McShay's Top 15 Quarterbacks

[Matt McGuire]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft09/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=3805874

1. Sam Bradford*, Oklahoma
2. Mark Sanchez*, USC
3. Matthew Stafford*, Georgia
4. Nate Davis*, Ball State
5. Josh Freeman*, Kansas State
6. Tim Tebow*, Florida
7. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech
8. Rhett Bomar, Sam Houston State
9. Mike Reilly, Central Washington
10. Drew Willy, Buffalo
11. Nate Brown, Central Arkansas
12. John Parker Wilson, Alabama
13. Chase Daniel, Missouri
14. Cullen Harper, Clemson
15. Curtis Painter, Purdue

Stafford #3 behind of Sanchez? What is this guy smoking?

[DarkoBWM]

Stafford is #3 BEHIND Sanchez..

[JHG722]

Tebow+Willy>Freeman

[beastmode]

I'm officially back to being a Stafford hater. He has a cannon arm, great mechanics, and an excellent deep ball. However, he is wildly inconsistent. He flashes good mobility and pocket presense, but other times sits in the pocket too long. He also often doesn't set his feet when under pressure, resulting in some horrendous looking throws.

[MattCarsonJohnMarkCarroll]

Sanchez is better than Stafford Matt. You know he is, but you've already convinced yourself about some crazy theory about only the Georgia offense only running deep routes.

[Matt McGuire]

Sanchez is better than Stafford Matt. You know he is, but you've already convinced yourself about some crazy theory about only the Georgia offense only running deep routes.

Why does it matter? Sanchez isn't declaring, he also showed me too much inconsistency in the last two months of the season to put him above Stafford.

I'd also like to remind you I was one of THE FIRST to put Sanchez in my mock draft.

[MattCarsonJohnMarkCarroll]

LOL First other than me.... but yes he probably will declare now.

[Matt McGuire]

LOL First other than me.... but yes he probably will declare now.

What website do you write for again?

[MattCarsonJohnMarkCarroll]

Understandable, but ask Walter. I told him about a year ago Mark Sanchez should be the 1st QB selected in the 2009 draft.

[Matt McGuire]

Awesome. I love Sanchez. I really do. I don't know why you are criticizing me.

Just wait for my 2010 mock.

[MattCarsonJohnMarkCarroll]

Mark will declare for this draft, I don't want him to but the writing is on the wall. Aaron Corp, Mitch Mustain and Matt Barkley will battle it out in the spring.

[Matt McGuire]

Leinart and Palmer returned....I think he is coming back with the rest of the offense.

[MattCarsonJohnMarkCarroll]

If he does watch out for a 50pts per game pro style offense.

[titan_qb_3]

Tebow+Willy>Freeman

Haha that's funny. Buffalo fan?

[MockDraftXpert]

Stafford>Sanchez

I'm not a huge fan of Stafford's, but he's better than Sanchez.

[DarkoBWM]

LOL First other than me.... but yes he probably will declare now.Sanchez won't declare for the draft, no point in doing so. He'd be the #1 QB and possibly #1 pick next season.

[JHG722]

Haha that's funny. Buffalo fan?

No, I go to Temple, actually.

[BroncosCon]

I like how Painter has dropped so much

[MattCarsonJohnMarkCarroll]

Stafford>Sanchez

I'm not a huge fan of Stafford's, but he's better than Sanchez.

Arm strength is the only advantage Stafford has over Sanchez. Sanchez is more accurate, makes better reads, has better mechanics, and is a high end intangibles guy unlike Stafford.

[beastmode]

Is Chase Daniel really better than Cullen Harper?

[Craig Smith]

For Stafford, unfortunately i only caught the first half of the Capital One Bowl. And in that first half, Stafford looked horrible. I understand he turned it on in the second half, but I didn't see that, and what I was in the first half was a guy that had trouble setting his feet, his accuracy was inconsistent, and he had a lot of wobble on most of his passes. And he tried to force a few of them. He just wasn't accurate enough to put the ball where only his guy can catch it.

But at the same time he wasn't asked to throw too much. they relied heavily on the running game which also probably helped keep Stafford from sliding into a rhythm with receivers.

Sanchez on the other hand looked elite vs Penn State, and correct me if I am wrong but didn't he go on to set a couple of Rose Bowl passing records?

If i were a GM i would have them both close, and would have to seriously evaluate both at the combine if they both declare. Barring a meltdown in the BCS title game, Bradford is still my hands down #1.

[Joey_Potter]

Im not a QB expert but I can say that Stafford rarely makes mistakes and I have seen Sanchez make many. Stafford #2 or #1.

[Matt McGuire]

Guys, let's remember Stafford is just a junior.

[Craig Smith]

Guys, let's remember Stafford is just a junior.

That kind of a mute point Matt, everyone we are talking about, whether it be Bradford, Stafford, Sanchez, McCoy or Freeman are all juniors. Well Bradford is technically a sophmore since he was redshirt.

[NoNonsenseCoach]

I don't care about Staffords inconsistency or accuracy or arm strength nearly as much as I care about his leadership and toughness, and I don't see a great QB in that department. I'd have the same top 3 as McShay.

[PuppyPuncher]

I think Stafford's tough, he was taking some big hits on those big plays that he made against LSU.

[cutty]

I think Stafford's tough, he was taking some big hits on those big plays that he made against LSU.

Agreed. I think its ridiculous that anyone question's his toughness, he's had some of the most inconsistent O-Line play I've seen out of a big program. If he stuck around for his senior year with an improved line and a potential star in A.J. Green, he'd put up Carson Palmer numbers.

I'm still on the fence on Sanchez. He looks great out there most of the time, but I do question some of his physical tools. Plus you've gotta be worried about any QB with that much injury history and that little mobility, its a season-ender for an NFL team

[BroncosCon]

My 2 cents:

Stafford doesn't look like a system QB, he isn't in a pro-style offense. His arm strength is elite. No one thought Matt Ryan would do **** in the NFL either.

The more I see Sanchez, the more I think of Leinart. Is he just a west coast offense guy? I don't know...

Bradford is very good, but I don't think he will declare, so it's kinda moot for this draft. I think he can play in any system.

[MattCarsonJohnMarkCarroll]

Agreed. I think its ridiculous that anyone question's his toughness, he's had some of the most inconsistent O-Line play I've seen out of a big program. If he stuck around for his senior year with an improved line and a potential star in A.J. Green, he'd put up Carson Palmer numbers.

I'm still on the fence on Sanchez. He looks great out there most of the time, but I do question some of his physical tools. Plus you've gotta be worried about any QB with that much injury history and that little mobility, its a season-ender for an NFL team

So I take it you have never watched him play??

[cutty]

So I take it you have never watched him play??

"That little mobility" might be a little harsh, but there's still a lot of risk with him for the reasons I said.

[cutty]

My 2 cents:

Stafford doesn't look like a system QB, he isn't in a pro-style offense.His arm strength is elite. No one thought Matt Ryan would do **** in the NFL either

Georgia runs a pro-style offense

[BroncosCon]

Georgia runs a pro-style offense

Ok, barely.

[EL Guapo]

[QUOTE=cutty;140291]Agreed. I think its ridiculous that anyone question's his toughness, he's had some of the most inconsistent O-Line play I've seen out of a big program. If he stuck around for his senior year with an improved line and a potential star in A.J. Green, he'd put up Carson Palmer numbers.

I noticed that too when I watched Georgia a couple of times. The O-line was not good.

[Bluto]

When I see Sanchez under center, he just looks like a pro ready QB. Moreso than any of the other QBs out there. That doesn't mean he's neccesarily better, he just has the "presence" of a real leader on the field.

[NoNonsenseCoach]

Agreed. I think its ridiculous that anyone question's his toughness, he's had some of the most inconsistent O-Line play I've seen out of a big program. If he stuck around for his senior year with an improved line and a potential star in A.J. Green, he'd put up Carson Palmer numbers.

I'm still on the fence on Sanchez. He looks great out there most of the time, but I do question some of his physical tools. Plus you've gotta be worried about any QB with that much injury history and that little mobility, its a season-ender for an NFL team

He shy's away from hits which causes some of his accuracy problems. This will be magnified in the NFL.

[cutty]

He shy's away from hits which causes some of his accuracy problems. This will be magnified in the NFL.

Just like every other quarterback who's ever played (except Tom Brady). He's also stepped into throws and gotten layed out immediately after releasing the football plenty of times. He's human

He's not even close to being as bad as Eli or Romo

[Warpig]

For Stafford, unfortunately i only caught the first half of the Capital One Bowl. And in that first half, Stafford looked horrible. I understand he turned it on in the second half, but I didn't see that, and what I was in the first half was a guy that had trouble setting his feet, his accuracy was inconsistent, and he had a lot of wobble on most of his passes. And he tried to force a few of them. He just wasn't accurate enough to put the ball where only his guy can catch it.

But at the same time he wasn't asked to throw too much. they relied heavily on the running game which also probably helped keep Stafford from sliding into a rhythm with receivers.

Sanchez on the other hand looked elite vs Penn State, and correct me if I am wrong but didn't he go on to set a couple of Rose Bowl passing records?

If i were a GM i would have them both close, and would have to seriously evaluate both at the combine if they both declare. Barring a meltdown in the BCS title game, Bradford is still my hands down #1.

Wait...I thought we were talking about Stafford, NOT Eli Manning. Both are overrated. Too many people put too much emphasis on arm strength. I'd rather have a leader that can run an offense with little to no mistakes and be tough. I'll take Tebow over Stafford. We're starting to learn as much about Eli as well. Sure, they are good with a surrounding cast, but can't carry the burden on their shoulders if it comes to that.

[NoNonsenseCoach]

Eli doesn't do that, are you kidding me? He takes a beating. He took a beating at Ole Miss, and he takes one in the NFL.

Romo does... that's why he throws a bunch of INTs and is a bad QB late in the year. That's why someone like Ed Reed can say "I don't need to make plays, just wait for Romo to make mistakes." Difference between Stafford and Romo is that Staffor won't play on Dallas with tons of talent around him to disguise his flaws. Also, his organization might not be filled with a bunch of selfish go getters who only care about them self They might actually want to look at their QB as a leader, and if he can't step into his throws and take a hit on a regular basis then why should they lay it on the line for him?

[cutty]

Eli doesn't do that, are you kidding me? He takes a beating. He took a beating at Ole Miss, and he takes one in the NFL.

Romo does... that's why he throws a bunch of INTs and is a bad QB late in the year. That's why someone like Ed Reed can say "I don't need to make plays, just wait for Romo to make mistakes." Difference between Stafford and Romo is that Staffor won't play on Dallas with tons of talent around him to disguise his flaws. Also, his organization might not be filled with a bunch of selfish go getters who only care about them self They might actually want to look at their QB as a leader, and if he can't step into his throws and take a hit on a regular basis then why should they lay it on the line for him?

Are you kidding me? Until last season, Eli would turn his shoulder away from the tackler EVERY single time he was throwing under pressure. He's gotten MUCH better at it, but he still throws it up for grabs quite a bit when the pocket starts collapsing. When he has time, he's top 5. When there's pressure, he's bottom 5

Agree 100% with all of your Romo/Dallas comments. As for Stafford, I've seen him dip his shoulder to avoid contact, I've also seen him do the right thing and take the beating. Its tough to judge how big the kid's balls are, but my gut tells me he'll be fine in that regard. He's 20 years old and he's a PROSPECT. I'm judging him on the player I think he will develop into

[IlliniVikeFan23]

Stafford #3 behind of Sanchez? What is this guy smoking?

The same stuff you used to be on when you had that. Everyone in the world knew Stafford would be a top 5 pick before the season other than you, bandwagon jumper. :)

EDIT: I should say "everyone in the world WITH A CLUE" knew that. ;)

[Fatphil33]

Agreed. I think its ridiculous that anyone question's his toughness, he's had some of the most inconsistent O-Line play I've seen out of a big program. If he stuck around for his senior year with an improved line and a potential star in A.J. Green, he'd put up Carson Palmer numbers.

I noticed that too when I watched Georgia a couple of times. The O-line was not good.

He's basically the same prospect Palmer was. Whenever I see him play, I instantly think of Palmer.

And I believe Georgia's starting LT was out for the year this year. That certainly doesn't help.

[SoChillLax]

Chase Daniel isn't as good as Curtis Painter or Cullen Harper

Whoever picks up Painter could very well get a Tom Brady

[cutty]

Chase Daniel isn't as good as Curtis Painter or Cullen Harper

Whoever picks up Painter could very well get a Tom Brady

That cliche is really getting tired. You understand that getting a "Tom Brady" is a 1 out of 1 trillion chance right? Its hard enough to get a starting caliber quarterback in the 1st round

[Matt McGuire]

The same stuff you used to be on when you had that. Everyone in the world knew Stafford would be a top 5 pick before the season other than you, bandwagon jumper. :)

EDIT: I should say "everyone in the world WITH A CLUE" knew that. ;)

Smilies don't hide sarcasm.

[gibsonguy81]

I noticed everyone was talking about their picks for QB's this year that they made last year. I remember arguing with someone here about Tebow not being a QB in the NFL and Stafford being the top pick this year... I think Matt backed me on that too... Seems we were right.

[Matt McGuire]

He shy's away from hits which causes some of his accuracy problems. This will be magnified in the NFL.

Bradford does not even get hit. We have no idea whether he is tough or not.

I think Stafford is tougher than you are letting on. I saw him step into throws then get hit several times this year.

[IlliniVikeFan23]

Smilies don't hide sarcasm.

[PuppyPuncher]

That doesn't even make sense.

[Matt McGuire]

LOL It is hilarious because Jared Gaither looks pissed...like I could imagine him saying that.

[NoNonsenseCoach]

Bradford does not even get hit. We have no idea whether he is tough or not.

I think Stafford is tougher than you are letting on. I saw him step into throws then get hit several times this year.

Maybe he is, he has time to sway me, but for now that's my assessment.

As for Bradford, I'm not completely sold on him, I'm just anticipating that I will be. He still has the biggest game of his life to play tomorrow. It will show a lot, but if he's the QB I saw all season I expect him to deliver.

[Matt McGuire]

Maybe he is, he has time to sway me, but for now that's my assessment.

As for Bradford, I'm not completely sold on him, I'm just anticipating that I will be. He still has the biggest game of his life to play tomorrow. It will show a lot, but if he's the QB I saw all season I expect him to deliver.

He has time to sway you? One game?

I do not believe any one game should be a huge part of an evaluation. It is one slice of the pie. These players are not going to be playing in a Championship game every game in the NFL.

Is it important? Yes, but I look at it within the grand scheme of things.

[gibsonguy81]

I graduated from OU last year and was not impressed with Bradford's NFL potential when I watched their games. The few times he got rushed he panicked and got hurt (fragile?). He's looked better this year, but is no sure thing. He reminds me a lot of Joey Harrington...

[Matt McGuire]

That's an interesting comparison because people loved Joey Harrington too. I still don't get why he was so bad in the NFL...only rationale was he wasn't tough.

[gibsonguy81]

I liked Harrington in college and was sad for him when things fell apart in the pros. The Lions were a lose/lose situation for him and he never recovered. Bradford reminds me of him because he could end up in the same situation. The Lions are terrible and he is a guy who has never really left the Norman,OK area. He's from Putnam City (about 20 miles from Norman) and played his college ball down the road. I'm not overly impressed with his arm and could see him falling apart if the Detroit fans start to boo... Of course that's speculation, he may be great.

[cutty]

That's an interesting comparison because people loved Joey Harrington too. I still don't get why he was so bad in the NFL...only rationale was he wasn't tough.

To me Bradford is a Kurt Warner clone. Same release, same accuaracy, and the ability to pick a defense apart given a pocket

[Matt McGuire]

I think it all depends in what they give their QB in terms of pass protection.

[Matt McGuire]

To me Bradford is a Kurt Warner clone. Same release, same accuaracy, and the ability to pick a defense apart given a pocket

Bradford's release to me looks little weird, but their arm strength and accuracy are very similar, so that's a solid comparison.

[cutty]

Bradford's release to me looks little weird, but their arm strength and accuracy are very similar, so that's a solid comparison.

Really? I think he's got an amazing release. I have no idea what he'll be like under fire, but he gets rid of it as fast as anyone when he makes his read

[gibsonguy81]

Kurt Warner didn't make it in the league until he was older. I don't question Bradford based on overall skills. I just question if he can be a leader of a bad team and ignore criticism. He succeeds at OU with great support, and Warner only succeeds when he has great support. Warner looked mediocre to poor as a Giant, but great when he has Fitzgerald, Bolden, Holt, or Bruce catching passes. It's a solid comparison, but we must remember Warner succeeded after several years of maturing out of the spotlight, and had an awesome supporting cast.

[MANimal]

McShay is a douche. Who are his top 15 punters?

[ZN0rseman]

Sanchez on the other hand looked elite vs Penn State

He looked elite versus Penn State's defense mostly because Penn State's defensive backs are horribly undersized and Sanchez's receivers were all over 6'. Seriously, I think Penn State was a great football team, but that was by far the worst strength versus weakness matchup among all of the bowl games.

Also, Harrington struggled in the pros because he always played for teams with zero offensive line and no good receivers to throw the ball to.

[Matt McGuire]

Hey guys check out my Todd McFraud look-a-like

http://walterfootball.com/forum/showpost.php?p=141027&postcount=21

[Matt McGuire]

He looked elite versus Penn State's defense mostly because Penn State's corners are horribly undersized at about 5'2, and Sanchez's receivers were all over 6'. Seriously, I think Penn State was a great football team, but that was by far the worst strength versus weakness matchup among all of the bowl games.

I don't see a big difference in his play compared to earlier in the season. His arm strength and fluidity had nothing to do with the mismatches at WR/CB.

[gibsonguy81]

What exactly is everyone's problem with McShay and Kiper, by the way? Is everyone just jealous that he gets paid to do what we all like to do for free?

[cutty]

Kurt Warner didn't make it in the league until he was older. I don't question Bradford based on overall skills. I just question if he can be a leader of a bad team and ignore criticism. He succeeds at OU with great support, and Warner only succeeds when he has great support. Warner looked mediocre to poor as a Giant, but great when he has Fitzgerald, Bolden, Holt, or Bruce catching passes. It's a solid comparison, but we must remember Warner succeeded after several years of maturing out of the spotlight, and had an awesome supporting cast.

I'm just comparing the two as passers, nothing more

[gibsonguy81]

He looked elite versus Penn State's defense mostly because Penn State's defensive backs are horribly undersized and Sanchez's receivers were all over 6'. Seriously, I think Penn State was a great football team, but that was by far the worst strength versus weakness matchup among all of the bowl games.

You are right on the matchup. What I like about Sanchez, and I am biased as a USC fan, is he is mobile but does not rely on that as a crutch like Vince Young or Pat White. He's got a lot less offensive support than Bradford has at OU and I believe a stronger arm. He and Stafford could stand to use some polish, but I think he and Stafford have more pure potential than Bradford.

[Matt McGuire]

I am jealous of McShay because he has a ****ty track record. His may 2009 mock was ****. He had Fili Moala #1, Michael Johnson #2, Al Woods #4, Sen'Derrick Marks #5, and Tim Tebow #7. He can't evaluate talent for **** by himself.

And also he can't evaluate needs. He said several times Baltimore was going to take Ryan Clady at 8 last year when they had Jared Gaither. The list goes on and on on how off he is on needs.

He updated his mock at midnight the day before the draft so he would get the Rams pick right after Michael smith reported on Chris Long.

He is simply a joke and would be nowhere if it wasn't for his scouting connections.

[gibsonguy81]

Cutty, I wasn't undercutting the comparison. I think it was apt. I'm just saying why I question Bradford as the top pick.

[cutty]

I am jealous of McShay because he has a ****ty track record. His may 2009 mock was ****. He had Fili Moala #1, Michael Johnson #2, Al Woods #4, Sen'Derrick Marks #5, and Tim Tebow #7. He can't evaluate talent for **** by himself.

And also he can't evaluate needs. He said several times Baltimore was going to take Ryan Clady at 8 last year when they had Jared Gaither. The list goes on and on on how off he is on needs.

He updated his mock at midnight the day before the draft so he would get the Rams pick right after Michael smith reported on Chris Long.

He is simply a joke and would be nowhere if it wasn't for his scouting connections.

Yeah I pretty much agree with everything you just said, he's clueless

[cutty]

Cutty, I wasn't undercutting the comparison. I think it was apt. I'm just saying why I question Bradford as the top pick.

If only we could put Stafford on Oklahoma and Bradford on Georgia for a saturday. I think a lot of questions would be answered with both guys

[Matt McGuire]

If only we could put Stafford on Oklahoma and Bradford on Georgia for a saturday. I think a lot of questions would be answered with both guys

Completely agree. You put Stafford in the no huddle with Juaquin Iglesias and Jermaine Gresham with Trent williams, Duke robinson, and Phil Loadholt on the OL and you see a completely different player going up against exposed Big XII defenses (as seen in these bowl games).

[gibsonguy81]

People need to get a grip on this thing. He said on that mock that it was way too early and they only made it because people were asking the site to post one. He didn't have spring training or any of the season to alter his projections. Last year, he was closer to the right draft than lots of guys on here and made several picks that were called stupid on here only to be correct. I changed my espn draft challenge the night before when Smith reported too. Is there a point in having a mock draft up for people to read that is already wrong? Why not re-project when you know something has changed? Gaither was not sure thing at the time either.

[gibsonguy81]

I agree the Big 12 is overrated, as I argued against my OU classmates for years.

[dr1441]

It isnt like Stafford didnt have weapons as well to use though. I mean in all fairness he had one of the best RB's in the nation taking pressure off of him. A top 5 recruit in A.J. Green, and another good WR is Massiquia.

I mean it isnt like he was playing for Army or something here. He did have weapons around him as well, but I also agree Stafford has more of a ceiling but I think after the BCS Championship game Bradford will become a hot commodity.

[cutty]

People need to get a grip on this thing. He said on that mock that it was way too early and they only made it because people were asking the site to post one. He didn't have spring training or any of the season to alter his projections. Last year, he was closer to the right draft than lots of guys on here and made several picks that were called stupid on here only to be correct. I changed my espn draft challenge the night before when Smith reported too. Is there a point in having a mock draft up for people to read that is already wrong? Why not re-project when you know something has changed? Gaither was not sure thing at the time either.

I think he is more of a product of what people tell him than what he actually sees for himself

[cutty]

It isnt like Stafford didnt have weapons as well to use though. I mean in all fairness he had one of the best RB's in the nation taking pressure off of him. A top 5 recruit in A.J. Green, and another good WR is Massiquia.

I mean it isnt like he was playing for Army or something here. He did have weapons around him as well, but I also agree Stafford has more of a ceiling but I think after the BCS Championship game Bradford will become a hot commodity.

The problem with that offense is the line, they were horrible at pass protection. There's no comparison to Oklahoma

[MANimal]

He had Fili Moala #1, .

You've gotta be shytting me. I remember when he was supposed to be a 1st rounder, but #1 overall?

[gibsonguy81]

dr1441, Stafford's offensive line was wracked with injuries. His WR's have some potential, but did not make many plays for the guy. I agree Moreno is a stud and Georgia is talented, but this year was a bad luck year for that O-line. Bradford has had the opposite problem with a great O-line and tons of time to find his talented guys.

Cutty- I think his connections do help. If we were able to talk to NFL scouts and get the inside track on what each team is thinking then we'd be able to make better guesses too. I agree someone's mock is influenced by how much they know about teams' interests and who they want and less on talent evaluating. However, all of us amateur draft guys rely even more on what we read and hear. We don't have the resources that he does to see every game of every player. I just don't like hating on a guy because we assume he is a hack. I know I'd love to have his job.

[Matt McGuire]

People need to get a grip on this thing. He said on that mock that it was way too early and they only made it because people were asking the site to post one. He didn't have spring training or any of the season to alter his projections. Last year, he was closer to the right draft than lots of guys on here and made several picks that were called stupid on here only to be correct. I changed my espn draft challenge the night before when Smith reported too. Is there a point in having a mock draft up for people to read that is already wrong? Why not re-project when you know something has changed? Gaither was not sure thing at the time either.

Are you McFraud's mom or wife?

He said it was way too early? You know what my top 5 was in the preseason: Oher, Selvie, Crabtree, Monroe, and Malcolm Jenkins.

He can't evaluate talent by himself, period. Gaither wasn't a sure thing? So, the Ravens loved him and weren't going to go offensive line in round 1. Everyone with half a brain knew they had to go CB or QB in the first.

Closer to the Draft? Here is his final mock. He said this was his final mock, but then updated it the night before the Draft. He is a ****ing fraud. YOu can only have one final mock. Devin Thomas to the Bills was a typical amateur pick. Chris Long to the Chiefs made zero sense. Chris Williams ahead of Clady?

We already know who the No. 1 overall pick is, but what happens from there? We're going to tell you.

Here is a look at Scouts Inc.'s final mock draft, which covers all seven rounds of the draft and will be updated as news warrants. Later-round picks are based on the best available players at positions of need.

1. Miami Dolphins -- Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Record: 1-15 | Needs: OT, CB, WR, QB, G
The Dolphins haven't had a true franchise left tackle since Richmond Webb in the 1990s, making this the right pick for them.

2. St. Louis Rams -- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Record: 3-13 | Needs: DE, DT, WR, C, OLB, OT
The Rams are looking to trade out of this pick but the only realistic option might be Atlanta, which is interested in taking Dorsey. While the St. Louis personnel department favors DE Chris Long at this pick, head coach Scott Linehan prefers Dorsey and is expected to get him.

3. Atlanta Falcons -- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Record: 4-12 | Needs: QB, OT, CB, DT, TE
Dorsey is priority No. 1, but if the Falcons can't land him here or with a trade-up, then Ryan will be the pick. Atlanta believes he is a franchise quarterback but would rather get the package of Dorsey and Louisville QB Brian Brohm through a trade.

4. Oakland Raiders -- Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Record: 4-12 | Needs: DE/DT, OT/G, SLB, WR, RB
Word out of Oakland is owner Al Davis will pass on Hall of Famer Howie Long's son, Chris, and go with the explosive McFadden.

5. Kansas City Chiefs -- Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Record: 4-12 | Needs: OT, CB, DT, G, C, WR, QB
The Jared Allen trade makes defensive end a far greater need, and this is the dream scenario for the Chiefs, who would be able to pick up this year's top defensive end prospect.

6. New York Jets -- Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State
Record: 4-12 | Needs: DE, WR, CB, FS, ILB, RB
McFadden is their pick if he slides to them, but Gholston isn't a bad consolation prize for a team that runs a base 3-4 defense and needs another edge rusher at outside linebacker.

7. N.E. Patriots (from 5-11 S.F.) -- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
Record: 16-0 | Needs: ILB, OLB, CB, ROT, TE
We still think the Patriots will trade out of this pick, whether it's up to get Chris Long or down to get better value. If stuck at No. 7, the intelligent and versatile Rivers makes the most sense.

8. Baltimore Ravens -- Branden Albert, OT/G, Virginia
Record: 5-11 | Needs: QB, CB, LOT, OLB/DE, ILB
If Ryan isn't on the board and the Ravens don't trade out of this slot, they will take the best available player. We don't make trades in this mock, but we have to acknowledge that either Cincinnati or New Orleans likely will trade up to get DT Sedrick Ellis. If Ellis is there and Ryan is off the board, Ellis would be the pick. If Ellis and Ryan are both gone as expected, then Albert makes sense.

9. Cincinnati Bengals -- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Record: 7-9 | Needs: NT, OT, DE, LB, WR, C
It's unlikely that Cincinnati will stay here and get this lucky. Either the Bengals or Saints will be aggressive to land the second best defensive tackle available. If the Saints leapfrog the Bengals and take Ellis, Rivers would be Cincinnati's pick if he slides. If Rivers isn't there, the best available offensive tackle (Albert or Ryan Clady) would be the next option.

10. New Orleans Saints -- Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Record: 6-9 | Needs: CB, DT, LB, TE, ROT, S
The Saints' options are as follows: First, move up to land Dorsey (likely too big a jump to make from pick No. 10); second, trade up to get Ellis; third, stay here and hope Rivers is available; fourth, if the first three options are unavailable, then try to trade back; fifth, if all else fails, take the best corner on the board (Jenkins or Leodis McKelvin).

11. Buffalo Bills -- Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
Record: 7-9 | Needs: WR, TE, CB, DE, FS
Taking Thomas here is a substantial reach, but we hear the Bills have targeted him, and their most pressing need is at receiver.

12. Denver Broncos -- Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Record: 7-9 | Needs: OT, WR, DT, MLB, S
Denver supposedly prefers Williams over Ryan Clady because Williams is more mobile and polished. We also should let you know that there are some rumblings that the Broncos might take RB Jonathan Stewart here.

13. Carolina Panthers -- Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Record: 7-9 | Needs: ROT, FS, DE, RB, TE
Clady and Jeff Otah are the safest picks here, but Harvey is a good value, and the retirement of Mike Rucker makes defense a greater need. The Panthers also could take RBs Stewart or Rashard Mendenhall here.

14. Chicago Bears -- Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Record: 7-9 | Needs: OT, QB, RB, WR, G, S
One of Chicago's greatest needs is at offensive tackle, and Clady is the better overall prospect compared to Otah.

15. Detroit Lions -- Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Record: 7-9 | Needs: RB, DE, OT, LB, DT
Though Detroit would prefer Harvey if he slips to them, the Lions would do well to land Mendenhall here.

[gibsonguy81]

Like I said, I'm not his wife, mom, or friend. I just think it's not cool to absolutely trash a guy who you don't really know. We don't know what his process of evaluating is. Also, I'm not bothered by him changing his draft when he knows something is going to change. Furthermore, lots of guys had the first round going similar to that right there. We can't always foresee draft day trades and guys falling, like Brady Quinn. Your top five that far back is fine, but he also got quite a few of the guys we are projecting in the first round now in his. I count 19 out of 32 guys who are going to be in the first. He missed at the top, that I'll agree with. However, he was also right in evalueatin Andre Smith as the first tackle taken, and he seems to be right in leaving Selvie off his first round. I suspect this is one of 5 or 6 disagreements that I'm going to lose based on popular opinion by you guys, but I just think he is getting too much flak for his mess ups and too little credit for what he does right. That's all.

[cutty]

Speaking of Selvie, what's his deal? I haven't seen him play once this year, but I hear he had a down season. Any news on if he'd declaring, and if so, where do you guys project him to go?

[gibsonguy81]

I haven't heard him declare. He didn't make an impact against Pitt or West Virginia though. I think if he does declare, then he goes late first or early second. Probably the next end after Greg Hardy.

[BroncosCon]

I have no problem trashing a guy that is getting paid a ton to do it for a living and not just some dude on a forum. McGay sucks.

[gibsonguy81]

But what is the criteria for not sucking if this is what you are paid to do? No one will get the whole draft right, and anyone who gets the first twenty picks right is VERY lucky. I'm just saying that he and his scouts are part of who gives us the info we have to make our mocks. We also put in our own opinions and what we've seen, but McShay has been no more off than the guys at Yahoo Sports, Fox Sports, or NFL.com.

[BroncosCon]

But what is the criteria for not sucking if this is what you are paid to do? No one will get the whole draft right, and anyone who gets the first twenty picks right is VERY lucky. I'm just saying that he and his scouts are part of who gives us the info we have to make our mocks. We also put in our own opinions and what we've seen, but McShay has been no more off than the guys at Yahoo Sports, Fox Sports, or NFL.com.

I agree, but he gets WAY more pub then all of them combined because he works for scout's inc/ESPN.

[MANimal]

Speaking of Selvie, what's his deal? I haven't seen him play once this year, but I hear he had a down season. Any news on if he'd declaring, and if so, where do you guys project him to go?

He's staying in school. I wouldn't say he had a down year, it's more that teams are more aware of him now so he faces constant double-teams.

[ZN0rseman]

He looked elite versus Penn State's defense mostly because Penn State's defensive backs are horribly undersized and Sanchez's receivers were all over 6'. Seriously, I think Penn State was a great football team, but that was by far the worst strength versus weakness matchup among all of the bowl games.

Also, Harrington struggled in the pros because he always played for teams with zero offensive line and no good receivers to throw the ball to.


I don't see a big difference in his play compared to earlier in the season. His arm strength and fluidity had nothing to do with the mismatches at WR/CB.


You are right on the matchup. What I like about Sanchez, and I am biased as a USC fan, is he is mobile but does not rely on that as a crutch like Vince Young or Pat White. He's got a lot less offensive support than Bradford has at OU and I believe a stronger arm. He and Stafford could stand to use some polish, but I think he and Stafford have more pure potential than Bradford.


I'm certainly not saying his arm strength and fludity were impacted by Penn States small DB's, I'm just saying that it was a horrible matchup for Penn State because the super tall recievers for USC were outclassing the tiny DB's for PSU. Therefore it wasn't hard for Sanchez to look good in that game, because every receiver he had was always open, on every single play.

Match him up against another Big 10 team with normal sized DB's, it's a whole different ball game. Also, I think far too many people put far too much weight on the last game a player plays in before going to the pros. Either way, I don't think anybody should be looking at what he did against Penn State as a method of evaluating what the guy will do in the NFL... and if they do, they are not looking at the whole picture.

$0.02,

--Z

[gibsonguy81]

I'm certainly not saying his arm strength and fludity were impacted by Penn States small DB's, I'm just saying that it was a horrible matchup for Penn State because the super tall recievers for USC were outclassing the tiny DB's for PSU. Therefore it wasn't hard for Sanchez to look good in that game, because every receiver he had was always open, on every single play.

Match him up against another Big 10 team with normal sized DB's, it's a whole different ball game. Also, I think far too many people put far too much weight on the last game a player plays in before going to the pros. Either way, I don't think anybody should be looking at what he did against Penn State as a method of evaluating what the guy will do in the NFL... and if they do, they are not looking at the whole picture.

$0.02,

--Z

I agree about the last game getting too much publicity. It's almost the equivalent of being a workout warrior. However, Sanchez did pretty well against the top corner in this draft, Malcolm Jenkins. He's good and will probably go higher than he would've before the Rose Bowl if he does come out.