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  • #16
    Not covering the spread is indicative of the favorite not playing as well as expected.
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    • #17
      ...or the people making the spreads to be off.
      WalterFootball.com Forum Moderator




      Siena NFL ATS Record(TBD)
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      • #18
        Originally posted by Walter View Post
        Not covering the spread is indicative of the favorite not playing as well as expected.
        "Not playing as well as" the casual fan expected. The people making the odds just want even money on both sides for playoff games correct?
        2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

        Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

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        • #19
          Not to agree or disagree with the rest of the discussion, but ATS statistics are flawed. Teams don't play to cover an artificial spread. They play to win.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Matt McGuire View Post
            The people making the odds just want even money on both sides for playoff games correct?
            No, that's very incorrect.
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            • #21
              Originally posted by Egg View Post
              Not to agree or disagree with the rest of the discussion, but ATS statistics are flawed. Teams don't play to cover an artificial spread. They play to win.
              ATS statistics determine overrated/underrated teams. Look at the teams who have great ATS records this year. Some of the best teams are the Packers, Browns, etc. - squads people underestimated. Teams with poor ATS records this year are the Ravens, Bengals, etc. - squads people overrate.
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              • #22
                Originally posted by Walter View Post
                ATS statistics determine overrated/underrated teams. Look at the teams who have great ATS records this year. Some of the best teams are the Packers, Browns, etc. - squads people underestimated. Teams with poor ATS records this year are the Ravens, Bengals, etc. - squads people overrate.
                Yeah, ATS basically just gives an idea of who is overrated and underrated.....by the oddsmaker. The Patriots don't stop and say "Wait guys, we're winning by 17 with a minute left to go.......we need to go all out to score another touchdown to cover an artifical spread."

                If they don't do this though, they'll be penalized when you look at ATS statistics. ATS stats are flawed.

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                • #23
                  Yeah, I agree with what you're saying, but I think that when a team doesn't cover the number, it means it doesn't produce as well as expected.

                  Still, a 3-5 SU number is more horrifying for teams with byes.
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