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  • Betting Strategy

    I've been looking at this betting strategy for about an hour now and I'm curious whether everyone seems it as a good idea.

    The strategy involves:

    Betting Heath Miller Under 49.5 Receiving Yards at -137

    Betting Heath Miller Over 37.5 Receiving yards at -110.

    If I bet 110 on each, I lose 30 when its under 37.5 and I lose 10 when it's over 49.5 but I win 150 if it's in between both digits.

    Do people feel this is a worthwhile bet?

  • #2
    Originally posted by mdb17 View Post
    I've been looking at this betting strategy for about an hour now and I'm curious whether everyone seems it as a good idea.

    The strategy involves:

    Betting Heath Miller Under 49.5 Receiving Yards at -137

    Betting Heath Miller Over 37.5 Receiving yards at -110.

    If I bet 110 on each, I lose 30 when its under 37.5 and I lose 10 when it's over 49.5 but I win 150 if it's in between both digits.

    Do people feel this is a worthwhile bet?
    are you going to bet with 2 sites? most sites wont let you do this..... BTW the over for the game is a lock and i really like GB -2.5

    Comment


    • #3
      This basically equates to getting close to +1000 on him landing in the sweet zone, which isn't a horrible value, but its still a somewhat obscure bet.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by zachmorris2 View Post
        are you going to bet with 2 sites? most sites wont let you do this..... BTW the over for the game is a lock and i really like GB -2.5
        Yeah it is with two different sites. I actually like the under and Steelers ML.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by ckane138 View Post
          This basically equates to getting close to +1000 on him landing in the sweet zone, which isn't a horrible value, but its still a somewhat obscure bet.
          Sorry the profit is 180 not 150. It's definitely obscure. It's about saying that both sites over/under valued the market and that there should be a way of making money by putting it into an equilibrium.

          In the 12 games that Heath Miller played with Big Ben this season, each segment (0-37.5, 37.5-49.5 and 49.5+) was even with 4 instances.

          I was thinking that if this strategy pays off 1 in every 6 times I break even provided that when I lose it's under 37.5 yards. Anything more often and I make a profit.

          I probably didn't write it every well the first time considering it was 3.30am here.

          I think this post has made me feel very good about it.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by mdb17 View Post
            Yeah it is with two different sites. I actually like the under and Steelers ML.
            its a nightmare macthup for the steelers. The defenses being copycates of each other lends itself to a shootout. Just like when 2 option offenses play each other, the defenses generally have success. Familiarity

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            • #7
              Originally posted by zachmorris2 View Post
              its a nightmare macthup for the steelers. The defenses being copycates of each other lends itself to a shootout. Just like when 2 option offenses play each other, the defenses generally have success. Familiarity
              Since I said that I'm leaning towards Green Bay. I think preparation time will become a factor. Teams that regularly have time to prepare for their opponents usually means they do not concede as many points because they can gameplan for their opponent's best weapons and create confusing looks.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by mdb17 View Post
                Since I said that I'm leaning towards Green Bay. I think preparation time will become a factor. Teams that regularly have time to prepare for their opponents usually means they do not concede as many points because they can gameplan for their opponent's best weapons and create confusing looks.
                you are right but its a moot point in this case because the defenses are the same. advantage offenses. The steelers too weaknesses are thier secondary and offensive line. GB has the best wr's and a brutal front 7. GB has the cbs to go with the pitt wr's and the safety nick collins is a pro bowler

                34-27 GB

                Comment


                • #9
                  Ok I also made 12 prop bets to go along with my obscure bet.

                  Hines Ward under 4 receptions -138 (1 unit)

                  James Jones over 2.5 receptions -120 (1 unit)

                  Greg Jennings under 5.5 receptions -120 (0.5 units)

                  Mike Wallace to be MVP +1800 (0.3units)

                  Packers to kickoff first -100 (0.5 units)

                  Harrison to have more sacks than Matthews +138 (1 unit)

                  Steelers to win by 1-6 points +350 (1 unit)

                  Packers to win by 1-6 points +300 (1 unit)

                  Longest Successful Field Goal under 44.5 yards -120 (1 unit)

                  Missed Field Goal? Yes +275 (1 unit)

                  Total sacks over 5 -138 (0.5 units)

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                  • #10
                    You're essentially paying $20 (average), for a shot at $180 if I'm not mistaken?

                    You're getting 9/1 odds of him landing in between 38-49, sounds decent enough I'd say.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by mdb17 View Post
                      I've been looking at this betting strategy for about an hour now and I'm curious whether everyone seems it as a good idea.

                      The strategy involves:

                      Betting Heath Miller Under 49.5 Receiving Yards at -137

                      Betting Heath Miller Over 37.5 Receiving yards at -110.

                      If I bet 110 on each, I lose 30 when its under 37.5 and I lose 10 when it's over 49.5 but I win 150 if it's in between both digits.

                      Do people feel this is a worthwhile bet?
                      I read last nite the sharps jumped that very bet when it opned and moved it, hope you got in

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by zachmorris2 View Post
                        I read last nite the sharps jumped that very bet when it opned and moved it, hope you got in
                        Yep I got it the way I put it in the OP. The profit is wrong in the OP it would be 180 but everything else in it is true.

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