Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

NCAA Basketball 2016

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    kefarmer22

    Any picks tonight?

    Comment


    • #32
      Sorry, been busy for the last week.

      Comment


      • #33
        MONDAY 1/25


        ----------------------------------

        Model Adjusted

        +10.5 - Oakland +3.5 at Milwaukee -------Under 162.5 (155)
        +5.0 - Davidson +6 at Richmond -------Under 171.5 (159)
        +4.5 - Ohio State -8.5 vs Penn State -------Over 137 (142)
        +4.5 - Iowa State -1.5 vs Kansas -------Under 161 (151)
        +3.5 - Furman -6.5 at VMI -------Over 135 (139)
        +2.5 - Appalachian St -3.5 vs Georgia Southern-----Under 147.5 (139)
        +2.5 - Duke +3.5 at Miami -------Under 153 (140)
        +1.5 - Green Bay -5.5 vs Detroit -------Under 181 (165)
        +0.5 - Manhattan +4.5 at Saint Peter's -------Over 131 (136)
        +0.5 - Southern -7.5 vs Alabama A&M -------Under 140 (137)

        ----------------------------------

        RAW

        +14.5 - Oakland +3.5 at Milwaukee
        +9.0 - Davidson +6 at Richmond
        +6.5 - Furman -6.5 at VMI
        +5.5 - Duke +3.5 at Miami
        +4.5 - Manhattan +4.5 at Saint Peter's
        +4.5 - Alabama A&M +7.5 at Southern
        +2.5 - Detroit +5.5 at Green Bay
        +1.5 - Iowa State -1.5 vs Kansas
        +0.5 - Penn State +8.5 at Ohio State
        +0.5 - Georgia Southern +3.5 at Appalachian St

        ----------------------------------

        KenPom

        +3.5 - Appalachian St -3.5 vs Georgia Southern-------Under 147.5 (147)
        +3.0 - Richmond -6 vs Davidson -------Over 171.5 (181)
        +2.5 - Green Bay -5.5 vs Detroit -------Over 181 (190)
        +2.5 - Milwaukee -3.5 vs Oakland -------Over 162.5 (166)
        +2.5 - Miami -3.5 vs Duke -------Over 153 (156)
        +2.5 - Saint Peter's -4.5 vs Manhattan -------Under 131 (127)
        +1.5 - Iowa State -1.5 vs Kansas -------Over 161 (167)
        +1.5 - VMI +6.5 vs Furman -------Under 135 (133)
        +0.5 - Alabama A&M +7.5 at Southern -------Over 140 (141)
        +0.5 - Penn State +8.5 at Ohio State -------Under 137 (134)

        -----------------------------------

        SAME

        +4.5 - Iowa State -1.5 vs Kansas -------Under 161 (151)

        Comment


        • #34
          MONDAY 1/25

          --> Miami -3.5
          ________________________

          NCAAB = 17-16 for -0.40 Units

          Comment


          • #35
            Monday's Results

            My model continues to crush it.

            Official Plays = 1-0

            Model Adjusted

            7-2 Overall
            5-0 Top 5
            5-4 O/U

            RAW

            5-4 Overall
            3-2 Top 5

            KenPom

            3-6 Overall
            2-3 Top 5
            3-6 O/U

            SAME

            1-0 Overall

            Comment


            • #36
              TUESDAY 1/26


              Model Adjusted

              +12.5 - Wake Forest +6.5 vs Virginia Under 142 (141)
              +10.5 - Nevada +3.5 vs San Diego St Over 129.5 (134)
              +9.0 - Tennessee +4 at Alabama Over 145 (149)
              +8.5 - Indiana -1.5 at Wisconsin Under 141 (137)
              +7.5 - Duquesne -9.5 vs La Salle Under 142.5 (142)
              +5.0 - Florida +5 at Vanderbilt Over 138 (146)
              +5.0 - N.Illinois +6 at Akron Over 136 (142)
              +3.0 - C.Michigan -4 at Miami (Oh) Over 139 (140)
              +3.0 - Providence PK vs Xavier Under 147 (144)
              +2.5 - C.Florida +3.5 vs Memphis Under 147.5 (144)
              +2.5 - Creighton +3.5 at Georgetown Under 149 (142)
              +2.5 - LSU -6.5 vs Georgia Under 144.5 (143)
              +2.5 - Buffalo -3.5 vs Ball St Over 139 (141)
              +2.5 - Florida St -9.5 at Boston College Over 137.5 (141)
              +2.5 - W.Virginia -10.5 vs Kansas St No Value (141)
              +2.0 - S.Alabama +5 at Troy Under 151.5 (147)
              +2.0 - E.Michigan +5 at Kent Under 153.5 (151)
              +2.0 - Fresno St -7 vs Wyoming Under 134.5 (134)
              +2.0 - Illinois St -10 vs Drake Under 137.5 (135)
              +2.0 - TCU +11 at Texas Over 131 (135)
              +2.0 - Mississippi St +8 at S.Carolina Under 148 (145)
              +1.5 - Siena -7.5 at Niagara Over 132.5 (134)
              +1.5 - Bowling Green +4.5 at W.Michigan Over 143.5 (145)
              +1.0 - Ohio +7 at Toledo Under 159.5 (146)
              +1.0 - Oklahoma -14 vs Texas Tech Under 152 (149)

              ---------------------------------

              RAW

              +13.0 - Tennessee +4 at Alabama
              +11.5 - Indiana -1.5 at Wisconsin
              +10.0 - N.Illinois +6 at Akron
              +9.5 - Wake Forest +6.5 vs Virginia
              +9.0 - Florida +5 at Vanderbilt
              +8.0 - TCU +11 at Texas
              +7.5 - Nevada +3.5 vs San Diego St
              +7.0 - Mississippi St +8 at S.Carolina
              +6.0 - C.Michigan -4 at Miami (Oh)
              +6.0 - E.Michigan +5 at Kent
              +6.0 - S.Alabama +5 at Troy
              +5.5 - Florida St -9.5 at Boston College
              +5.5 - Creighton +3.5 at Georgetown
              +5.5 - Bowling Green +4.5 at W.Michigan
              +5.0 - Ohio +7 at Toledo
              +5.0 - Texas Tech +14 at Oklahoma
              +4.5 - Siena -7.5 at Niagara
              +3.5 - Kansas St +10.5 at W.Virginia
              +3.0 - Drake +10 at Illinois St
              +3.0 - Wyoming +7 at Fresno St
              +2.5 - Duquesne -9.5 vs La Salle
              +1.5 - Georgia +6.5 at LSU
              +0.5 - Ball St +3.5 at Buffalo
              +0.5 - Memphis -3.5 at C.Florida

              +0.0 - Xavier PK at Providence

              -----------------------------------

              KenPom

              +2.5 - Duquesne -9.5 vs La Salle -------Over 142.5 (146)
              +2.5 - Nevada +3.5 vs San Diego St-------Under 129.5 (127)
              +2.5 - C.Florida +3.5 vs Memphis -------Over 147.5 (149)
              +2.0 - E.Michigan +5 at Kent -------Over 153.5 (155)
              +2.0 - Drake +10 at Illinois St -------Over 137.5 (138)
              +2.0 - Florida +5 at Vanderbilt -------Under 138 (133)
              +2.0 - Troy -5 vs S.Alabama -------Under 151.5 (151)
              +2.0 - Miami (Oh) +4 vs C.Michigan -------Under 139 (138)
              +1.5 - Georgia +6.5 at LSU -------Under 144.5 (143)
              +1.5 - Creighton +3.5 at Georgetown -------Under 149 (148)
              +1.5 - Kansas St +10.5 at W.Virginia -------Under 141 (135)
              +1.5 - Virginia -6.5 at Wake Forest -------Under 142 (140)
              +1.5 - Siena -7.5 at Niagara -------Under 132.5 (131)
              +1.5 - Bowling Green +4.5 at W.Michigan -------Under 143.5 (143)
              +1.0 - Tennessee +4 at Alabama -------Under 145 (143)
              +1.0 - Texas -11 vs TCU -------Over 131 (132)
              +1.0 - Wyoming +7 at Fresno St -------Under 134.5 (134)
              +1.0 - Providence PK vs Xavier -------Under 147 (145)
              +1.0 - S.Carolina -8 vs Mississippi St-----Over 148 (149)
              +0.5 - Ball St +3.5 at Buffalo -------Under 139 (137)
              +0.5 - Boston College +9.5 vs Florida St -------Under 137.5 (135)
              +0.5 - Indiana -1.5 at Wisconsin -------Under 141 (138)

              +0.0 - N.Illinois +6 at Akron -------Under 136 (132)
              +0.0 - Ohio +7 at Toledo -------Under 159.5 (159)
              +0.0 - Texas Tech +14 at Oklahoma -------No Value (152)

              ------------------------------------

              SAME

              +10.5 - Nevada +3.5 vs San Diego St
              +9.0 - Tennessee +4 at Alabama
              +8.5 - Indiana -1.5 at Wisconsin
              +7.5 - Duquesne -9.5 vs La Salle
              +5.0 - Florida +5 at Vanderbilt
              +2.5 - Creighton +3.5 at Georgetown
              +2.0 - E.Michigan +5 at Kent
              +1.5 - Siena -7.5 at Niagara
              +1.5 - Bowling Green +4.5 at W.Michigan

              ---------------------------------------

              Comment


              • #37
                TUESDAY 1/26

                --> Bowling Green +4.5
                --> Tennessee +4
                --> Florida +5
                ____________________

                NCAAB = 18-16 for +0.60 Units

                Comment


                • #38
                  My thoughts on the rest of the games.


                  57% - Xavier PK at Providence
                  Haven't been able to pull trigger

                  46% - Kansas St +10.5 at W.Virginia
                  Haven't been able to pull trigger

                  21% - Georgia +6.5 at LSU
                  Possible Contrarian pick

                  27% - Mississippi St +8 at S.Carolina
                  Possible Contrarian pick

                  61% - N.Illinois +6 at Akron
                  Home Team been solid

                  35% - La Salle +9.5 at Duquesne
                  Don't like Line Movement

                  86% - San Diego St -3.5 at Nevada
                  Looks too easy

                  70% - Memphis -3.5 at C.Florida
                  Looks too easy

                  82% - Kent -5 vs E.Michigan
                  Looks too easy

                  94% - C.Michigan -4 at Miami (Oh)
                  Looks too easy

                  27% - Wake Forest +6.5 vs Virginia
                  No Confidence in Wake

                  68% - Indiana -1.5 at Wisconsin
                  Wisconsin hard to read

                  36% - Creighton +3.5 at Georgetown
                  SS Revenge for Georgetown

                  51% - Buffalo -3.5 vs Ball St
                  Buffalo hard to read

                  64% - Florida St -9.5 at Boston College
                  Line too high

                  52% - S.Alabama +5 at Troy
                  Both teams suck, toss up

                  74% - Fresno St -7 vs Wyoming
                  Line too high

                  75% - Illinois St -10 vs Drake
                  SS Revenge for Drake

                  25% - TCU +11 at Texas
                  SS Revenge for Texas

                  79% - Siena -7.5 at Niagara
                  SS Revenge for Niagara

                  39% - Ohio +7 at Toledo
                  Don't trust either team

                  62% - Oklahoma -14 vs Texas Tech
                  Line too high

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by fuqer View Post
                    TUESDAY 1/26

                    --> Bowling Green +4.5
                    --> Tennessee +4
                    --> Florida +5
                    ____________________

                    NCAAB = 18-16 for +0.60 Units
                    --> Kansas St +10.5

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Tuesday's Results

                      Like last season, I'm now tracking the Same Season Revenge games.
                      I have a dozen games done for tomorrow that I'll post soon.
                      Soon, I'm going to stop tracking RAW and KenPom for comparison. My model has easily proven to be more accurate.

                      Official Plays 2-2

                      Model Adjusted

                      16-9 Overall
                      3-2 Top 5
                      5-5 Top 10
                      9-15 O/U

                      RAW

                      13-11 Overall
                      2-3 Top 5
                      4-6 Top 10

                      KenPom

                      9-13 Overall
                      2-3 Top 5
                      5-5 Top 10
                      14-10 O/U

                      SAME

                      6-3 Overall

                      SS Revenge

                      1-3 Overall

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        WEDNESDAY 1/27

                        Model Adjusted

                        +11.0 - E.Kentucky PK vs Murray St ------Under 151 (144)
                        +6.5 - CS Fullerton +2.5 at UC Davis ------Under 136 (135)
                        +5.5 - California +5.5 at Utah ------Under 136.5 (136)
                        +2.5 - Oklahoma St +2.5 vs Baylor ------Over 141 (143)
                        +2.0 - Pittsburgh +3 at Clemson ------Over 136.5 (140)
                        +1.5 - Arkansas +3.5 vs Texas A&M ------Under 150 (145)
                        +1.5 - Auburn +4.5 at Mississippi ------Under 156 (149)
                        +1.5 - Georgia Tech +3.5 at NC State ------Over 143.5 (148)
                        +1.0 - UNLV -4 vs Boise St ------Under 146.5 (142)
                        +0.5 - Colorado -6.5 vs Stanford ------Over 116.5 (137)

                        +0.0 - Purdue -14 at Minnesota ------Under 141.5 (141)
                        +0.0 - Tulsa -1 at Houston ------Under 140.5 (132)

                        -------------------------------------

                        RAW

                        +9.5 - California +5.5 at Utah
                        +9.5 - CS Fullerton +2.5 at UC Davis
                        +8.0 - E.Kentucky PK vs Murray St
                        +5.5 - Georgia Tech +3.5 at NC State
                        +5.5 - Auburn +4.5 at Mississippi
                        +5.0 - Pittsburgh +3 at Clemson
                        +3.5 - Stanford +6.5 at Colorado
                        +3.0 - Minnesota +14 vs Purdue
                        +3.0 - Tulsa -1 at Houston
                        +2.0 - Boise State +4 at UNLV
                        +1.5 - Texas A&M -3.5 at Arkansas
                        +0.5 - Baylor -2.5 at Oklahoma St

                        ------------------------------------

                        KenPom


                        +3.5 - Mississippi -4.5 vs Auburn --------Over 156 (158)
                        +2.5 - California +5.5 at Utah --------Over 136.5 (137)
                        +2.0 - Houston +1 vs Tulsa --------Over 140.5 (143)
                        +1.5 - Oklahoma St +2.5 vs Baylor --------Under 141 (139)
                        +1.5 - CS Fullerton +2.5 at UC Davis --------Under 136 (135)
                        +1.0 - E.Kentucky PK vs Murray St --------No Value (151)
                        +1.0 - Minnesota +14 vs Purdue --------Under 141.5 (139)
                        +1.0 - Pittsburgh +3 at Clemson --------Over 136.5 (138)
                        +0.5 - Texas A&M -3.5 at Arkansas --------No Value (150)
                        +0.5 - NC State -3.5 vs Georgia Tech --------Under 143.5 (140)
                        +0.5 - Stanford +6.5 at Colorado --------Over 116.5 (134)
                        +0.0 - Boise State +4 at UNLV --------Under 146.5 (140)

                        ------------------------------------

                        SAME

                        +11.0 - E.Kentucky PK vs Murray St
                        +6.5 - CS Fullerton +2.5 at UC Davis
                        +5.5 - California +5.5 at Utah
                        +2.0 - Pittsburgh +3 at Clemson

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          WEDNESDAY 1/27

                          --> Pittsburgh +3 at Clemson
                          --> Arkansas +3.5 vs Texas A&M
                          --> Oklahoma St +4 vs Baylor

                          ____________________

                          NCAAB = 20-18 for +0.40 Units

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by fuqer View Post
                            WEDNESDAY 1/27

                            --> Pittsburgh +3 at Clemson
                            --> Arkansas +3.5 vs Texas A&M
                            --> Oklahoma St +4 vs Baylor

                            ____________________

                            NCAAB = 20-18 for +0.40 Units

                            --> CS Fullerton +2.5 at UC Davis

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              The total I have listed for the Colorado game is supposed to be 137.5. That changes the my model and KenPom from Over to Under.
                              I noticed the huge discrepancy last night but was too tired to double check. I did them early and there were limited books giving the number, I could of swore Bet Online had it at 116.5, but it was most likely an error on my part because I see the total for the game below was in that range.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                I didn't get as much done as I wanted to but I got occupied by something else last night.

                                ---------------------------
                                THURSDAY 1/28


                                Model Adjusted

                                +13.0 - Citadel -1 vs NC Greensboro ----------Under 178 (161)
                                +12.5 - Florida Atlantic +6.5 vs Old Dominion ----------Over 119.5 (133)
                                +10.0 - Marshall -3 vs Middle Tenn St----------Under 161.5 (160)
                                +9.0 - E.Tennessee St +3 at Wofford ----------Over 146 (147)
                                +4.5 - Notre Dame +3.5 at Syracuse ----------Under 142 (140)
                                +4.0 - Delaware +7 vs William & Mary----------Under 146 (144)
                                +3.0 - IPFW +3 at Oral Roberts ----------Under 163 (159)
                                +3.0 - Iowa +4 at Maryland ----------Under 146.5 (141)
                                +2.5 - Drexel +3.5 vs Towson ----------Over 123 (132)
                                +1.5 - Connecticut -2.5 vs Cincinnati ----------Under 130 (127)
                                +1.5 - Mount St Marys -6.5 vs Robert Morris ----------Under 129.5 (128)
                                +1.0 - Marist -5 vs Niagara ----------Over 136.5 (142)
                                +0.5 - Furman -6.5 vs W.Carolina ----------Over 137 (140)

                                +0.0 - NC Wilmington +5 at James Madison ----------Under 148 (143)
                                +0.0 - Charlotte +3 at Florida Intl ----------Over 150 (152)

                                ----------------------------

                                RAW

                                +12.0 - E.Tennessee St +3 at Wofford
                                +10.0 - Citadel -1 vs NC Greensboro
                                +9.5 - Florida Atlantic +6.5 vs Old Dominion
                                +7.5 - Notre Dame +3.5 at Syracuse
                                +7.0 - Iowa +4 at Maryland
                                +7.0 - Marshall -3 vs Middle Tenn St
                                +6.0 - IPFW +3 at Oral Roberts
                                +4.5 - W.Carolina +6.5 at Furman
                                +4.0 - NC Wilmington +5 at James Madison
                                +3.0 - Charlotte +3 at Florida Intl
                                +3.0 - Niagara +5 at Marist
                                +2.5 - Robert Morris +6.5 at Mount St Marys
                                +1.5 - Cincinnati +2.5 at Connecticut
                                +1.0 - Delaware +7 vs William & Mary
                                +0.5 - Towson -3.5 at Drexel

                                ----------------------------

                                KenPom


                                +3.0 - Citadel -1 vs NC Greensboro ----------Over 178 (182)
                                +3.0 - Iowa +4 at Maryland ----------Under 146.5 (145)
                                +2.5 - Florida Atlantic +6.5 vs Old Dominion ----------Under 119.5 (118)
                                +2.0 - E.Tennessee St +3 at Wofford ----------Under 146 (145)
                                +2.0 - Florida Intl -3 vs Charlotte ----------Under 150 (149)
                                +1.5 - Connecticut -2.5 vs Cincinnati ----------No Value (130)
                                +1.5 - Notre Dame +3.5 at Syracuse ----------No Value (142)
                                +1.5 - Drexel +3.5 vs Towson ----------No Value (123)
                                +1.0 - William & Mary -7 at Delaware ----------No Value (146)
                                +1.0 - James Madison -5 vs NC Wilmington ----------No Value (148)
                                +0.5 - Furman -6.5 vs W.Carolina ----------Under 137 (135)
                                +0.5 - Mount St Marys -6.5 vs Robert Morri ----------Under 129.5 (129)

                                +0.0 - Middle Tenn St +3 at Marshall ----------Under 161.5 (161)
                                +0.0 - Niagara +5 at Marist ----------Under 136.5 (135)
                                +0.0 - IPFW +3 at Oral Roberts ----------No Value (163)

                                ----------------------------

                                SAME

                                +13.0 - Citadel -1 vs NC Greensboro
                                +12.5 - Florida Atlantic +6.5 vs Old Dominion
                                +9.0 - E.Tennessee St +3 at Wofford
                                +4.5 - Notre Dame +3.5 at Syracuse
                                +3.0 - Iowa +4 at Maryland

                                ----------------------------

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X