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NFL 2016 Picks

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  • NFL 2016 Picks

    THURSDAY 9/8

    Broncos +3 +100
    -----------------------
    NFL 0-0 for +0.00 Units
    _______________________

  • #2
    SUNDAY 9/11

    Saints -2.5
    Chargers +7
    Vikings -2.5
    Browns +4
    Bills +3
    Bengals -1

    -----------------------
    NFL 1-0 for +1.00 Units
    _______________________

    Comment


    • #3
      MONDAY 9/12

      Steelers -2.5
      49ers +3

      -----------------------
      NFL 3-3-1 for -0.30 Units
      _______________________

      Comment


      • #4
        SUNDAY 9/18

        Bengals +3.5
        Saints +4.5
        Colts +6.5

        -----------------------
        NFL 5-3-1 for +1.70 Units
        _______________________

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by fuqer View Post
          SUNDAY 9/18

          Bengals +3.5
          Saints +4.5
          Colts +6.5

          -----------------------
          NFL 5-3-1 for +1.70 Units
          _______________________
          Falcons +4.5

          Comment


          • #6
            MONDAY 9/19

            Bears -3
            -----------------------
            NFL 7-5-1

            Comment


            • #7


              THURSDAY 9/22 - MONDAY 9/26

              Eagles +3.5
              Raiders +1.5
              Jets +3
              Giants -4.5
              Saints -3
              Texans -1
              Lions +7.5
              -----------------------

              NFL 7-6-1 for +0.40 Units
              _______________________

              Eagles +3.5 vs Steelers

              If you can't beat them, join 'em, right? I picked against them the first two weeks and lost both times. The Steelers haven't won in Philly since 1955, granted they don't play every year, but they've lost the last 8 in Philly.

              Wentz has proven to not be your typical rookie QB and the Eagles have looked pretty good as a whole. Considering the Steelers are last in the league after two games with only 1 sack, Wentz should have time to pick apart the Steelers soft zone defense. Wentz has yet to throw an INT yet, so I hate to say it, I would expect Roethlisberger to throw one before him.

              Roethlisberger wasn't throwing very good balls vs the Bengals, I've seen it before and I can always tell right way that he is going to have an off day, he always bounces back though. He was facing constant pressure and I'm not as high on their OL as some are, but he should have more time against the Eagles and the weather prolly won't be as bad. The Steelers will get their points, they are just too talented on offense, but their defense is highly suspect, especially against a QB who has some pocket presence, unlike Cousins who got scared from a 3 man rush.

              The Steelers are 2nd in the league so far in rush yards given up at 101, but it's more to do with teams attacking their weak secondary and not running much, they've only been ran against 30 times in two games. They can be ran against though, but why try when you can complete 75% of your passes. I'm hoping the Steelers will have at least a little bit of a letdown after beating their hated rivals. I'm sure the Steelers will try to show the rookie some new things, but Wentz seems to be able to make a quick decision and find the best matchup. This just seems like a spot for the Steelers to have their usual September letdown game.


              The Eagles are 0-10 SUATS L10 as a Homedog.
              -------------------------------------------
              Raiders +1.5 at Titans

              The Lions wasn't able to keep Mariota in the pocket, but I don't think that will be the case against the Raiders. The Titans also don't have a Julio Jones or the WR's that the Saints had that torched the Raiders defense.

              Both teams should be able to run the ball fairly well, as both have strong runners going against weak run stoppers. The biggest advantages for me, is Coaching and the Raiders' WRs. I'm not a fan of Mularkey, decent OC, terrible HC, IMO. And the Raiders have two beasts at WR compared to one of the weakest WR groups in the league for the Titans.


              The Raiders have covered their last six games as a road dog.
              --------------------------------------------
              Jets +3 at Chiefs

              The Jets weakest area has been giving up the deep ball, but I don't see the Chiefs being able to exploit that hole. Alex Smith is near the bottom of the league in YPA as usual at 6.5.

              Brandon Marshall might not play, but they still have Decker, Forte and their leading WR has actually been Quincy Enunwa. They should be able to run the ball vs the Chiefs, while their defense has been pretty good at stopping the run.


              The Chiefs are 0-12 ATS at home after a loss by at least six points when their opponent has scored at least 23% of their points from field goals, season-to-date.
              The Chiefs are 9-25 SU 26.5% at Home after a loss since 2008.
              ------------------------------------------
              Giants -4.5 vs Redskins

              Kirk Cousins has looked terrible and his team-mates and fans are starting to turn against him. Now they have to go on the road for the first time this season, facing 0-3 with all kinds of pressure on them. He has shown some bad pocket presence and the Giants improved front 7 sure aren't going to make it any easier on him.

              The Giants did a good job containing Elliot and Ingram so far, so I don't expect Matt Jones to have much success. I like their chances as long as Eli throws the ball to his own team. They have the better QB, WR's, Defense, and they are at home.


              The Giants are 14-0 ATS off a game as a favorite when they are facing a divisional opponent that has forced fewer than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.
              ------------------------------------------
              Saints -3 vs Falcons

              The Saints have won 15 out of the last 20 meetings with the Falcons, going 8-2 SU at Home. Granted this isn't the as good as a Saints team as years past, but they are at Home on MNF facing an 0-3 record.

              Both pass defenses are weak, but the Falcons have given up 4.6 YPC, so Ingram could have a big game.
              The two headed attack of Freeman and Coleman should be able to do some damage as well, but with Julio Jones battling a nagging injury, the advantage in the passing game goes to the Saints.

              The Falcons are 0-10 ATS when they are off a win and the line is within 3 points of pick and they are facing a team that has passed more than than 60 percent of their plays season-to-date.
              The Falcons 2-9 SU L11, 0-8 SU on the Road on MNF.
              The Saints are 19-3 SUATS at Home after a Road loss since 2008.
              The Saints are 7-2 L9 at Home on MNF.
              -------------------------------------------
              Texans -1 at Patriots

              BB is a great coach, but he doesn't play QB and I don't see them pulling this one against a tough Texans team. If the Patriots win this one, the NFL should just give him Coach of the Year already.

              The Patriots pass defense have been getting exploited and now they have to try to defend against Hopkins and Fuller.

              The Texans have lost 4 times vs the Patriots since 2012, including a playoff loss, they better take advantage of the situation and get them wile thier down.

              The Patriots are 0-9 ATS when they are off a home game and they had at least 32 minutes of possession time in each of their last two games.
              The Patriots 9-2 SU on Thursdays, 6-1 SU at Home.
              Texans 4-18 SU on the Road after 2 straight Home games, all NFL teams are just 40% SU in that spot.
              Texans 0-4 ATS on the Road on Thursdays.
              ------------------------------------------
              Lions +7.5 at Packers

              The Packers are 23-1 SU vs the Lions at Home, with the lone loss coming last year, 17-5-2 ATS. But, Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked like himself so far, only averaging 5.9 per pass, he seems a little antsy in the pocket. Their OL has been a little shaky so far, but the good thing for them is that the Lions are terrible at stopping the run, giving up a league high 5.1 YPC. So the Packers should be able to run the rock better and the Lions should be able to have some success through the air.

              I think the 7.5 points leaves a lot of room for a backdoor cover if needed, but with the Packers struggling on offense, that also seems like too many points.

              Comment


              • #8
                Jaguars +2.5

                Comment


                • #9
                  SUNDAY 10/02

                  Jaguars +1
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                  NFL 11-10-1 for +0.00 Units
                  _______________________

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by fuqer View Post
                    SUNDAY 10/02

                    Jaguars +1
                    -----------------------
                    NFL 11-10-1 for +0.00 Units
                    _______________________
                    Browns +7.5
                    Panthers -3 -105
                    Bears +3.5 -115
                    Texans -4
                    Raiders +4

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      SUNDAY 10/09

                      Eagles -2.5
                      Titans +3.5
                      Rams -2.5
                      Bengals PK
                      -----------------------
                      NFL 15-12-1 for +1.85 Units
                      _______________________

                      I wanted to get them in early this week, in case they cross over the key numbers.

                      -------------------------------------

                      The Eagles get revenge for a 45-14 loss in Detroit last year and they've had a week to think about it.
                      ------------------
                      The Dolphins haven't been good as a Home Favorite going 11-27-1 ATS since 2007. They don't deserve any points for Home Field Advantage and they aren't 3.5 points better than the Titans.
                      ------------------
                      I like the Rams vs mobile QB's, especially one with weak WR's.
                      ------------------
                      Cowboys 6-16 ATS L22 at Home, 13-29-1 ATS since 2011. Bengals have been a good road team going 8-1-1 ATS the last 2 seasons. The Bengals will be a step up in competition and be too much for the rookie.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        SUNDAY 10/16

                        3 - Cowboys +4.5 at Packers
                        3 - Bengals +8.5 at Patriots
                        2 - Bills -7.5 vs 49ers
                        2 - Dolphins +7.5 vs Steelers
                        2 - Rams +3 at Lions
                        2 - Saints +3 vs Panthers
                        2 - Colts +3 at Texans
                        1 - Eagles -2.5 at Redskins
                        1 - Ravens +3.5 at Giants
                        1 - Chiefs PK at Raiders
                        1 - Seahawks -6.5 vs Falcons
                        1 - Bears -2 vs Jaguars
                        0 - Titans -7 vs Browns
                        0 - Cardinals -7.5 vs Jets

                        -----------------------
                        NFL 16-15-1 for -0.45 Units
                        _______________________

                        I've been doing percentage plays but I'm going back to units for my birthday weekend. GLA!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I finished up 2.3 Units yesterday thanks to only losing 1 out of my 7 multi unit plays. I had some tough pushes with with the Rams and Colts and some tough losses with the Ravens and Bears.

                          This was the first week I felt comfortable with the amount of data to start capping using this seasons numbers. I was still a little hesitant about relying on it too heavily on this week but I wish I would of. I'll post this week's results and next weeks.

                          ATS VALUE CAP

                          WIN - 7.9 - Bills -15.4 vs 49ers
                          PUSH - 6.8 - Colts -3.3 at Texans
                          WIN - 6.4 - Patriots -14.9 vs Bengals
                          WIN - 5.8 - Saints -2.3 vs Panthers
                          WIN - 5.3 - Falcons +0.7 at Seahawks
                          LOSS - 4.1 - Raiders -5.6 vs Chiefs
                          WIN - 3.1 - Giants -6.1 vs Ravens
                          PUSH - 3.0 - Rams PK at Lions
                          WIN - 2.6 - Jaguars -0.6 at Bears
                          WIN - 2.4 - Cowboys +2.1 at Packers
                          WIN - 2.1 - Browns +3.9 at Titans
                          WIN - 1.4 - Dolphins +5.6 vs Steelers
                          0.7 - Jets +6.8 at Cardinals
                          WIN - 0.6 - Chargers +2.4 vs Broncos
                          WIN - 0.5 - Redskins +2.5 vs Eagles

                          ---------------------------------------------------

                          VALUE CAP

                          7.8 - Steelers -3.8 vs Patriots
                          6.9 - 49ers -4.9 vs Bucs
                          6.0 - Bills -9 at Dolphins
                          5.5 - Browns +4.5 at Bengals
                          5.0 - Rams -2.5 nt Rams
                          3.2 - Colts -0.7 at Titans
                          3.1 - Lions -4.6 vs Redskins
                          2.8 - Jets -2.8 vs Ravens
                          2.6 - Packers -11.6 vs Bears
                          1.9 - Chargers +4.6 at Falcons
                          1.7 - Chiefs -8.2 vs Saints
                          1.2 - Raiders +0.3 at Jaguars
                          0.6 - Broncos -7.1 vs Texans
                          0.6 - Vikings -3.1 at Eagles
                          0.2 - Seahawks +0.8 at Cardinals




                          -----------------------------------------------

                          The Steelers game doesn't reflect Ben being out yet. He's got to be worth at least a TD over Landry Jones.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            MONDAY 10/17

                            Jets +7.5

                            Under 46

                            -----------------------
                            NFL 21-20-3 for +1.85 Units
                            _______________________

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              SUNDAY 10/23

                              4 - Chargers +6.5
                              2 - Colts +3 -120
                              2 - Browns +10
                              2 - Vikings -2.5
                              -----------------------
                              NFL 22-21-3 for +1.75 Units
                              _______________________

                              More later, but felt I needed to lock these in now.

                              Comment

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