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Week 17 Case Study

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  • Week 17 Case Study

    I will break down how teams fared in must-win situations, resting-starters situations and other significant things.
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  • #2
    In 2006:

    Teams in a must win (2-4 ATS, 2-4 SU):
    Giants win and cover +2.5 at Wash
    Bengals lose -6 vs. Pitt
    Rams -3 lose at Minny
    Jets win and cover -11 vs. Oak
    Titans lose -3 vs. NE
    Broncos lose -10 vs. SF

    Teams playing for seeding (2-3 ATS, 4-1 SU):
    Cowboys lose -12.5 vs. Det
    Patriots win +3 at Ten
    Ravens win and cover -9.5 vs. Buf
    Colts win but DONT COVER -9 vs. Mia
    Chargers win but DONT COVER -14 vs. Arz

    Teams playing for nothing (1-3 ATS, 2-2 SU):
    Saints lose +3 vs. Car
    Seahawks win +3 at TB
    Eagles win but DON'T COVER -8 vs. Atl
    Bears lose -3 vs. GB
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    • #3
      Seahawks also won this past week for seeding... maybe Mike Holmgren takes the final weeks seriously.
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      • #4
        In 2005:

        Teams in a must win (4-2 ATS, 5-1 SU):
        Chargers lose -10 vs. Den
        Steelers win but DON'T COVER -16.5 vs. Det
        Chiefs win and cover -7.5 vs. Cin
        Panthers win and cover -3.5 at Atl
        Buccaneers win and cover -13 vs. NO
        Redskins win and cover -7.5 at Phi

        Teams playing for seeding (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU):
        Bengals lose +7.5 at KC
        Patriots lose -5 vs. Mia
        Giants win and cover -7.5 at Oak

        Teams playing for nothing (2-4 ATS, 3-3 SU):
        Broncos win +10 at SD
        Cowboys lose -12.5 vs. Stl
        Colts win but DON'T COVER -7 vs. Arz
        Seahawks lose +4.5 at GB
        Jaguars win and cover -3.5 vs. Ten (TAKE NOTE OF THIS!!!!!! JAGS, 40-13)
        Bears lose +4.5 at Min
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        • #5
          In 2004:

          Teams in a must win (2-4 ATS, 3-3 SU):
          Vikings lose -4 at Was (Randy Moss walk-off game)
          Panthers lose -7.5 vs. NO
          Ravens win but DONT COVER -11 vs. Mia
          Bills lose -9 vs. Pit
          Broncos win and cover -8.5 vs. Ind
          Jaguars win and cover -1 at Oak

          Teams playing for seeding (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU):
          Seahawks win but DONT COVER -6 vs. Atl

          Teams playing for nothing (5-2 ATS, 4-3 SU):
          Patriots win and cover -13 vs. SF
          Eagles lose +3.5 vs. Cin
          Steelers win and cover +9 at Buf
          Packers win +3 at Chi
          Falcons lose BUT COVER +6 at Sea
          Chargers win +3.5 vs. KC
          Colts lose +8.5 at Den
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          • #6
            This should be helpful for Week 17
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            • #7
              I'm sorry I think what you are trying to show is that teams that have to win don't cover the spread or even win. But I see 2-4 ATS 4-2 ATS and 2-4 ATS in must win situations isn't really convincing evidence that there is a pattern here.

              Same goes for teams playing for seeding..2-3 ATS, 1-2 ATS, 0-1 ATS maybe a losing pattern looks like its getting better ATS

              Teams playing for nothing 1-3 ATS, 2-4 ATS, and 5-2 ATS sorry no real pattern here.
              WalterFootball.com Forum Moderator




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              • #8
                As with any trend, system or pattern, you have to take it on a team-by-team basis. Find the teams who choke and those who don't.
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                • #9
                  "Find the teams who choke and those who don't."

                  Are the Packers chokers or is it too early to tell?

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                  • #10
                    Well, I was referring to teams in Week 17, but this team has no playoff experience, so it's a possibility... We saw them play poorly at Dallas.
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                    • #11
                      Using this information, I'm going to bet on the Browns SU. Very talented team playing a much maligned 49ers team that should have lost to Tampa Bay's 2nd string.

                      (Browns are playing 9ers correct?, I know it is some bad team).
                      2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

                      Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

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                      • #12
                        Hey walter thanks for this breakdown of the must win situations, and no need to win situations. I needed this piece of clarity in this upcoming week of ambiguity.

                        Thanks

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                        • #13
                          Wow the 2nd official Bucs fan on the WF forums...nice.
                          2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

                          Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by tampayay View Post
                            Hey walter thanks for this breakdown of the must win situations, and no need to win situations. I needed this piece of clarity in this upcoming week of ambiguity.

                            Thanks
                            Thanks for reading.
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                            • #15
                              am i the only eagles fan on this board?
                              Philadelphia Eagles - One.Team.Dream.City

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