Response to Walt's stupid Broncos season preview

[belgariontheking]

Just in case you didn't know the term "Nose-tackle" doesn't only mean the guy between the two 3-4 DEs. There are 4-3 teams that use nose tackles. Pat Williams for example.

Thanks. Actually, I didn't know that.

So, some of the details in my post are invalid, but the overall point stands. Maybe there are 17 NTs in the league. Being top 15 still doesn't mean anything.

[BroncosCon]

Well 3-4 NT's mostly play the 0 technique directly over the Center. 4-3 NT's play 1 technique and play between the strong side C and G. There's a little difference.

[Descendency]

Well 3-4 NT's mostly play the 0 technique directly over the Center. 4-3 NT's play 1 technique and play between the strong side C and G. There's a little difference.

It's not like they aren't terribly similar either. Kris Jenkins was drafted by the Panthers before going to the Jets. I know there is a difference between them, but they are very similar as well.

edit: When someone says "nose tackle" I don't know whether they mean both or 34 NT. I tend to assume they mean both though.

[BroncosCon]

It's not like they aren't terribly similar either. Kris Jenkins was drafted by the Panthers before going to the Jets. I know there is a difference between them, but they are very similar as well.

edit: When someone says "nose tackle" I don't know whether they mean both or 34 NT. I tend to assume they mean both though.

I give you props for having the knowledge which most don't know. The 0 technique is harder because he will be doubled by either guard/center depending on what side the play goes on. The 1 technique will either get doubled or be one-on-one with the guard, depending on the blocking scheme or play.

[asdqqq]

Still - it's the Raiders. Maintaining the defensive status quo from that game would have been disastrous against any good team (giving up >4 ypc and 100+ yards to a horrible O-line and a team with no threat to pass with Jamal Williams does not translate well). As the NT's responsibilities are primarily against the run, maintaining a level of play similar to what Williams put forth against the Raiders would have reflected very poorly on him. And if he did in fact maintain that play for a whole season, it'd be safe to say that he was in decline.

New personnel or not, a NT cannot allow the Raiders, of all teams, to consistently pick up solid chunks of yardage on the ground. I wouldn't call a NT garbage based on one game, but I think it's safe to say that a Williams 3 years younger wouldn't have been blown off the ball so easily by mediocre talent.

I agree that if he had played badly the whole season it would definitely indicate decline. I just don’t think you can take anything from the stats from one particular game, even if it was against the Raiders.

I mean the Raiders rushed for 119 yards and 6.3 yards a carry against the Jets last season, but over the whole season the Jets had the second best defensive line in the league according to footballoutsiders. And they rushed for 67 yards and 2.7 yards a carry in their first meeting with the Chiefs, yet the Chiefs ranked dead last over the course of the whole year. And just to look at your “3 years ago” comment more closely, in 2007 San Diego allowed 122 yards and 4.2 per carry to Oakland with Williams at NT.

Individual games are fluky, and a lot more in-depth analysis is involved to know what it is the stats actually indicate.

Gregg might be garbage - we won't know because there's so much talent around him. Bad play can be masked by that much talent.

Gregg was the starting NT and Bannan (now of the garbage Broncos d-line) was his primary back up. Apparently you think that you can have the best defensive line in football with an all garbage NT position. I’ll just respectfully disagree. Everything I’ve heard is that solid NT play is essential in the 3-4.

At the same time, Williams will be exposed with no talent around him whatsoever (besides Dumervil). Walter, in his preview, only claimed the Broncos' D-line was going to be garbage - not specifically Williams. There's a chance he can be great and can mask his teammates' weaknesses, just as there's a chance that he is in decline (which will be amplified by his teammates' weaknesses). Given the Raiders game, it doesn't appear as if Williams is capable of covering for his teammates any more. And given all the trends I mentioned, the latter option is the most sensible to assume.

Again, Walter only categorized the D-line as garbage. I think that assumption is fair when the two ends are garbage and the nose tackle has a significant probability of being in decline.

I have only been looking at Williams as an example, so I’m not going to get into the conclusion that there is no talent around him whatsoever, other than to say that even Walter acknowledges the secondary was very good last year and that Dumerville and DJ, half of the starting linebacking core, are dynamic talents.

And I think it is a much fairer implication from what he wrote to say that he thinks the Broncos d-line will be garbage because Williams will himself be garbage then to read it as saying it will be garbage in spite of Williams playing well. And his comments on this thread certainly back that view up.

There are plenty of reports of people looking good in the offseason, when there aren't any pads on and nothing is at game speed. We'll know whether or not Williams is fully healed when he steps foot onto the field on a Sunday. Until then, it's more realistic to make a projection based on probability.

It would be fine to take that stance if Walter didn’t repeatedly rely on such reports in his other season previews, including the reports that Gregg was healthy last year. It's this "selective hearing" that makes it look like he's got an agenda outside of fair and balanced analysis, even if it is really only indicative of a lack of discipline or laziness.