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NCAA Bowl Games

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  • NCAA Bowl Games

    +4.09 - Navy* -21.5 vs Army
    +1.69 - Arizona* -10 vs New Mexico
    +0.10 - BYU* +2.5 vs Utah
    +0.69 - Ohio +8 vs Appalachian St
    +1.51 - San Jose St -3 vs Georgia State
    +0.13 - Arkansas St +2 vs La. Tech
    +5.66 - S.Florida +3 vs W.Kentucky
    +0.41 - Utah St -6.5 vs Akron
    +0.03 - Temple -1.5 vs Toledo
    +2.74 - Boise St -7.5 vs N.Illinois
    +0.89 - Georgia Southern +7 vs Bowling Green
    +0.24 - W.Michigan -3 vs Middle Tennessee
    +2.04 - San Diego St +1.5 vs Cincinnati
    +1.59 - UCONN +4.5 vs Marshall
    +3.09 - Miami +3 vs Washington St
    +3.64 - Washington -8.5 vs S.Mississippi
    +5.69 - Duke +2 vs Indiana
    +1.10 - Virginia Tech -13.5 vs Tulsa
    +0.70 - Nebraska +6.5 vs UCLA
    +1.63 - Pittsburgh +3.5 vs Navy
    +4.02 - C.Michigan +5.5 vs Minnesota
    +1.92 - California -7 vs Air Force
    +0.41 - N.Carolina +3 vs Baylor
    +0.81 - Colorado St -3.5 vs Nevada
    +2.64 - Texas Tech +7 vs LSU
    +5.10 - Memphis +2.5 vs Auburn
    +1.47 - NC State +5.5 vs Mississippi St
    +0.05 - Texas A&M -2.5 vs Louisville
    +0.71 - USC -3 vs Wisconsin
    +2.41 - Florida St -7 vs Houston
    +1.06 - Alabama -9.5 vs Michigan St
    +2.36 - Oklahoma -4 vs Clemson
    +1.20 - Tennessee -8 vs Northwestern
    +5.24 - Florida +4.5 vs Michigan
    +4.23 - Notre Dame +6.5 vs Ohio State
    +0.89 - Iowa +6.5 vs Stanford
    +1.22 - Oklahoma St +7 vs Mississippi
    +1.50 - Georgia -6.5 vs Penn State
    +2.80 - Kansas St +11 vs Arkansas
    +8.78 - TCU pk vs Oregon
    +6.32 - W.Virginia +1 vs Arizona St

    My Conference Records

    16-6 B1G 10
    9-2 AAC
    4-1 Independents
    6-4 MAC
    4-3 BIG 12
    6-5 MWC
    1-3 Sun Belt
    1-4 CUSA
    6-9 ACC
    5-10 SEC
    6-11 PAC 12


  • #2
    so what is this telling me? According to your computer stats Navy should win by 4.09?


    • #3
      No, that is the projected value according to my Yards Per Point Method + SOS factored in. It's based on numbers alone and doesn't factor in recent injuries or situation spots, rivals, trends etc.. It's just one tool I use to help single out games and predict lines, sometimes I even go against it. No Model is a perfect solution but you can find certain edges within them. You can check out some of my past threads and see how performed on itself. After I do this, I ll go through and look at trends for certain situations, check for line movement, and look at some other analytical stats. I'll post some more of that stuff before Saturday's games.


      • #4
        cool, very good, I understand what you are saying. I put a lot on yds per pt in the NFL but, I do not think u can weigh it as much in collage or any stats considering all the types of teams they play against, OH BOY that is SOS huh! Thats a lot of work. In the NFL I do all the same things but most likely not as thuruogh as you. GL, thanks I will be following, if I run into any tidbits I will throw them at you.


        • #5
          In recent results NCAA has done just as just good if not better than NFL, going on this model alone. In college it is comparable because the teams plays more games within their conference, so teams play a lot of the same teams. It also helps to find huge variations is projected value and the line, sometimes I will fade the highest projected value picks, just because they are so different from the books line and that usually means they know something we don't. Anything over an 8 in value, I question. The books seem to have done a pretty good job at making the lines for the bowl games, the average of the values are lower than a normal week. Eventually I want to come up with a Yards Per Play model, I think that would be more a little more accurate, because certain things like defensive and special teams scores can misconstrue the Yards per Point model.


          • #6
            because certain things like defensive and special teams scores can misconstrue the Yards per Point model. About the Scoreability Index. Think of Scoreability as a way to quantify how well teams play in “situational football.” The Scoreability Index measures the team-wide ability to each team to turn yards into points. It is not merely an offensive indicator! It takes into account a variety of factors, including proficiency of defense and special teams, field position, red zone offense, and turnover differential, and then spits it all out in an easy-to-understand number. Teams that rank highly in Scoreability are typically smart, efficient, well-coached teams.

            You have to include those scores, that is who the team is!


            • #7
              Sounds interesting, do you have any sites that calculates this for you?


              • #8
                Saturday 12/19

                --> Arizona -7? -115
                --> BYU +115
                --> Georgia State +110
                --> Ohio/App.State Under 55
                --> Arkansas State +105

                Regular Season = 64-58 for +1.58 Units

                Arizona vs New Mexico

                Solomon should play and thier offense should be too much for New Mexico.
                New Mexico will struggle if they have to play from behind.
                Arizona is better on 3rd downs and have an advantage in thier FG kicker.
                New Mexico is 2-10 SU L12 vs the PAC 12, but both wins were vs Arizona.
                The MWC isn't used to the fast paced style of Offense. The last PAC12 team, New Mexico faced, they lost 72-0 to Oregon.
                If Arizona can limit turnovers and protect Solomon, it should be a blow out.
                Arizona has had plenty of time to prepare for the option.
                Motivation could be key and they are playing in New Mexico.
                In the end, New Mexico is just too one dimensional for me.
                I have a feeling Arizona will blow them out or lose. My numbers have Arizona by 11, but that is all on a big SOS advantage for Arizona. The net numbers have this close to even.
                The ATS volume is close, but the books would lose more if New Mexico won SU.


                BYU vs Utah

                I like the matchup with BYU's big WR's vs Utah's smaller DB's. Utah will also be without their best offensive weapon again.
                I also think BYU will be playing extra hard for thier coaches, not just Mendanhall.
                Utah was ranked in the top 5 earlier in the season and now has to play in one of the first bowl games.
                They might be a little disappointed, but they are playing an old rival, so motivation shouldn't be much of a factor.
                On the field, I just think BYU is better on Offense and thier defense isn't that far from Utah's.
                It will probally be the biggest bet bowl game of the day. The public is on Utah, but the line hasn't really moved.
                I have BYU -1.5 without SOS factored in and +2.4 with SOS factored.
                Teams that have won SU have covered 90% of the time in the last 5 years. 158-18 ATS


                Ohio vs Appalachian St

                This one is a tough call for me. If it wasn't a bowl game, I wouldn't bet it.
                Appalachian St runs the ball 67% of the time, but QB Lamb did have 29 TD passes.
                Ohio will also be trying to run the ball but should have a tough time.
                Appalachian St shut down the rushing attack of Georgia Southern, so they shouldn't have any problem containing the dual threat QB, Vick.
                This is the first bowl game for Appalachian St, and their coach said they plan on having fun with it.
                I can't make up my mind on a side, my numbers have Ohio +7.5 with a total of 52.87.
                I haven't been good in football this year at Totals, but I think Under is the best bet.


                Georgia St vs San Jose St

                San Jose St will have to travel 3000 miles.
                Georgia St is a passing team and San Jose like to run the ball.
                Georgia St has proven they can win against run heavy teams.
                There is no passing attack in the MWC like Georgia St has.
                The MWC is just 2-9 ATS vs the Sub Belt since 2013.
                Georgia St coach said his players aren't just happy about reaching a bowl game, they want to win.
                San Jose has just 5 wins on the season and one was vs New Hapmpshire.
                I like passing teams against MWC, so I'm going with Georgia St and against my numbers that have San Jose by 4.5


                Arkansas St vs La. Tech

                This is another tough call for me. I'm tempted to take La Tech 1st Half and Arkansas St 2nd.
                I've seen Arkansas St have some slow starts and big 2nd halves this year.
                I think what it comes down to for me is that in an expected high scoring game, I want to take the team that I think is less likely to turn the ball over, Arkansas St.
                There is no value on the line, I have Arkansas St .5 favorites without SOS and +1.87 with SOS factored.



                • #9
                  ARI=RB Nick Wilson out?? is that bad??
                  BYU nice RL movement on them and over also, I am getting 3


                  • #10
                    --> South Florida +3


                    • #11
                      Fade Material Lately

                      --> Boise St -7
                      --> Bowling Green -5


                      The value board in the 1st thread is 2-6 for the line at the time it was done. It went 6-2 after line movements shifted values.


                      • #12
                        Thursday 12/24

                        --> San Diego State -1.5
                        --> Cincinnati/SDST Over 56.5


                        • #13
                          --> uconn +5


                          • #14
                            --> Miami +1.5
                            --> Washington -8
                            --> Indiana -2.5

                            --> Tulsa +14
                            --> Over 61.5

                            --> UCLA -5
                            --> Under 62


                            • #15
                              --> Pittsburgh +3
                              --> Over 52.5

                              --> C.Michigan +6