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My Huge UK vs. UL Preview

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  • My Huge UK vs. UL Preview

    Game can be seen on ESPN Classic, Saturday, at 7:30 ET. Game is in Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington.

    This is arguably the biggest game in the history of the state of Kentucky. Buc Sappy is here to bring the best analysis on the game. Every aspect will be looked at, including statistical predictions, players of the game, matchups, what happens during the game (based on X team winning), and what happens to the winning/losing teams after this game depending on the outcome.

    Part I:
    UL Offense vs. UK defense
    Statistical Predictions
    Individual Matchup to Watch
    UL Game Ball
    UL's Psychological edge
    What happens in the game if UL Win
    What happens to UL the rest of the season if they win this game

    Louisville Offense
    You just can't deny that Louisville has a great offense. With All-American Brian Brohm at the help and receiver such as Mario Urrutia and Harry Douglas to throw to, it is tough to cover this team. The part I want to talk about though, is UL's Offensive Line, which has Rich Brooks scared. They are big. They are strong. They are athletic, and they don't make mistakes. It is going to be tough for Kentucky to stop this running game with the threat of Brian Brohm under center.

    Kentucky Defense
    It's hard to deny the remarkable improvement in talent on Kentucky's defense. You look around and every position is fast on the defense. They are athletic. They can make plays. This defense has confidence, and they have leadership. This might be the best defense Louisville will face on its regular season schedule. Murray State and Middle Tennessee State's defenses just aren't on the same level of Kentucky's defense. I like Kentucky's defense versus the pass moreso than versus the run. Can they stop Brian Brohm? I don't know. Lets take a look at how these teams matchup.

    Louisville's pass protection vs. Kentucky's pass rush
    Edge: Even
    Louisville is big up front, but they don't have nearly as much bulk as they used to. UL's OL is good, but it isn't as good as the ones Kentucky has seen the past few years. I think Kentucky can get to Brohm, I see potential there. Brohm isn't Edelman, he isn't a mobile Quarterback and he isn't tough to bring down. UK is really athletic at DT. I think they will get in Brohm's face. But it won't happen consistently (which never really happens in any game...getting to the QB is just hard). For the most part, Brohm will have time. Steve Brown hasn't blitzed much vs. EKU or Kent State. I don't expect this to change, but I would like to see Brown suprise Brohm every once in a while with a zone blitz. Right now it is even imo. UK's DL has upside.

    Louisville's passing attack vs. Kentucky's pass coverage
    Edge: Louisville
    This one is easy. Louisville has such a good offensive scheme that is designed for the receivers to be wide open. I really like UK's defensive backfield, but I don't know if they will be able to cover Urrutia and Douglas when Brohm has time. Like Kentucky's pass rush, their coverage has been much better than in the past. They haven't given up any big plays through the air really to EKU or Kent State...but come on. EKU and Kent State? Brohm has very good arm strength, and I expect a big game from him. Kentucky's LBers can't be missing assignments in this game, and Micah Johnson needs to play big.

    Louisville's running game vs. Kentucky's Front 7
    Edge: Louisville
    Kentucky hasn't been able to stop the run. Ever. Yes, they did vs. Kent State in the 2nd half, but Steve Brown isn't ever going to put 8 in the box against the Cardinals. I love what I am seeing out of Micah Johnson. He is everywhere on the field. I expect Woodyard to play much better in this game than in the first two...I think he is more healthier. That said, lets talk about UL's offensive line for a second. They are big, they are mean, and they are very well coached. I like Stripling and Allen, and I just don't know if the defensive line for Kentucky can plug the holes.

    Statistical Predictions
    Brian Brohm: 16-31, 227 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
    Anthony Allen: 18 CAR, 125 yards, 2 TDs, 1 FUM
    George Stripling: 4 CAR, 10 yards, 1 TD
    Mario Urruita: 6 REC, 92 yards, 1 TD
    Harry Douglas, 6 REC, 83 yards, 1 TD
    Gary Barnidge, 2 REC, 24 yards

    Wesley Woodyard: 16 tackles
    Micah Johnson: 11 tackles, 1 FF
    Jeremy Jarmon: 1.5 sacks
    Corey Peters: 1 sack
    Ventrell Jenkins: 1 sack
    Roger Williams: 1 INT

    Individual Matchup to Watch:
    Louisville WR Harry Douglas vs. Kentucky CB Trevard Lindley

    Best WR in the Big East going up against the best sophomore CB in the SEC. Trevard Lindley is really coming into his own, he is a very fast, athletic, well coached player that excels in man-man coverage. I am not sure if Steve Brown plans going Cover 2 against Louisville or not, we shall see, but I do think this is the matchup to watch because of Lindley's speed vs. Douglas' speed. Douglas is a Day One NFL Draft pick. He is not a product of the system, he is fast, explosive, and has good hands. Lindley is going to make Douglas earns every catch he gets. At the end of the day, Douglas will put up big numbers in Louisville's offense. But that doesn't mean he wins this matchup. If Lindley can get in Douglas head and get a few pass breakups I think that can rattle Brohm's confidence of throwing to Douglas if Lindley almost INTs a pass. Lindley will have help, Calvin Harrison is a ballhawk of a free safety and Roger Williams is showed his ability last year of making big plays when it counts.

    UL Game Ball:
    If UL wins this game, then this game ball goes to Brian Brohm. He is going to have to show us he can play under pressure in a hostile environment. It might not be pretty for Brohm, but "A win is a win is a win" (Rich Brooks once said) and if UL wins Brohm is awarded BucSappy's game ball for keeping his team in the national title hunt.

    UL's Psychological edge:
    This team has flat out dominated Kentucky last year. They are coming off a big Orange Bowl victory the season before, and the offense is clicking. Everyone is talking about Louisville in this game. Brian Brohm this. Harry Douglas that. This team has confidence. They believe they can win this game because they have done it before. The UL defense feels like they haven't played to their potential yet and they feel like they will come out with a different demanor in Commonwealth.

    I will say who imo has the psychological edge in Part II.

    What happens in the game if UL wins:
    It won't be easy. Let me repeat. It won't be easy. Kentucky will put up points, and a lot of them. But Louisville makes more stops against Kentucky's offense than Kentucky's defense against Louisville's offense. Harry Douglas and Brian Brohm connect on a few really big passing plays and it just swings the momentum in Commonwealth Stadium. Anthony Allen will have a great day rushing. Brian Brohm will plenty of time in the pocket for 85% of the throws he makes. Louisvlle doesn't make turnovers on offense. They execute in the red zone. Andre' Woodson has a good game, but he holds onto the ball too long in the pocket and takes too many sacks. Woodosn and Burton will connect on a big pass play, like Brohm-Douglas. Rafael Little will have a good game, but not a great game. The UK offense makes one or two costly fumbles and UL converts those into points.

    What happens to UL the rest of the season if they win this game:

    Louisville goes undefeated for the next seven games. I think they beat WVU in WV. They lose though on the road at South Florida and their BCS Title hopes are over. They then beat Rutgers at home. Louisville plays in the Sugar Bowl
    2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

    Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

  • #2
    Walter, for some reason it isn't letting me edit my post. I posted this on a few other sites, therfore the "BucSappy"
    2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

    Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.


    • #3
      It was taking me a while to edit as well, probably because it's so big.

      Great write-up

      Who wins?
      2016 NFL Mock Draft

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      • #4
        Wait for Part II later today.
        2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

        Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.


        • #5
          Nice, can't wait.
          2016 NFL Mock Draft

          Sales Tips, Sales Techniques, Sales Planning and Sales Blogs to Increase Sales Commissions