Response to Walt's stupid Broncos season preview

[Walter]

From Brandon C:

I read you preview of the Denver Broncos and though I believe you guys did an excellent job I believe that you are incorrect about how they will do this year. The Broncos will turn your heads this year. You will will want to review what you said when this year is done. Thank you for you insight, many would not look as deep as you did to create you preview. I wish you all the best.


My Response:

Hey, I've been wrong before, as anyone has, but I don't understand how the Broncos can improve when they just lost their top offensive playmaker. They'll probably win 4-8 games this year. We'll see what happens.

[BroncosCon]

[B]
My Response:


I'm not sure how you can say Kyle Orton outperformed Jay Cutler. Orton had better numbers, but you can't even compare the two supporting casts. You have to compare Cutler's 2008 to Orton's 2009 because it's the same offense. The 2008 Cutler was undoubtedly better than the 2009 Orton, who will never lead a team deep into the playoffs because of his weak arm.

Those are promising players you listed with a ton of upside, but there's no guarantee any of them will pan out. Regardless, it's irrelevant for my 2009 preview because Tim Tebow and Eric Decker aren't even going to play this year, while Demaryius Thomas is a really raw receiver.



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You nailed it Walter, promising players - just not necessarily for 2010. Rookie o-linemen are more miss than hit their first year. Quinn did absolutely nothing last year. Thomas is learning quickly, but WR is one of the hardest positions to learn in the NFL and he's very raw. Decker is still hurt. Moreno needs to find his groove, he was thinking too much last year. Orton may be a bit better this year in his second year running this offense, but he can't throw deep and the whole league knows it.

[Walter]

From Joe M. again:

Thanks for the response.


I see Thomas as a #1 receiver. You don't. At this point neither of us has any data from NFL games to back up our view. You see Thomas as a flawed player who was drafted much too high - ala Heyward-Bay. I see Thomas as Brandon Marshall with more speed, smarts and a much better attitude - at a much cheaper price. You failed to address my point as to whether or not a team even needs a true #1 receiver to be successful in the NFL.


The Chargers let Williams go for the same reason that the Eagles Let Dawkins go - money. Neither team felt that the aging veterans had much left. Dawkins proved otherwise last year. As a broncos fan I am hoping Williams does the same. Frankly the odds are against it given Jamal's weight and age and the pounding that NTs take, but even if he is diminished, I still see him as a upgrade over the starting NTs for the Broncos last year - Smith and Thomas. In 2008 Jamal Williams had 56 tackles, 1.5 sacks and 3 passes defended.


In the first five games of 2009, the Denver Broncos defense gave up a grand total of 33 points. How was this accomplished with no talent? The Denver Broncos defense had talent, talent enough to accomplish that historic low in points surrendered to start a season. What the 2009 defense lacked was depth. In reality that is what almost every unit of the 2009 Broncos lacked - depth. Will the Broncos have more depth at DL in 2010? I say yes, you say no. You can point to last year's results; I can point to the free agent signings. Your response is that Green, Williams and Bannan are not upgrades over Smith, Thomas and McBean. I say that they are.


If the defense is deeper and avoids injuries, I see the Broncos going 9-7 (maybe 10-6 if the OL gels quickly and both tackles are close to 100% healthy). If either line plays like they did in the last 10 games of 09, I see your 6-10 prediction coming true.


I'd love to revisit some of these arguments after the season. I will fully own up to being wrong if the facts turn out that way. Will you?


My Response:

I definitely will not own up if I'm wrong! Just kidding. Hey, everyone gets stuff wrong. Maybe I'm wrong about the Broncos, but I'm pretty confident in my projection that they will win 4-8 games this year.

Thomas might become a Brandon Marshall, but he's way too raw and rookie receivers seldom thrive right away.

I don't think you can compare Williams to Dawkins. The Eagles let Dawkins go because they're cheap. Plus, safeties play well into their late 30s.

The Broncos' hot start was a result of playing weak opponents and/or playing with fire. Trust me, I had the Broncos +3 over Patriots as my October NFL Pick of the Month. It was just a great handicapping situation for them. Had those two teams played in December, however, New England would have destroyed them. Denver's hot start was pretty much a mirage. The real team was the one that went 2-8 down the stretch.

[EL Guapo]

I’m still waiting for the immature homer Giants fans to get here. I know they’re out there. It’s an NFC East love fest over here.

[AwesomeKellyAZ]

I want to play Fantasy Football with Broncos Fan Fax guy! You're the one who would put value in receiving, say, 3 mediocre players for 1 great player... because 3 is better than 1! It doesn't matter that you can't replace 1 player with 3 on the field in your eyes. It must be a great deal based on simple quantity. Let me know where to send the invitation; I might have an opening in my league!

[Alex Adams]

"If Jamal Williams had something left, why would the Chargers let him go?"

Is that really your reasoning? Why would the Chargers have Vincent Jackson and McNeil sit out the season? Money. Jamal Williams was poached by the Broncos.

[Alex Adams]

You're killing me with the Jamal Williams bit. In your response to me you said something about him being great into 2008. What's changed? His arm injury that has fully repaired and doens't run risk of repeat injury? The man was elite last time you saw him on the field. The Chargers aren't rich. They're not paying Jackson or McNeil either. They lost their NT to Denver. You don't have to agree with my take, but it's at least an option - that SD isn't rich and their take on run defense is scoring an ass load of points so that teams don't run on them. You will be wrong on Jamal Williams. He was terrific (top-three) pretty much every year before last year when he didn't play. What's changed? It seems as if you're replacing your opinion for your thought that the Chargers had an opinion on him. Me, I make my own opinions, rather than take what I perceive the Chargers' opinion to be.

[LTomlinson31]

From Brandon C:

I read you preview of the Denver Broncos and though I believe you guys did an excellent job I believe that you are incorrect about how they will do this year. The Broncos will turn your heads this year. You will will want to review what you said when this year is done. Thank you for you insight, many would not look as deep as you did to create you preview. I wish you all the best.


My Response:

Hey, I've been wrong before, as anyone has, but I don't understand how the Broncos can improve when they just lost their top offensive playmaker. They'll probably win 4-8 games this year. We'll see what happens.

I am 100% convinced by his argument already.

[Walter]

From Alex Adams:

I appreciate your response. Sincerely. I'll try to keep this short as I'm sure you're busy.

Yes, J. Williams was a great nose tackle in 2008, as you said. The only thing that's changed is that he's had an entire year to rest and prepare. He came into camp in great shape and even better weight. When a reciever takes a year off it's a big minus, he's lost valuable time to develop timinhg and trust between him and his QB. When a veteran NT takes a year off, it's a vacation. Jamal will be elite this year. We'll agree to disagree.

Speaking of the word elite, and believe me I don't throw it around loosely (even if it sounds like that right now), Baltimore has devoloped a defensive line that has bordered on that territory every year for the last what, like a decade? They had a top-five run defense last year, and every year since 2006. They've not allowed an average of 100 yards rushing in the same span. Are you really trying to tell me that Bannan wasn't a big part of that? Yes, he's a role player. He plays what like 30% of their snaps? Is that really supposed to be a knock when he's playing behind talent that is the definition of our new favorite word... elite? Bannan would start for 90% of NFL teams. His snap count was limited in Baltimore due to who he was playing behind. What?

D. Thomas is raw. My original point should have been more clear. Imagine him as a 2nd round pick instead of the Broncos taking him where they did. Would he still be so despised? You say you don't hate him, yet you say he can't run routes and can't catch. Time will tell, but again, he has potential. And btw, his six or so practices have been very good. As Josh McDaniels said at the time, he is who we thought he was (or something very close to that).

As for your 2.1/2.2 win prediction rate, well, we both know how averages work. You can be epically wrong on one and exactly right predicting another for that average to work out. What was your prediction for the Broncos last year? Two wins off? I doubt that. My guess, without looking it up, is that you were wrong about us last year and that you've not learned from it. Perhaps next year?

Thanks again. I enjoyed your site relating to draft picks. I even enjoyed reading your research on each of the 32 teams this year. You've done your homework. You just have this one wrong.


My Response:

I can't see Jamal Williams being elite at 34. Even if he's healthy, he's a declining player. At best, I think he can be serviceable.

Fair point about Baltimore's line, but the fact remains that Bannan will be asked to do so much more in Denver. Is he up to it? You may think so. I have my doubts. But neither of us really knows. All we can do is speculate. You're the Broncos fan, so you have hope. I'm the casual observer, so I'm more pessimistic.

I thought the second round was the right spot for Demaryius Thomas. In fact, I mocked him to Denver in the second round. I think it's a really good fit. But I don't think he should be expected to be a star right away.

I was off by four wins with the Broncos last year, but I feel as though my projection was dead on. The Broncos had several fluky wins early on, combined with great handicapping situations in their favor. Denver +3 over New England was my October NFL Pick of the Month. It was just a fantastic situation for the Broncos. Had those two teams played in December, however, the Patriots would have smoked them. The real Broncos last year was the team that went 2-8 down the stretch. So, to be fair, give them a 2-6 record for eight games, and multiply that by two to get my predicted 4-12 record.

[Walter]

"If Jamal Williams had something left, why would the Chargers let him go?"

Is that really your reasoning? Why would the Chargers have Vincent Jackson and McNeil sit out the season? Money. Jamal Williams was poached by the Broncos.

If the Chargers felt like he had something left, why would they just effortlessly let him go like that? He's 34 and coming off a season-ending injury.