Matt McGuire's Blog Updated - 1/17

[Walter]

http://walterfootball.com/mattblog.php

Good read about declaring underclassmen.

[Matt McGuire]

lol what a funny comment about Bobby Reid....how obvious is it that Walter wrote that

EDIT: Forgot the drugs comment in the opening paragraph was mine, but Walter's joke in the picture caption is the icing on the cake Bobby Reid's mama baked.

[Walter]

LOL I was hoping you'd get a kick out of that

[Craig Smith]

I agree with alot of this. To help back you up on why some people made the right choices and others didn't from a financial standpoint lets look at the last two drafts.

Starting with Laurenitis at Linebacker.A strong senior season and he may jump to the top 5. If your already a virtual lock for the top 10 as a Linebacker, then whats the point? Especially since it is rare for a Linebacker to go in the top 5 (in the past 8 years only A.J. Hawk and LeVar Arrington have gone in the top 5). It can't possibly be financial. Lets get in Matt's world famous time machine and look only 2 years back.

A.J. Hawk is drafted by Green Bay at #5 overall. 4 Picks later, at #9 Detroit Lions draft Ernie Sims. Now lets look at their contracts. Were going to leave out player performance incentives because, well that could very well vary from team to team for completing the same task and has little relation to player ability.

A.J. Hawk signed a 6 year deal with an overall base value of 26 mil. 17.8 mil. of that contract is guarenteed. Over the course of 6 years Hawk will average 4.3 mil a season.

Ernie Sims signed a 5 year deal worth 15.5 million. 12.4 Million of that contract is guarenteed. So over the course of those 5 years, Sims will average 3.1 million.

First things first, Laurenitis, is risking injury and millions of dollars for an additional 1.2 mil a year. Not a reasonable decision in my opinion. By the way, had Sims signed a 6 year deal based on the same contract structure, he would have been looking at 6 years, 21.6 mil, 19 mil guarenteed (yes more guarenteed the Hawk).

To discuss Michael Oher's case and why financially it makes sense for him to wait until 09 and be a potential top 5 guy, compared to this year where he would have been in the bottom half of the first round, we look at last years first round picks Joe Thomas (#3 overall) and Joe Staley (#28 overall).

Joe Thomas signed a 5 year deal worth 33.5 mil. 23 mil. of it is guarenteed. So Joe Thomas averages about 6.7 mil a season for the next 5 years.

Joe Staley signed a 5 year deal worth 7.9 million, with 5.5 mil guarenteed (10.7 mil max including incentives). Joe Staley averages a puny 1.6 mil a season for the next 5 years.

So as you can see, Oher will likely make more than double the money in guarentees being a top 5 pick, then he would over the entire course (in this case, including incentives) of his contract had he come out this year.

[Vbsiena]

lol puny and 1.6 million dollars rarely should go in the same sentence.

[Matt McGuire]

Hm, good research Craig. All about GUARANTEED money.

[jimmyp]

lol puny and 1.6 million dollars rarely should go in the same sentence.

Except in, "The other day I bought a puny diamond for 1.6 million dollars."

[49ersfan]

I could see his mom givin' him some crack, that's the only way he can be that dumb, since he's not named after an old video game.