This season I want to begin evaluating defenses early. Below are some early thoughts and groupings. I'd like to hear insight from all the smart people here. Am I missing a potential sleeper with real potential? Do any of the ones I've listed at the top seem ready to fall? Are there major personnel changes I did not note?
Also, can someone tell me how much the rookie draft matters for defenses? Are rookies likely to be real contributors on defense, or do they usually need a couple years to adjust to the NFL? I have never watched defenses closely enough to know.
Any help appreciated. Thanks in advance.
Top defenses (seems like I can't miss with these Blue Chips):
NE: Top notch, but loss of CBs Samuel & Gay, and age of LBs and others is some cause for concern.
SD: Do they have any real weaknesses?
Dallas: Do they have any real weaknesses?
NYG: Line looked great in playoffs. Tons of sacks. Secondary a little erratic?
Pittsburgh: Seems like they're always in the top 10. Do they have any real weaknesses?
Seattle: Always solid at home, but questionable on the road.
Jacksonville: Always solid, like Pittsburgh. Do they have any real weaknesses?
Minnesota: Great defense in past few years. No reason to expect drop-off.
Semi-sleeper defenses (should do better than expected):
Tampa: Surprised me in 2007, but then I realized they have been great for several years. Age a concern?
Tennessee: A great D in 2007. Haynesworth's return should make them better.
Philadelphia: Always solid, but got better stats in 2007 than many realized. Asante Samuel should help secondary.
Chicago: Disappointed in 2007, because of injuries. A semi-bargain in 2008? Not much support expected from offense.
KC: Did better than expected in 2007 without much fanfare. Will they improve in 2008? Not much support expected from offense.
Baltimore: Disappointed in 2007. A semi-bargain in 2008? Not much support expected from offense. Age concerns? Will change in coaches cause disruption?
Indy: Always surprisingly solid, but many people forget the defense because of the offense. Strong offense helps defense by dictating game to opponents.
Mid-range defenses (no surprises here):
Green Bay: Did really well in 2007, but will do they have much room for improvement? Age of CBs a concern? Less support from offense without Favre?
Carolina: Always picked to do well, but seems to always be mediocre.
Denver: Expected to do well in 2007, but too weak on the line. Is new DC any good?
Washington: Seemed on-the-rise, but not quite there yet? Change in coaches a problem?
Arizona: Seemed to turn on at end of season, but not ready to gel yet?
Oakland: Strong secondary, but weak on the line. No reason to expect improvement.
True sleeper defenses ("I want to believe!" in the late rounds):
Miami: They were supposed to be great in 2007, but fell flat. Could Parcells work some magic, fix the problems, and make them a diamond in the rough?
Buffalo: Seemed to be stronger than expected in 2007. Injuries to LBs hurt. Will get more support from offense in 2008. Bad weather always helps stats. Poised to pop?
Houston: D-line is looking much stronger. Secondary still weak. Seems unlikely to be their time, but could it be possible?
SF: Many people picked them to do well in 2007, but they blew up. if the pieces are there, could they pop in 2008?
Detroit: Surprised many in 2007, but I am not convinced, mainly because their improvement came out of nowhere. Any reason to think they'll keep it up in 2008?
Defenses that show no real signs of life (stay away):
NYJ
Cincy
Cleveland
Atlanta
New Orleans
St Louis
Also, can someone tell me how much the rookie draft matters for defenses? Are rookies likely to be real contributors on defense, or do they usually need a couple years to adjust to the NFL? I have never watched defenses closely enough to know.
Any help appreciated. Thanks in advance.
Top defenses (seems like I can't miss with these Blue Chips):
NE: Top notch, but loss of CBs Samuel & Gay, and age of LBs and others is some cause for concern.
SD: Do they have any real weaknesses?
Dallas: Do they have any real weaknesses?
NYG: Line looked great in playoffs. Tons of sacks. Secondary a little erratic?
Pittsburgh: Seems like they're always in the top 10. Do they have any real weaknesses?
Seattle: Always solid at home, but questionable on the road.
Jacksonville: Always solid, like Pittsburgh. Do they have any real weaknesses?
Minnesota: Great defense in past few years. No reason to expect drop-off.
Semi-sleeper defenses (should do better than expected):
Tampa: Surprised me in 2007, but then I realized they have been great for several years. Age a concern?
Tennessee: A great D in 2007. Haynesworth's return should make them better.
Philadelphia: Always solid, but got better stats in 2007 than many realized. Asante Samuel should help secondary.
Chicago: Disappointed in 2007, because of injuries. A semi-bargain in 2008? Not much support expected from offense.
KC: Did better than expected in 2007 without much fanfare. Will they improve in 2008? Not much support expected from offense.
Baltimore: Disappointed in 2007. A semi-bargain in 2008? Not much support expected from offense. Age concerns? Will change in coaches cause disruption?
Indy: Always surprisingly solid, but many people forget the defense because of the offense. Strong offense helps defense by dictating game to opponents.
Mid-range defenses (no surprises here):
Green Bay: Did really well in 2007, but will do they have much room for improvement? Age of CBs a concern? Less support from offense without Favre?
Carolina: Always picked to do well, but seems to always be mediocre.
Denver: Expected to do well in 2007, but too weak on the line. Is new DC any good?
Washington: Seemed on-the-rise, but not quite there yet? Change in coaches a problem?
Arizona: Seemed to turn on at end of season, but not ready to gel yet?
Oakland: Strong secondary, but weak on the line. No reason to expect improvement.
True sleeper defenses ("I want to believe!" in the late rounds):
Miami: They were supposed to be great in 2007, but fell flat. Could Parcells work some magic, fix the problems, and make them a diamond in the rough?
Buffalo: Seemed to be stronger than expected in 2007. Injuries to LBs hurt. Will get more support from offense in 2008. Bad weather always helps stats. Poised to pop?
Houston: D-line is looking much stronger. Secondary still weak. Seems unlikely to be their time, but could it be possible?
SF: Many people picked them to do well in 2007, but they blew up. if the pieces are there, could they pop in 2008?
Detroit: Surprised many in 2007, but I am not convinced, mainly because their improvement came out of nowhere. Any reason to think they'll keep it up in 2008?
Defenses that show no real signs of life (stay away):
NYJ
Cincy
Cleveland
Atlanta
New Orleans
St Louis
Comment