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  • NFL Week 2 Picks Are Up

    http://walterfootball.com/picks.php
    2016 NFL Mock Draft

    Sales Tips, Sales Techniques, Sales Planning and Sales Blogs to Increase Sales Commissions

  • #2
    Spread N Freq.
    0 434 0.00%
    1 1,344 2.08%
    2 1,667 1.62%
    3 1,788 9.51%
    4 1,855 2.75%
    5 1,892 1.80%
    6 1,278 3.52%
    7 1,158 6.13%
    8 1,089 1.93%
    9 833 0.84%
    10 546 5.13%
    11 426 1.88%
    12 355 0.85%
    13 229 0.87%
    14 181 6.63%
    15 136 1.47%
    16 89 3.37%
    17 46 8.70%
    18 30 3.33%


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Methodology: http://winningpoints.com/index.html
    All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from NFL Picks, College Football Picks, Winning Points) from the 1993/4 season through week 4 of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (3,382 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
    The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
    This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Not suprisingly, the top percentages of pushes come from lines of 3, 7 or some combination of the two. So the only profitable 1/2 pt middle using dime lines come from a push of 3 (ie. 3 & 2.5 or 3 & 3.5).

    I'd also like to see the numbers for college games since the lines seem to be less consistent from book to book and also more volatile.

    Comment


    • #3
      NFL Spread/ML Equivalency Charts

      NFL Spread/ML Equivalency Charts


      At Even Odds: Spread Prob. ML
      0 EV 50.00% ±100.0
      0½ EV 50.05% ±100.2
      1 EV 51.08% ±104.4
      1½ EV 52.08% ±108.7
      2 EV 53.02% ±112.9
      2½ EV 53.86% ±116.7
      3 EV 58.78% ±142.6
      3½ EV 62.22% ±164.7
      4 EV 63.84% ±176.5
      4½ EV 64.75% ±183.7
      5 EV 65.94% ±193.6
      5½ EV 66.56% ±199.0
      6 EV 68.53% ±217.8
      6½ EV 69.44% ±227.2
      7 EV 73.20% ±273.1
      7½ EV 74.58% ±293.3
      8 EV 75.86% ±314.3
      8½ EV 76.27% ±321.4
      9 EV 77.05% ±335.7
      9½ EV 77.28% ±340.1
      10 EV 80.64% ±416.6
      10½ EV 81.45% ±439.0
      11 EV 83.28% ±498.2
      11½ EV 83.65% ±511.7
      12 EV 84.64% ±551.1
      12½ EV 84.82% ±558.8
      13 EV 86.83% ±659.1
      13½ EV 87.13% ±677.1
      14 EV 90.34% ±934.9
      14½ EV 90.68% ±972.9
      15 EV 91.86% ±1128.0
      15½ EV 91.96% ±1144.0
      16 EV 93.63% ±1468.9
      16½ EV 93.74% ±1497.3
      17 EV 96.61% ±2850.2
      17½ EV 96.71% ±2940.5
      ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      At -110: Spread Prob. Fave ML Dog ML
      PK -110 50.00% -110.0 -110.0
      0½ -110 50.05% -110.2 -109.8
      1 -110 51.08% -115.1 -105.1
      1½ -110 52.08% -120.1 -100.8
      2 -110 53.02% -125.0 +103.2
      2½ -110 53.86% -129.5 +106.9
      3 -110 58.78% -160.2 +131.5
      3½ -110 62.22% -187.2 +152.7
      4 -110 63.84% -201.9 +163.9
      4½ -110 64.75% -210.9 +170.8
      5 -110 65.94% -223.4 +180.3
      5½ -110 66.56% -230.3 +185.4
      6 -110 68.53% -254.5 +203.3
      6½ -110 69.44% -266.9 +212.3
      7 -110 73.20% -311.0 +260.9
      7½ -110 74.58% -357.2 +275.4
      8 -110 75.86% -387.2 +295.4
      8½ -110 76.27% -397.5 +302.2
      9 -110 77.05% -418.5 +315.9
      9½ -110 77.28% -425.2 +320.1
      10 -110 80.64% -544.4 +393.1
      10½ -110 81.45% -581.5 +414.5
      11 -110 83.28% -684.2 +471.0
      11½ -110 83.65% -708.7 +483.9
      12 -110 84.64% -782.8 +521.5
      12½ -110 84.82% -797.7 +528.9
      13 -110 86.83% -1006.4 +624.6
      13½ -110 87.13% -1046.9 +641.8
      14 -110 90.34% -1765.2 +887.8
      14½ -110 90.68% -1899.1 +924.2
      15 -110 91.86% -2553.3 +1072.2
      15½ -110 91.96% -2632.6 +1087.4
      16 -110 93.63% -5121.0 +1397.6
      16½ -110 93.74% -5466.1 +1424.7
      17 -110 96.61%
      17½ -110 96.71%

      Comment


      • #4
        at Baltimore NL 11 33 1/2 NY Jets

        still like Balt to win but 11 points you don't know what the Rookie will do with th

        Comment


        • #5
          That's why the Ravens are just a 1-unit play for me.
          2016 NFL Mock Draft

          Sales Tips, Sales Techniques, Sales Planning and Sales Blogs to Increase Sales Commissions

          Comment


          • #6
            Here are my picks.

            Jaguars over Falcons
            Steelers over Bills
            Browns over Bengals (upset pick!)
            Packers over Giants
            Panthers over Texans
            Colts over Titans
            Saints over Buccaneers
            49ers over Rams
            Cowboys over Dolphins
            Lions over Vikings
            Seahawks over Cardinals
            Bears over Chiefs
            Ravens over Jets
            Broncos over Raiders
            Patriots over Chargers
            Eagles over Redskins

            Last week I was 11-5.
            Carolina Panther's GM

            1. #17 - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
            2. #37 - Ali Highsmith, OLB, LSU
            2. #43 - Jonathan Hefney, FS, Tennessee
            3. #74 - John David Booty, QB, USC
            3. #82 - Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
            4. #107 - Matt Forte, RB, Tulane

            Comment


            • #7
              Mark, you should pick the games against the spread
              2016 NFL Mock Draft

              Sales Tips, Sales Techniques, Sales Planning and Sales Blogs to Increase Sales Commissions

              Comment


              • #8
                I hope The Browns don't pull the upset. It seems almost to good to be true and some sort of trap bet but I'm buying 1/2 pt and betting big on the Bengals -6.5
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                Live 4 The Story

                Comment


                • #9
                  I think Bengals win big as well.
                  2016 NFL Mock Draft

                  Sales Tips, Sales Techniques, Sales Planning and Sales Blogs to Increase Sales Commissions

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Changing some of my picks.

                    Bengals over Browns
                    Vikings over Lions
                    Carolina Panther's GM

                    1. #17 - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
                    2. #37 - Ali Highsmith, OLB, LSU
                    2. #43 - Jonathan Hefney, FS, Tennessee
                    3. #74 - John David Booty, QB, USC
                    3. #82 - Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
                    4. #107 - Matt Forte, RB, Tulane

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      OUCH on your pick in teh cinc game high score hope you did that one and didn't pick cinc to win.

                      so sorry

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        LOL I think everyone was dead wrong about the Browns.

                        Where the hell did Derek Anderson come from?
                        2016 NFL Mock Draft

                        Sales Tips, Sales Techniques, Sales Planning and Sales Blogs to Increase Sales Commissions

                        Comment

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