"We'll just draft a QB in the second round"

[Descendency]

I'm stealing this idea from someone else I saw write it, but I thought it was worth a read for fans without a franchise QB.

Every year fans say that because they don't want their team taking a QB in round 1 and passing on some elite player at a far less important position. The infamous "Suh to the Rams" makes me laugh so hard now or Jason Smith to the Lions or Jake Long to the Rams instead of Matt Ryan. . . ok that's not quite fair to the Dolphins, they got their franchise QB in round 2. . .

Let's call a "franchise QB" a player who at least the starter for 7+ years and makes at least 2 Pro-bowls (obviously flawed, but let's go with it).

Of the 24 QBs drafted, how many "franchise QB"s would have been picked from 33 to 64 (second round) in the last 20 years?

Brett Favre

You might be tempted to argue that some are still playing today... and could still become a franchise QB...

Charlie Batch? old.
Chad Henne... just ask Dolphins fans about him.
Jimmy Clausen? No. If Ryan Leaf went in the second round, he would be Jimmy Clausen.
Kellen Clemens... hahah.
Tarvaris Jackson? Is that before or after he cries on the sideline about breaking a fingernail?
Todd Collins... is old.
Brian Brohm? He's on the bills, I confused him with Matt Flynn somehow...
Kevin Kolb... ehhhhhhh... We'll see.
Drew Staton? He's a Lions QB. That should tell you all you need to know.

Good luck. . .

[Drodan]

You draft a Quarterback in the first. Period. No discussion about it. If you can't get one in the first. You strengthen your team and get a stop gap until you can get one. You find backup QBs in the other rounds.

[whatdoyouwant711]

There's also Drew Brees. I assume he's not listed because he was technically the 32nd pick, but he was a 2nd rounder.

There have certainly been some franchise quarterbacks acquired in rounds 3-7 or signed as an UDFA in the last 20 years. That being said, most franchise quarterbacks are acquired in the first half of the first round.

[Dustin]

Very broadly I agree with you, but I think this year is unique in that 1) there are very few elite QB prospects worth going in the first round, and 2) there are a number of QBs with high 2nd round grades that are likely to be in high demand in the late first/early second.
I think the argument is different this year to any other because teams that need a QB (Carolina, Cincinnati, San Fran, Tennessee, Washington, etc) may not think that any QB is worth a top ten selection, thus they will default to 2nd round QBs - many of which are believed to be 'safer' than those with first round grades, ie: Kaepernick, Locker, Mallett, Ponder, etc.
I expect to see a lot of trading up into the end of the first round or the very top of the 2nd for these guys.

[Sitisfit]

If you believe a guy is a franchise QB you draft him with the first pick that you have, if not you wait till the later rounds for a guy that could eventually be one

[packman_jon]

Isn't Brohm playing for Buffalo now? Flynn and Harrell are the backups to Rodgers now

[tinysauce]

Add Drew Brees and Matt Schaub to the list.

They are the exception though.

[Descendency]

Add Drew Brees and Matt Schaub to the list.

They are the exception though.

Schaub was pick 90. Obviously some franchise QBs can be found late in the draft or in free agency, but most of these guys become something because they have tools that were mis-scouted and they now have a chip on their shoulder. There is a Tom Brady story that demonstrates exactly this.

edit: even if you go from pick 29 (to include late firsts and years with fewer than 32 teams) to 64 (which will include some early 3rd), these are the best QBs drafted in those spots:

1. Brett Favre
2. Drew Brees
--- huge gap ---
3. Jake Plummer - career QBR 74.6
4. Kordell Stewart - career QBR 70
5. Who cares?

Isn't Brohm playing for Buffalo now? Flynn and Harrell are the backups to Rodgers now

Oh. Even better. He's a lacky on the Bills.

[Jwarr37]

Definetley agree with this, never understood teams that drafted a QB in the 2nd round. If you don't think he's good enough to be your first round pick, why would you take him with the 2nd round pick? If you aren't sold that this guy is your franchise guy, don't take him in the 2nd round, a round with high value.

It's no coincidence that only 3 of the 32 starting QBs in the NFL are 2nd rounders (not including Kolb), and in each case the team that drafted them didn't exactly believe in them. (Rivers was drafted/traded for when Brees was still QB, and everyone knows the Dolphins and Panthers aren't exactly 100% behind their QBs.)

[wraith36444]

I'm stealing this idea from someone else I saw write it, but I thought it was worth a read for fans without a franchise QB.

Every year fans say that because they don't want their team taking a QB in round 1 and passing on some elite player at a far less important position. The infamous "Suh to the Rams" makes me laugh so hard now or Jason Smith to the Lions or Jake Long to the Rams instead of Matt Ryan. . . ok that's not quite fair to the Dolphins, they got their franchise QB in round 2. . .

Let's call a "franchise QB" a player who at least the starter for 7+ years and makes at least 2 Pro-bowls (obviously flawed, but let's go with it).

Of the 24 QBs drafted, how many "franchise QB"s would have been picked from 33 to 64 (second round) in the last 20 years?

Brett Favre

You might be tempted to argue that some are still playing today... and could still become a franchise QB...

Charlie Batch? old.
Chad Henne... just ask Dolphins fans about him.
Jimmy Clausen? No. If Ryan Leaf went in the second round, he would be Jimmy Clausen.
Kellen Clemens... hahah.
Tarvaris Jackson? Is that before or after he cries on the sideline about breaking a fingernail?
Todd Collins... is old.
Brian Brohm? Only if he's traded - or he's Aaron Rodgers ball boy for the next 15 years (if they keep him)
Kevin Kolb... ehhhhhhh... We'll see.
Drew Staton? He's a Lions QB. That should tell you all you need to know.

Good luck. . .

In all fairness to Miami, most people did not think Ryan was going to be a good pro and it is not as if Long has been bad or anything.

[wraith36444]

Definetley agree with this, never understood teams that drafted a QB in the 2nd round. If you don't think he's good enough to be your first round pick, why would you take him with the 2nd round pick? If you aren't sold that this guy is your franchise guy, don't take him in the 2nd round, a round with high value.

It's no coincidence that only 3 of the 32 starting QBs in the NFL are 2nd rounders (not including Kevin Kolb, who could probably start for about 5-8 teams in the NFL right now). It usually means their team wasn't sold on him becoming a franchise QB. (Brees and Schaub were released/traded with the teams they were drafted by, and everyone and their mother knows Henne has fallen out of favor with the team.)

We could have another Henne referendum if everyone wants

[tinysauce]

Schaub was pick 90.

And? The idea of not picking in the first round is to wait until later to draft your franchise QB. We can all count, so we all know that the third round comes after the first, so it follows the same basic idea of waiting until after the first round.

I'm assuming that limiting the filter to second-round QB's is just to shorten your list of backups and failures, which makes sense.

Don't think I disagree with you. More often a franchise QB is found in the first round. Just adding to the list of those taken after the first.

[Descendency]

In all fairness to Miami, most people did not think Ryan was going to be a good pro and it is not as if Long has been bad or anything.

Yeah, I was among the group that didn't think Ryan should go top 10.

And? The idea of not picking in the first round is to wait until later to draft your franchise QB. We can all count, so we all know that the third round comes after the first, so it follows the same basic idea of waiting until after the first round.

I'm assuming that limiting the filter to second-round QB's is just to shorten your list of backups and failures, which makes sense.

Don't think I disagree with you. More often a franchise QB is found in the first round. Just adding to the list of those taken after the first.

I'm excluding players taken later than the 2nd because I am trying to show that elite QBs don't fall. When a QB is projected to be a first rounder they either go in the first round or they have major flaws (sometimes hidden). After the second round, I would say it's almost purely "luck" (and not Andrew Luck... because he's going #1 overall)

[WokDontRun]

So why did Brady fall so far? Did Hoodie know what he was gettting when he took him in the 6th?

[tinysauce]

I'm excluding players taken later than the 2nd because I am trying to show that elite QBs don't fall.

Point taken. Someone else had mentioned Brees between when I read the first post and when I responded so I guess mine doesn't really fit haha.