+ Reply to Thread
Page 2 of 7
FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 ... LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 68

Thread: Seattle @ chicago

  1. MREAST is offline Undefeated ATS After The Game Starts Rookie
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    113

    Food for thought

    I have been at this for about 25 years, and there is a lot that goes into handicapping a game, and there are a lot of gamblers out there that tend to make mistakes because of inexperience, or just a plain misunderstanding of math, sequences, streaks, hot, cold, pick the variable and it almost surely applies. I wanted to take the time to set the table on something that will always lead the misguided gambler to the road of the coin flip, and a 50-50 outcome that will have him reloading his account, and shaking his head each and everytime.
    During the course of an NFL season there will always be teams that streak good and bad during the course of the season. We see bad teams rattle off several in a row ATS, or good teams falter for what seems like weeks on end. The question is twofold. Do you allow yourself to latch hold of these streaks, where seeing a team covering 4,5,6, even 7 weeks in a row and play on them? Do you jump on the fade wagon when teams start to get on a losing streak ATS? The second part of the question, is should you jump on or off these streaking teams? I'm here to provide the answer that may, or may not surprise you.
    Going back 25 years in the NFL, which covers a lot of games and a lot of streaks, here is the answer. teams that covered 2 in a row, are 1017-1004 ATS in their next game. Teams that covered 3 in a row are 449-466 ATS in their next game. Teams that reach 4 straight covers are 187-216 ATS in their next game. When they get to 5 they are 80-84 in their next game. By the time the streak reaches 6, they are 30-38 ATS in their next game, and finally at 7 they are 12-12 ATS in their next game.
    The lesson in all of this is don't think playing on a team on an ATS streak is hot or cold, because the next game is just as close to a 50-50 proposition than any other team. There is no advantage gained or lost. Gamblers like to be in a comfort zone, so playing a streaking team is comfortable, but it is never profitable longterm as you can see.
    Looking at the negative side of this we find teams that have lost 2 in a row ATS are 1010-964 in the next game, 3 in a row it becomes 436-433, at 4 in a row it becomes 193-192, at 5 in a row it becomes 82-87, at 6 in a row 34-34, and at 7 it is 15-12.
    We find the same thing, a long ATS losing streak, or one of any kind should not influence your choice on a game, because psychologically it may encourage, or deter you, but financially it will not show you a profit. The biggest thing to remember here, is if you like a game, don't let a long ATS winning streak by their opponent deter you from playing it, as it is a complete non-factor! Likewise, don't let a long ATS losing streak deter you from playing on a team you like. Just like it should never be the reason to take or fade a team, it should also never be the reason to stay away from a game you like.
    here's wishing you a profitable balance to the football season, and if you like what you see in my results, just know you'll get your money's worth, many times over!

  2. Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    46,227

    I like your picks Mr.East tell Walt to hire you so we can get your picks for free.
    WalterFootball.com Forum Moderator



    Siena NCAAB Record (1-2)
    Next Game - 11/29 @ Loyola (Md.)(1-1)
    Last Game - 11/19 @ St. Bonaventure (1-2) W 73-70
    Prize Pool Total = $2

    Season long bets

    Trent Richardson Under 825.5 RY 3 units
    Tom Brady Over 4400 PY 1 unit
    Eric Decker Over 825.5 RY 5 units
    Mercedes Lewis Over 500.5 PY 3 units
    Geno Atkins Under 8.5 Sacks 3 units
    Calvin Johnson Under 11.5 TDs 3 units
    Ravens Over 8.5 Wins 3 units
    Bills Under 6.5 Wins 3 units

  3. MREAST is offline Undefeated ATS After The Game Starts Rookie
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    113

    I like your picks Mr.East tell Walt to hire you so we can get your picks for free.

    I won't post picks in here anymore, just after the games start, too many negative people here, I tried posting picks, but it just stirs the pot of all the tout haters, because they have a sterotype in mind, and I could pick 100 winners in a row, with good incites to games, but they will still find something wrong, its the nature of forums, they are too programmed to lose so when you try to help them, they will always find fault.

  4. MREAST is offline Undefeated ATS After The Game Starts Rookie
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    113

    So if they are negative when I post before the game starts, now they can be negative when I post after the games start, and guess what? I don't lose anything either way, maybe they should weigh their options and realize if they didn't have such a thick distaste for a "tout" and classify them all as scammers, and had an openmind, they might just benefit from one.

  5. Quote Originally Posted by MREAST View Post
    I have been at this for about 1 year
    Fixed.

  6. Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    2,913

    Posting in a legendary thread.
    Follow me on Twitter for my draft thoughts and updates!
    Quote Originally Posted by piazzajordan2 View Post
    Childress is chewing gum like a snotty middle school female whore.

  7. Walter's Avatar
    Walter is offline Administrator 1000% USDA Young Stallion
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    56,404

    Quote Originally Posted by MREAST View Post
    I won't post picks in here anymore, just after the games start
    I'm changing my Pick of the Month to Bears -10. Have a strong feeling they'll win by 11.

  8. I am placing $100,000,000,000,000 on the Steelers to beat the Ravens.

  9. Walter's Avatar
    Walter is offline Administrator 1000% USDA Young Stallion
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    56,404

    Guys, bet USA -130 over England in the Revolutionary War. Guaranteed winner.

  10. MrEast i respect your pick but your logic behind posting your play after the game is 14-0 is completely rediculous. This market should be ALL about the people vs the books. What walter does here with his free service is trys his best to help people beat vegas and beat the books. What your doing is the exact opposite, if you have info on a game why not help other people beat the already billionaire bookies? if you dont want to post info on the game thats fine but DO NOT come in here and post your pick after the game is 14-0 . you;ve lost all my respect

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts