MDBs NFL and College Football Picks 2012

[mdb17]

NFL Divisional Playoff Trends:

1. Ravens @ Broncos
- Wild Card winners take to the road off one win-exact they dip to a filthy 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in these affairs since 1990.
- Ravens are 2-6 ATS against teams that finished with winning records in 2012
- Ravens are 3-4-1 ATS away in 2012
- Ravens are 1-5 ATS as dogs of 6 or more under Harbaugh

- Teams on a five-game winning streak entering the playoffs are 2-7 ATS as home favorites off a bye since 2001 in divisional round
- Broncos are 2-3 ATS against teams that finished with winning records in 2012
- Broncos are 6-2 ATS at home in 2012
- Peyton Manning is 4-10 ATS in the playoffs
- Manning is 8-0 ATS against the Ravens since 2003

Ravens are +9 in turnover margin while the Broncos are -1. Ravens are 15th in sacks while the Broncos are 2nd in sacks allowed. Broncos are 1st in sacks while the Ravens are 20th in sacks allowed.

2. Packers @ 49ers
- Wild Card winners take to the road off one win-exact they dip to a filthy 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in these affairs since 1990.
- Packers are 9-7 ATS against teams that finish with winning records since 2011
- Packers are 8-8 ATS away since 2011
- Packers are 37-22 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy
- Rodgers is 13-5 ATS as an underdog

- 49ers are 3-4 ATS against teams that finish with winning records in 2012
- 49ers are 4-4 ATS at home in 2012
- 49ers are 17-8-1 ATS at home at night since 1995 (8-2-1 ATS since 2007)

Packers are +7 in turnover margin while the 49ers are +9. Packers are 4th in sacks while the 49ers are 23rd in sacks allowed. 49ers are 11th in sacks while the Packers are 31st in sacks allowed.

3. Seahawks @ Falcons
- Seahawks are 8-0 ATS against teams that finish with winning records since 2012
- Seahawks are 5-4 ATS away in 2012
- Seahawks are 4-16 ATS in 1 p.m. games
- Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 8-3 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.

- Falcons are 4-0 ATS against teams that finish with winning records since 2012
- Falcons are 4-4 ATS at home in 2012 (7-1 SU)

Seahawks and Falcons are +13 in turnover margin. Seahawks are 18th in sacks (without Clemons) while the Falcons are 7th in sacks allowed. Falcons are 28th in sacks allowed while the Seahawks are 12th in sacks allowed.

4. Texans @ Patriots
- Wild Card winners take to the road off one win-exact they dip to a filthy 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in these affairs since 1990.
- Dome teams are 3-8 ATS at cold weather sites since 2001
- Texans are 12-6 ATS against teams that finish with winning records since 2011
- Texans are 10-7 ATS away since 2011

- Patriots are 4-2 ATS against teams that finish with winning records in 2012
- Patriots are 4-4 ATS at home in 2012
- Patriots are 1-7 ATS in the playoffs since 2007 (1 win was Denver vs Tebow)
- Non-divisional teams that beat an opponent in the regular season and then meet them at the same site in the playoffs are 12-26 against the spread since 2002.

Texans are +12 in turnover margin but the Patriots are +25. Texans are 5th in sacks while the Patriots are 5th in sacks allowed. Patriots are 15th in sacks while the Texans are 7th in sacks allowed.

[mdb17]

Super Bowl Bets

2 Unit(different than regular units) bets:
- Under 47.5 points
- Vernon Davis under 51.5 yards
- Frank Gore over 83.5 yards
- Frank Gore over 19 carries
- Flacco to have more than 2 rushes

1 Unit(different than regular units) bets:
- Flacco over 255.5 yards
- Torrey Smith under 69.5 yards
- Crabtree over 82.5 yards
- SF to miss a FG 1st

[mdb17]

Took 49ers ML for 2 units because why the fuck not!