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  1. MREAST is offline Undefeated ATS After The Game Starts Rookie
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    Oct 2010

    Seattle @ chicago

    Thought I'd post this after the game started so paying clients don't rebel,

    The Chicago Bears had a much better season than anyone had imagined. The Packers and Vikings were supposed to fight it out for supremacy in the NFC North, but it was the Bears that won. The Seattle Seahawks are now the Cinderella darling of the playoffs. Let's rewind the tale of this team over the last 2 weeks and then before. The Seahawks hosted the St. Louis Rams for what amounted to a playin game in week 17. Noone wanted to touch the Seahawks, with 70% of the public on St. Louis. The Seahawks rose up and beat the Rams rather handily16-6 keeping them out of the endzone. Last week noone wanted any part of this team vs the reigning Superbowl Champion New Orleans Saints, but they rose up to the occasion and beat them 41-36. Now the Seahawks have been anointed the chosen one, as a team that noone wanted to touch is now a public darling with 60% behind them. Are we overlooking th fact this team gave up nearly 500 yards last week? Maybe we are forgetting their last 5 games vs teams with a winning record show them losing by a total of 114 points or 22.8ppg? Oh but they beat the Saints, and beat Chicago in Chicago, therefore they will stay within 10 points here. WRONG! The fact they beat Chicago here, is serving notice to the Bears and they won't be caught off guard. Seattle lost 9 games by 15 points or more, which tops any team in the league, and they are not home anymore! They will get crushed here. This also fits my 18-1 ATS system for the divisional round a well as the 22-6 ATS system. Bears in a blowout.

  2. McNulty's Avatar
    McNulty is offline The Mod that was Promised Football Debacler
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    Apr 2008

    Posted when the Bears have a 14-0 lead? Nice.
    Lord Commander of Walter's Kingsguard
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  3. Quote Originally Posted by MREAST View Post
    Bears in a blowout.
    Quote Originally Posted by McNulty View Post
    Posted when the Bears have a 14-0 lead? Nice.

  4. Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Belgium, Europe

    Probably had 2 versions prepared

  5. MREAST is offline Undefeated ATS After The Game Starts Rookie
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    Oct 2010

    exactly righ I had 2 versions, I have been caught! Had a big writeup repared for the Seahawks too

  6. MREAST is offline Undefeated ATS After The Game Starts Rookie
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    Oct 2010

    gave half my clients the eahawks one and half the Bears one, just as Walter says. But I'll tell you what, if anyone can find anywhere a writeup I did picking the Seahawks here, or a client getting the Seahawks from me, I'll pay that person 50,000.00!

    So go ahead, find it!

  7. MREAST is offline Undefeated ATS After The Game Starts Rookie
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    Oct 2010

    yes Bears were up 14-0 correct! I made it all up just for the forum

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    Apr 2009

    BTGM - Houston Texans

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  9. Join Date
    Oct 2009

    I feel dumb for even participating but just don't reply to this idiot. He's shown that he can go on for pages, ranting about **** when no one is even reading or replying. He's a hack just let him go away.

  10. MREAST is offline Undefeated ATS After The Game Starts Rookie
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    Oct 2010

    Food for thought

    I have been at this for about 25 years, and there is a lot that goes into handicapping a game, and there are a lot of gamblers out there that tend to make mistakes because of inexperience, or just a plain misunderstanding of math, sequences, streaks, hot, cold, pick the variable and it almost surely applies. I wanted to take the time to set the table on something that will always lead the misguided gambler to the road of the coin flip, and a 50-50 outcome that will have him reloading his account, and shaking his head each and everytime.
    During the course of an NFL season there will always be teams that streak good and bad during the course of the season. We see bad teams rattle off several in a row ATS, or good teams falter for what seems like weeks on end. The question is twofold. Do you allow yourself to latch hold of these streaks, where seeing a team covering 4,5,6, even 7 weeks in a row and play on them? Do you jump on the fade wagon when teams start to get on a losing streak ATS? The second part of the question, is should you jump on or off these streaking teams? I'm here to provide the answer that may, or may not surprise you.
    Going back 25 years in the NFL, which covers a lot of games and a lot of streaks, here is the answer. teams that covered 2 in a row, are 1017-1004 ATS in their next game. Teams that covered 3 in a row are 449-466 ATS in their next game. Teams that reach 4 straight covers are 187-216 ATS in their next game. When they get to 5 they are 80-84 in their next game. By the time the streak reaches 6, they are 30-38 ATS in their next game, and finally at 7 they are 12-12 ATS in their next game.
    The lesson in all of this is don't think playing on a team on an ATS streak is hot or cold, because the next game is just as close to a 50-50 proposition than any other team. There is no advantage gained or lost. Gamblers like to be in a comfort zone, so playing a streaking team is comfortable, but it is never profitable longterm as you can see.
    Looking at the negative side of this we find teams that have lost 2 in a row ATS are 1010-964 in the next game, 3 in a row it becomes 436-433, at 4 in a row it becomes 193-192, at 5 in a row it becomes 82-87, at 6 in a row 34-34, and at 7 it is 15-12.
    We find the same thing, a long ATS losing streak, or one of any kind should not influence your choice on a game, because psychologically it may encourage, or deter you, but financially it will not show you a profit. The biggest thing to remember here, is if you like a game, don't let a long ATS winning streak by their opponent deter you from playing it, as it is a complete non-factor! Likewise, don't let a long ATS losing streak deter you from playing on a team you like. Just like it should never be the reason to take or fade a team, it should also never be the reason to stay away from a game you like.
    here's wishing you a profitable balance to the football season, and if you like what you see in my results, just know you'll get your money's worth, many times over!

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