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NCAA Basketball System Play

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  • NCAA Basketball System Play

    Walter you really need to scrap the two systems you seem to love. I don't know how in your right mind you could ever feel comfortable betting these unranked home "favorites" across the board without using any other discriminating factors to determine which ones are actually worth while. This system has failed miserable lately (including two games you didnt bet yesterday, Ohio St. and Pitt, and two others that lyou must have missed)...and is now like 3 - 10 or something like that since January. Even the games that cover, are definately not easy covers by any means (most recently Villanova covering by half a point barely on an offensive rebound with 3 secs left, and Baylor over K State by like 4 and a half). And tonight, despite K State only losing once at home this year, I like Texas to blow them out. Honestly if K State does indeed win, do you think it is going to be by very much more than 3 points? No, you are gonna have to sweat out the cover until the last second. My opinion is that the system works early in the year because there is a lot of variance in the rankings, and preseason perceptions don't always translate to in-season performance. But now, well into February, its clear that the rankings are much more acurate (tho I still think the rankings are BS) than they are in the beginning of the season.

    Also i know you like taking teams that are coming off a big win/cover against a much better team and hence will have nothing left/no focus for this game. This system is hitting at like 50%. Might as well flip a coin. I understand that teams tend to get overvalued after big wins etc. but there is no consistency to this in CBB, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. I think this system is great for the NBA but not for CBB.

    There are much better systems and ideologies out there, it just seems useless to bet against a team who you think is going to win just because its a system play. I think you can still apply the unranked home favs thing on a case by case basis, but not indiscriminantly...

    You were doing much better earlier in the year evaluating line movements and other factors? Why not continue...

    Let me end by saying I am one of your biggest fans, I love your page, and I know that you are primarily focused on mock drafts and stuff, but thats just my constructive two cents. Don't take anything personally, I just want you (and the people i referred to your page) to win!! You're still the best!

  • #2
    I almost edited a giant hug like guy on guy hug into your post.
    WalterFootball.com Forum Moderator




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    • #3
      Well i needed to add the last paragraph in so he doesn't think I'm a hater. I do like his page...and when i read it I was like "I hope i'm not being to harsh" hence the man crush paragraph at the end.

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      • #4
        fair enough.

        WalterFootball.com Forum Moderator




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        • #5
          It's not 50 percent - I'm up on the year. There was a stretch where it was 14-3. It won last year as well.
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          • #6
            Hate to say I told you so. Easy cover for TEXAS last night. AND if you include south carolina over vandy, oregon over wazzou, pitt over lville, and ohio st. over wisconson (all unranked home favs that u didn't pick, that lost this month)...the system is 3 - 11 since going 11 - 3...making it 50%. The system is leaking like a sieve...it's not good for the latter portion of the year...

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            • #7
              Lol do the traditional women at a racetrack strategy and bet the teams with the cooler sounding mascots.
              WalterFootball.com Forum Moderator




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              • #8
                systems are made for the long haul not a game by game basis so you need to look at the year as a total. I don't use the system myself but I'm sure there is some method behind Walter's madness haha. I perfer to go on gut instinct and if you follow the sport enough and the trends and betting patterns someone like me can usually do fairly well over time
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                • #9
                  I said myself that I was considered with KSU. I just need to be more selective.

                  The games you listed didn't fit the system. OSU wasn't favored over Wisky; they were 1.5-point dogs.

                  And I hope that when this streak goes on a tear again (it was awesome on Saturday and won me the week) you do the opposite of "I told you so" lol
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                  • #10
                    Boooo I suck
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                    • #11
                      Andddd another one bites the dust: (New Mexico last night).

                      LOL Masciaz I know systems are designated for the long run thats why i included that it was 3 - 11 over the last 14 AND 14 - 14 on the year (long run). Now after last night its 14 - 15 on the year (long run). And I don't know what books you were using by i'm not talking about opening lines walter...all those games i mentioned may have opened at PK or with the visitor favored but right before gametime all those home unranked that u didnt bet were indeed favored...maybe OSU was the one exception ( i ididn't check).

                      Not to mention the other point I made of fading the team who is relatively bad, coming off a big win or cover...that system is below .500 since u've been using it too. You used to do better as adam mentioned when you just used to pick games on instinct or line movements or a number of other fatcors...

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                      • #12
                        I never did that though for college basketball
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                        • #13
                          How can I be under .500 in both systems if I'm up for the year?
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                          • #14
                            Because you didn't use that system until halfway through the CBB year...you just proved my point: Your best came in the beginning of the year before you started relying on that system (the fading bad teams after big covers)sometime in mid jan or later...(i dunno exactly when because the link to your January picks doesnt work...

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                            • #15
                              what do u got in the works for picks today? U kind of abandoned hockey huh?

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