I recently read an article from Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/200...fl-draft/5082/). It argues that one very good indicator of pro success for college QBs drafted in rounds 1-2 is whether or not they (1) started lots of games in college, and (2) have a high sustained completion percentage in college. Here is the key paragraph:
"Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler."
I took a quick look at stats on Yahoo for the three likely contenders in 2008: Ryan, Woodson, Brohm. Here are the stats: Ryan (40 games, 59.7%), Woodson 44 games, 61.5%), Brohm (44 games, 66.1%). All look pretty good (although I suspect the Yahoo list of "games" reflects games played and not games started, so it might be inflated).
What do you think? No doubt these guys will be drafted high, but what do you think of pro success?
"Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler."
I took a quick look at stats on Yahoo for the three likely contenders in 2008: Ryan, Woodson, Brohm. Here are the stats: Ryan (40 games, 59.7%), Woodson 44 games, 61.5%), Brohm (44 games, 66.1%). All look pretty good (although I suspect the Yahoo list of "games" reflects games played and not games started, so it might be inflated).
What do you think? No doubt these guys will be drafted high, but what do you think of pro success?
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