NFL Drafts and Mathematics

[jimmyp]

This one's for Matt, Walter or anyone else out there who knows way too much about the draft.

Has there been any analysis on success of drafting, e.g. by position? I was thinking about this while watching the snoozefest in Atlanta last night, Steve Young was talking about how so many high round QB picks don't work out. So, therefore, is there a position that is statistically safer to draft, e.g. more likely to be successful in the NFL?

A very simple definition of success might be if the players 2nd contract (if any) is richer than their 1st, adjusting for the salary cap increases. So therefore might it be possible to play the odds in the draft and try to pick up riskier positions by trades or free agency?

Before anyone flames me, I don't think QB could be that viable here, as if we look at the better QBs in the league, off the top of my head all of them are with their original franchise except Brees.

[Matt McGuire]

It's a poor argument. Just because most first round linebackers turn out great doesn't mean the next one will. Just because there are a lot of first round bust QBs doesn't mean there haven't been a lot of success at that position in the first round either.

Steve Young's analysis never really impresses me. He just gags whatever Jaws says.

I'd say the only positions I would stay away from in rounds 1 AND 2 are punters and kickers (and I don't care how great they are unless unhuman i.e. kicking 60 yarders)...because they are very shaky positions in terms of production from season to season and you can find very productive ones in the late rounds...and they just don't make a lot of plays. I really feel that the Jets made a huge mistake in taking Mike Nugent 3 years ago I believe in round 2 rather than upgrading other positions. You can find a really good kicker in round 4-7.

So I guess what Steve Young is saying is that teams should look for poor QB prospects and hope to get lucky, since that is what happened with guys like Derek Anderson, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, etc. He's an idiot, like most ESPN NFL analysts.