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  • Originally posted by Hunter View Post
    I don't buy into this too much. Too many factors with start time, general poster activity, and in the case of the 2/4 first post thing the fact that the first couple posts tending to come in a quick burst.
    I agree, but it's been true in every game. The Euros throw it off a bit, but even then people like Hyper, Sancho, mdb, and Tango have found the time to come in and be among those first ten posters who were non-Town.
    Originally posted by jepg
    I apologise to the entire Walter Football community for my bigoted views.

    I should be put on an island and nuked.
    Originally posted by jepg
    Blue is right

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Blue View Post
      You're the resident stats nerd. How much stock do you put into the fact that through 12 (more or less) full games of Mafia, an average of 4 out of the first 10 players who post are non-Town? And, what I find the more interesting number, in 9 of those games at least 2 of the first 4 posters were non-Town?

      Me, I find it interesting but not necessarily reliable (BIG variation with Superheroes and Rio II, with only 2 out of the first 10 posters being non-Town) and quite a few factors influencing the numbers (like Swag/Sancho/Hyper always posting early and consistently being non-Town). I don't really know why this happens, other than scum tend to be more active than Town for a number of reasons (more "fun" with the roles and being in a faction, having other people relying on you, not wanting to be seen avoiding the thread or lying low, etc.). However, coupled with Hunter's and Kaiser's behavior so far, I'm willing to bet at least one of them is scum.
      Two things, causation =/= correlation, so even if in the past that's held true, it's kind of silly to say posting early is scummy. Also, isn't the rule of thumb that ~33% of the field is non-town? If you assume the posting to be random, wouldn't you expect the average to be 3 or 4 out of 10 non-town? If you say it's high variance then there's probably no statistical significance to that.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Hunter View Post
        Probably.
        What about you Hunter? Are you scum?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Simonds View Post
          Hey Kaiser, are you scum?
          Nope I'm town.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Simonds View Post
            What about you Hunter? Are you scum?
            Thats the best way to find out
            sigpic

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Simonds View Post
              What about you Hunter? Are you scum?
              I am your salvation, for I will purify the town with fire.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Ckane138 View Post
                Two things, causation =/= correlation, so even if in the past that's held true, it's kind of silly to say posting early is scummy. Also, isn't the rule of thumb that ~33% of the field is non-town? If you assume the posting to be random, wouldn't you expect the average to be 3 or 4 out of 10 non-town? If you say it's high variance then there's probably no statistical significance to that.
                True, didn't really think about the average ratio of Town to scum.

                Still leaning Kaiser or Hunter today. Though frankly I don't see lynching Vitor having much downside given he hasn't been around lately.
                Originally posted by jepg
                I apologise to the entire Walter Football community for my bigoted views.

                I should be put on an island and nuked.
                Originally posted by jepg
                Blue is right

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Kaiser View Post
                  Nope I'm town.
                  Originally posted by Hunter View Post
                  I am your salvation, for I will purify the town with fire.
                  Good info here guys, hope you were paying attention to how I did that

                  Also, Hunter, wtf. I put the ball on a tee for you.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Blue View Post
                    You're the resident stats nerd. How much stock do you put into the fact that through 12 (more or less) full games of Mafia, an average of 4 out of the first 10 players who post are non-Town? And, what I find the more interesting number, in 9 of those games at least 2 of the first 4 posters were non-Town?

                    Me, I find it interesting but not necessarily reliable (BIG variation with Superheroes and Rio II, with only 2 out of the first 10 posters being non-Town) and quite a few factors influencing the numbers (like Swag/Sancho/Hyper always posting early and consistently being non-Town). I don't really know why this happens, other than scum tend to be more active than Town for a number of reasons (more "fun" with the roles and being in a faction, having other people relying on you, not wanting to be seen avoiding the thread or lying low, etc.). However, coupled with Hunter's and Kaiser's behavior so far, I'm willing to bet at least one of them is scum.
                    Doesn't anyone see how meaningless these stats are?

                    Scum percentages in games usually range between 30% to 35% (40% was the all-time high). So why would anyone find these numbers surprising or interesting?

                    Those beginning of game post fiigures are perfectly in line with the percentages of scum to town. Especially since you are excluding certain games as outliers to even have this weak argument make a shred of sense.

                    Call us when the scum percentage is above 60%. Otherwise the standard deviation is so minimal from the actual scum percentage in these games that it is a terrible way to devise potential suspects.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Blue View Post
                      Still leaning Kaiser or Hunter today. Though frankly I don't see lynching Vitor having much downside given he hasn't been around lately.
                      What have I done to be a lynch candidate? Hunter basically choked his way right through an argument and then jumped on me after he realized he misunderstood Swag's post.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Hunter View Post
                        I am your salvation, for I will purify the town with fire.
                        Trying to avoid the lie detector?

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by InjuredReserve View Post
                          Doesn't anyone see how meaningless these stats are?

                          Scum percentages in games usually range between 30% to 35% (40% was the all-time high). So why would anyone find these numbers surprising or interesting?

                          Those beginning of game post fiigures are perfectly in line with the percentages of scum to town. Especially since you are excluding certain games as outliers to even have this weak argument make a shred of sense.

                          Call us when the scum percentage is above 60%. Otherwise the standard deviation is so minimal from the actual scum percentage in these games that it is a terrible way to devise potential suspects.
                          Hey IR. Are you scum?

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by InjuredReserve View Post
                            Doesn't anyone see how meaningless these stats are?

                            Scum percentages in games usually range between 30% to 35% (40% was the all-time high). So why would anyone find these numbers surprising or interesting?

                            Those beginning of game post fiigures are perfectly in line with the percentages of scum to town. Especially since you are excluding certain games as outliers to even have this weak argument make a shred of sense.

                            Call us when the scum percentage is above 60%. Otherwise the standard deviation is so minimal from the actual scum percentage in these games that it is a terrible way to devise potential suspects.
                            You can't challenge mafia logic with real logic

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Body Burner View Post
                              Trying to avoid the lie detector?
                              I am town.

                              And come on. Have we seen the lie detector more than once?

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Kaiser View Post
                                What have I done to be a lynch candidate? Hunter basically choked his way right through an argument and then jumped on me after he realized he misunderstood Swag's post.
                                I jumped on you because of your extreme desire to follow the path of least resistance.

                                Comment

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