Silly Draft Value Question

[jimmyp]

Ok forum-lurking draft gurus. Hypothetical situation, let's say you had prospects in every position who were each "elite" prospects for their position. Different pozzies seem to be drafted differently. Here's a tentative list

Rung 1 - Top 5
QB
RB
T
DE

Rung 2 - Top 10
DT
LB
CB
WR

Rung 3 - 1st round
S
TE

Rung 4 - 2nd/3rd round
G/C

Rung 5 - 4th/5th round
K
ST

Rung 6 - 6th/7th round
P

Is this a fair observation or not?

[Walter]

Well, Sean Taylor was drafted in the Top 10, I guess there are exceptions.

[jimmyp]

So was LaRon Landry. Dorsey and Ellis might both go top 5 this year. In general though I am looking for a pattern. It's one thing to have an elite player on your team, but I think most teams would rather an elite QB than and elite FS?

[bills_red]

Huff and D.Whit were top 10 at S

[jimmyp]

Ok, I understand that ther are exceptions but instead of just giving me these, could you try restructuring my ladder?

[Matt McGuire]

I see what you are saying but you can't concretly do this. Some drafts are weaker/stronge at some positions than others and it affects how teams draft.

Like this year, a lot of people have given the Bills Malcolm Kelly. I basically went on the Bills message board and converted 75% of the users into believeing that Phillip Merling will likely be the BPA at #11 and it is best to pass on all the top WRs in this draft and cash in your chips on a very deep WR class rather than draft one in the first round, much less #11.

I think what you are getting at is what positions are the most valuable...so how can you answer this? What positions present the most rarity in terms of elite talent in the NFL? I'd go with this list:

1. Left Tackle
2. Right Defensive End
3. Defensive Tackle
4. Cornerback
5. Weakside Linebacker (Tampa 2 teams only)
6. Hybid Linebacker (3-4 teams only)
7. Quarterback
8. Guard
9. Safety
10. Wide Receiver

Probably suprising list to most of you but just look at how many teams have a capable starting quarterback or a franchise guy. I think guard is a very underrated position and a position that is getting paid more and more as every year goes on...just not a lot of elite talent here as opposed to runningback or middle linebacker.

Just my opinion...this will change as even more teams get more talented QBs, WRs, and RBs because this is a very talented draft at those positions.

[jimmyp]

Ok Matt, what you're doing is correct as each team runs different offenses and defenses, e.g. some players are going to be valuable 3-4 DEs but to big and slow to play in a 4-3 scheme. Since I was bored today I looked at the last 8 drafts and noted the highest draft player for each position. What I've included here are 2 numbers, the first is the 8 year draft average for that position and the second is the best 5 of 8, the rationale being to exclude the non-elite (not every position has an elite player every year).

8 Year Draft Ave 5/8 Draft Ave
QB 3.375 1
T 6.375 3.2
DE 7.125 2.4
WR 7.5 2.8
DT 8.875 5.8
CB 10.125 6.2
RB 10.5 4.2
OLB 12.75 7.8
S 14.875 8.4
TE 19.5 12.8
MLB 24.125 16.8
G/C 25.25 20.2
K 103.625 65.8
P 126.625 103.8

I know to make this statistically relevant I should probably go back another decade, but I'm too lazy. For me this highlights a number of things. Firstly, QB is the most overdrafted position. Seeing as only one guy plays the position (barring injury) all season it is nevertheless highly sought after. Secondly WR are most valued in the draft than RB. Why? Lastly, sorry Bills Red, but safeties are way down the list and are exactly where I hypothesised they would be (however my ranking of my rungs was a little low).

[Matt McGuire]

Great research jimmy. I think bills might have been clouded by last years amazing S class...happens after a draft like that.

Anyways I just think it is interesting how many busts people love to bring up at QB, especially ones that are unexplainable when they were prospects (Harrington, Carr). Playing QB isn't about thowing a 50 yard bomb. It is about not turning the ball over, timing, accuracy, and general precision.

I think we are going to see a big trend as teams get even better with draft theory on QB being more of a late first round/second round position.

[Matt McGuire]

To answer your question WR is a more valued position than RB I think because it is a much more difficult position to play. Also, while WR is getting there as far as extreme depth and talent in the NFL a lot of talented RBs has always been in the league so teams just don't need them. Add in runningbacks haven't seen a lot of elite talent pre-2005 and I think you have your answer.

[jimmyp]

I've long been a numbers kind of guy. Even in my current field, when I evaluate new medications on the market, I do it all by the numbers, number needed to treat (NNT), prevalence of side effects, efficacy over similar drugs/placebo etc. With the draft I am trying to think the same way.

I asked the question a month or so ago about what is the statistically safest position to draft and I guess this thread is an extension there. A number of the players I jotted down I was like "wow, you haven't played in ages" or "you suck!". Now I don't have statistics to back this up, but I think that G/C probably had the least busts (players who no longer start) out of any group.

With a #1 pick worth so much, I wonder about the wisdom of spending it on a QB unless he is John Elway reincarnate, the risk of him not working out is just so great that if I were a GM I would rather choose a safer guy.

[Matt McGuire]

Well the safest position easily in R1 is linebacker. Great track record.

[jimmyp]

Your probably right, and who doesn't want a great linebacking corps. Look what it has done for the Cowboys (and Pats, though they are old and slow).

[Matt McGuire]

Yeah but for some reason it is just really easy to draft for. I don't know why I guess it is just an easy position to scout for/project.

[candyman82]

Your probably right, and who doesn't want a great linebacking corps. Look what it has done for the Cowboys (and Pats, though they are old and slow).

They still did the job