unfortunately, I have been forced to accept the reality that most people don't agree with me on this. The 49ers are not getting good play from the quarterback position and that needs to change. A new coach will want his own quarterback and I'm afraid Stafford will be that guy. Despite the fact that Georgia wins games because of Knowshon Moreno despite of Matt Stafford, he will likely be a top 10 pick come next April.
6. St. Louis Rams - T Eugene Monroe, Virginia
The Rams need a left tackle to replace the aging Orlando Pace. Eugene Monroe of Virginia is a steal at #6 overall. He has really come on this year and helped the Cavaliers have a decent season, something that seemed highly unlikely just two months ago. He would not be much of a downgrade from Pace in his prime.
7. Seattle Seahawks - RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
When I said the Seahawks would draft a running back back in September people called me crazy. Why, they asked, when Julius Jones is having such a productive year, would Seattle draft a running back? Why, I asked in response, do you think Jones will continue that elite production over the course of a full season? I'd take a bow but that would seem a little ****y. So I'll just point out that Knowshon Moreno has been having an incredible season and now should easily be considered the best running back prospect in the draft.
8. Cleveland Browns - CB Victor Harris, Virginia Tech
The Browns need better play from their defensive backfield. Victor Harris has established himself as the best corner prospect in this draft by having a much better than expected 2008 campaign. This pick should be a no-brainer for the Browns.
9. Houston Texans - S Taylor Mays, USC
When I watch Taylor Mays play and see his size and athleticism it reminds me of one player - Sean Taylor. The Texans desperately need help on defense, particularly in the secondary, and Taylor Mays is an absolute freak.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
I now have two corners picked over Vontae Davis who seems to be tops on most draft boards at the position. Why? See Davis only has one interception on the year. His coverage skills are great but turnovers make and break games in the NFL and I feel that interception total should be enough to drop his value significantly. Jenkins is the complete package at corner as he is a solid cover corner with good run skills.
11. San Diego Chargers - ILB Rey Maualuga, USC
Mauluga falls out of the top 10 only because of the lack of demand at his position in the NFL. However, he is a solid top 5 value and a hell of a player. Maualuga seems to be everywhere on the field at once and has the great instincts that call to mind Lawrence Taylor. This guy should be a force to be reckoned with from day 1.
12. New Orleans Saints - S William Moore, Missouri
This pick doesn't need much explaining. Basically, the Saints take the best player available in the secondary and on my board that is William Moore, who has had a solid year on an otherwise mediocre Mizzou D.
13. Green Bay Packers - DE Greg Hardy, Ole Miss
I would like to apologize to everyone I bashed for putting Hardy in the first round of their mock drafts earlier in the year. Hardy has outplayed the likes of George Selvie and Tyson Jackson, both of whom I had as high first-round picks over the summer. The Packers have few needs but their defensive line has been disappointing without Corey Williams, which has exposed a lot of the mediocre defensive linemen in their rotation. Hardy is a solid pass rusher who should help the Packers stop the run in a division with plenty of talented, young, running backs.
14. Indianapolis Colts - DT Vance Walker, Georgia Tech
The Colts' defensive line has been ravaged by dope and plain inconsistency but nowhere more so than at defensive tackle. No one is talking about Vance Walker's exceptional performance on Georgia Tech's defensive line but my money is on the very talented Colts' GM Bill Polian noticing it. Walker should easily be the top defensive tackle taken on draft day.
15. Miami Dolphins - QB Tim Tebow, Florida
Okay, this one takes a lot of explaining but hear me out and then hate. For the record, all hate will be ignored but respected as there are so many factors that could derail this pick. Let's go through why this pick is a possibility that I consider to be a strong one.
1. Chad Pennington will be 33 in 2009.
2. Bill Parcells clearly does not like John Beck and doesn't feel he deserves a chance.
3. The Wildcat formation. This is the key for me. If Miami is really dedicated to the Wildcat formation then Tebow is a scary thought for opposing defenses. Essentially, Tebow would open up the Wildcat formation quite a bit. He would allow for disguised Wildcat-style plays plus he has the athleticism to flank out to wide receiver and actually be a threat unlike Chad Pennington. While I don't think Tebow is a first-round prospect I think a big exception can be made in the case of Miami.
16. Minnesota Vikings - QB Mark Sanchez, USC
I think this pick is a bit of a reach but the Vikings need for a quarterback trumps everything here. They will take the best quarterback available and that is clearly Sanchez at this point.
17. Detroit Lions (from Dallas) - T Andre Smith, Alabama
When the Lions traded down and took Gosder Cherilus many of us on Walterfootball.com scratched our heads and wondered why they passed up on Rashard Mendenhall for a player who really projects to be more of a right tackle than a left tackle. Well Cherilus can comfortably play right tackle when Andre Smith comes to town. Andre Smith will protect Sam Bradford's blind side for the foreseeable future.
18. Buffalo Bills - TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State
One of the reasons Oklahoma State has had such a great year is the surprising play of Pettigrew. Robert Royal is by no means an elite tight end and Pettigrew will provide Trent Edwards and elite outlet for when the play starts to break down in addition to another dangerous receiver for opponents to game plan against.
19. Philadelphia Eagles - T Ciron Black, LSU
The Eagles need more help on their interior line as their tackles are only old, not bad but Ciron Black is too good to pass up in this spot.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Percy Harvin, Florida
The Buccaneers have one decent receiver in Antonio Bryant. Unfortunately, Bryant is more of a possession receiver. Harvin will inject a whole new element into the Buccaneers offense and he's home-grown out of Florida. Harvin has game-breaking skills but needs to prove that he can stay healthy to be a solid first-round prospect.
21. Denver Broncos - ILB James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
The Broncos' D is not scaring anyone and they know it. This is really the BPA formula but MLB also happens to be their biggest need on defense.
22. N.Y. Jets - RB Chris Wells, Ohio State
Chris Wells should NOT fall this far in the draft but he does due to a couple factors.
1. lack of demand at the position
2. demanding needs for many teams that would potentially draft him ahead of the Jets
Regardless, the Jets get an absolute steal here.
23. Atlanta Falcons - DT Sen'Derrick Marks, Auburn
Sen'Derrick Marks has shown a lot of ability this season for a slightly undersized defensive tackle. Over the summer no one would have dreamed Atlanta could be picking this high but now it seems very possible and Marks will be a solid addition to an overachieving defense.
24. Chicago Bears - CB Trevard Lindley, Kentucky
The Bears don't really need a corner badly but they should draft one. Reason: Their current group can't seem to stay healthy for a full season. Lindley is one of the more underrated players in this draft class but is a prototypical shutdown-type corner.
25. New England Patriots - CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
The Patriots should take the BPA in their secondary. That player is Vontae Davis and he should improve a Patriots secondary that will have less pressure on it to stop opposing teams next year with the return of Tom Brady.
26. Baltimore Ravens - TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
Todd Heap has been a nonfactor all year and his age is showing. The Ravens need a younger replacement at a position whose importance seems to grow every year. Gresham is the best tight end who hasn't assaulted a cop in this draft class.
27. Arizona Cardinals - G Duke Robinson, Oklahoma
The Cardinals need interior line help and Robinson is a Steve Hutchinson-type guard who should help pave the way for Tim Hightower.
28. Washington Redskins - DE George Selvie, South Florida
The Redskins need secondary help much more than they need defensive line help but there isn't much value here at corner. So they'll pick the underachieving George Selvie from South Florida and hope for the best.
29. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina) - S Nic Harris, Oklahoma
Nic Harris doesn't get talked about enough and it's a shame. He's one of the better players in this draft class. I see him sneaking in late in the first round and the Eagles need a replacement for Brian Dawkins.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers - C Alex Mack, California
This is the BPA for the interior offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger is having a solid year so it's scary to think what he could do if he didn't spend 75% of the time on his back with a 300 pound defensive tackle on top of him.
31. Tennessee Titans - WR Juaquin Iglesias, Oklahoma
I don't see the Titans passing on a receiver again so Iglesias will be the pick. Iglesias has been much more productive than Heyward-Bey has for Maryland and so he gets the edge.
32. New York Giants - OLB Sean Witherspoon, Missouri
Frankly, the Giants don't need much but they could use an outside backer so Kiwanuka can permanently stay in the rotation on the defensive line with the return of Umenyiora next year. Witherspoon has outplayed Cushing and Curry to this point.