NFL Week 2 Picks Are Up

[Walter]

http://walterfootball.com/picks.php

[swifty222]

Spread N Freq.
0 434 0.00%
1 1,344 2.08%
2 1,667 1.62%
3 1,788 9.51%
4 1,855 2.75%
5 1,892 1.80%
6 1,278 3.52%
7 1,158 6.13%
8 1,089 1.93%
9 833 0.84%
10 546 5.13%
11 426 1.88%
12 355 0.85%
13 229 0.87%
14 181 6.63%
15 136 1.47%
16 89 3.37%
17 46 8.70%
18 30 3.33%


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Methodology: http://winningpoints.com/index.html
All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from NFL Picks, College Football Picks, Winning Points) from the 1993/4 season through week 4 of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (3,382 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

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Not suprisingly, the top percentages of pushes come from lines of 3, 7 or some combination of the two. So the only profitable 1/2 pt middle using dime lines come from a push of 3 (ie. 3 & 2.5 or 3 & 3.5).

I'd also like to see the numbers for college games since the lines seem to be less consistent from book to book and also more volatile.

[swifty222]

NFL Spread/ML Equivalency Charts

NFL Spread/ML Equivalency Charts


At Even Odds: Spread Prob. ML
0 EV 50.00% ±100.0
0½ EV 50.05% ±100.2
1 EV 51.08% ±104.4
1½ EV 52.08% ±108.7
2 EV 53.02% ±112.9
2½ EV 53.86% ±116.7
3 EV 58.78% ±142.6
3½ EV 62.22% ±164.7
4 EV 63.84% ±176.5
4½ EV 64.75% ±183.7
5 EV 65.94% ±193.6
5½ EV 66.56% ±199.0
6 EV 68.53% ±217.8
6½ EV 69.44% ±227.2
7 EV 73.20% ±273.1
7½ EV 74.58% ±293.3
8 EV 75.86% ±314.3
8½ EV 76.27% ±321.4
9 EV 77.05% ±335.7
9½ EV 77.28% ±340.1
10 EV 80.64% ±416.6
10½ EV 81.45% ±439.0
11 EV 83.28% ±498.2
11½ EV 83.65% ±511.7
12 EV 84.64% ±551.1
12½ EV 84.82% ±558.8
13 EV 86.83% ±659.1
13½ EV 87.13% ±677.1
14 EV 90.34% ±934.9
14½ EV 90.68% ±972.9
15 EV 91.86% ±1128.0
15½ EV 91.96% ±1144.0
16 EV 93.63% ±1468.9
16½ EV 93.74% ±1497.3
17 EV 96.61% ±2850.2
17½ EV 96.71% ±2940.5
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At -110: Spread Prob. Fave ML Dog ML
PK -110 50.00% -110.0 -110.0
0½ -110 50.05% -110.2 -109.8
1 -110 51.08% -115.1 -105.1
1½ -110 52.08% -120.1 -100.8
2 -110 53.02% -125.0 +103.2
2½ -110 53.86% -129.5 +106.9
3 -110 58.78% -160.2 +131.5
3½ -110 62.22% -187.2 +152.7
4 -110 63.84% -201.9 +163.9
4½ -110 64.75% -210.9 +170.8
5 -110 65.94% -223.4 +180.3
5½ -110 66.56% -230.3 +185.4
6 -110 68.53% -254.5 +203.3
6½ -110 69.44% -266.9 +212.3
7 -110 73.20% -311.0 +260.9
7½ -110 74.58% -357.2 +275.4
8 -110 75.86% -387.2 +295.4
8½ -110 76.27% -397.5 +302.2
9 -110 77.05% -418.5 +315.9
9½ -110 77.28% -425.2 +320.1
10 -110 80.64% -544.4 +393.1
10½ -110 81.45% -581.5 +414.5
11 -110 83.28% -684.2 +471.0
11½ -110 83.65% -708.7 +483.9
12 -110 84.64% -782.8 +521.5
12½ -110 84.82% -797.7 +528.9
13 -110 86.83% -1006.4 +624.6
13½ -110 87.13% -1046.9 +641.8
14 -110 90.34% -1765.2 +887.8
14½ -110 90.68% -1899.1 +924.2
15 -110 91.86% -2553.3 +1072.2
15½ -110 91.96% -2632.6 +1087.4
16 -110 93.63% -5121.0 +1397.6
16½ -110 93.74% -5466.1 +1424.7
17 -110 96.61%
17½ -110 96.71%

[swifty222]

at Baltimore NL 11 33 1/2 NY Jets

still like Balt to win but 11 points you don't know what the Rookie will do with th

[Walter]

That's why the Ravens are just a 1-unit play for me.

[Mark]

Here are my picks.

Jaguars over Falcons
Steelers over Bills
Browns over Bengals (upset pick!)
Packers over Giants
Panthers over Texans
Colts over Titans
Saints over Buccaneers
49ers over Rams
Cowboys over Dolphins
Lions over Vikings
Seahawks over Cardinals
Bears over Chiefs
Ravens over Jets
Broncos over Raiders
Patriots over Chargers
Eagles over Redskins

Last week I was 11-5.

[Walter]

Mark, you should pick the games against the spread

[Adam Mac]

I hope The Browns don't pull the upset. It seems almost to good to be true and some sort of trap bet but I'm buying 1/2 pt and betting big on the Bengals -6.5

[Walter]

I think Bengals win big as well.

[Mark]

Changing some of my picks.

Bengals over Browns
Vikings over Lions

[swifty222]

OUCH on your pick in teh cinc game high score hope you did that one and didn't pick cinc to win.

so sorry

[Walter]

LOL I think everyone was dead wrong about the Browns.

Where the hell did Derek Anderson come from?