Team defenses - Prospects for 2008?

[Lab]

This season I want to begin evaluating defenses early. Below are some early thoughts and groupings. I'd like to hear insight from all the smart people here. Am I missing a potential sleeper with real potential? Do any of the ones I've listed at the top seem ready to fall? Are there major personnel changes I did not note?

Also, can someone tell me how much the rookie draft matters for defenses? Are rookies likely to be real contributors on defense, or do they usually need a couple years to adjust to the NFL? I have never watched defenses closely enough to know.

Any help appreciated. Thanks in advance.

Top defenses (seems like I can't miss with these Blue Chips):
NE: Top notch, but loss of CBs Samuel & Gay, and age of LBs and others is some cause for concern.
SD: Do they have any real weaknesses?
Dallas: Do they have any real weaknesses?
NYG: Line looked great in playoffs. Tons of sacks. Secondary a little erratic?
Pittsburgh: Seems like they're always in the top 10. Do they have any real weaknesses?
Seattle: Always solid at home, but questionable on the road.
Jacksonville: Always solid, like Pittsburgh. Do they have any real weaknesses?
Minnesota: Great defense in past few years. No reason to expect drop-off.

Semi-sleeper defenses (should do better than expected):
Tampa: Surprised me in 2007, but then I realized they have been great for several years. Age a concern?
Tennessee: A great D in 2007. Haynesworth's return should make them better.
Philadelphia: Always solid, but got better stats in 2007 than many realized. Asante Samuel should help secondary.
Chicago: Disappointed in 2007, because of injuries. A semi-bargain in 2008? Not much support expected from offense.
KC: Did better than expected in 2007 without much fanfare. Will they improve in 2008? Not much support expected from offense.
Baltimore: Disappointed in 2007. A semi-bargain in 2008? Not much support expected from offense. Age concerns? Will change in coaches cause disruption?
Indy: Always surprisingly solid, but many people forget the defense because of the offense. Strong offense helps defense by dictating game to opponents.

Mid-range defenses (no surprises here):
Green Bay: Did really well in 2007, but will do they have much room for improvement? Age of CBs a concern? Less support from offense without Favre?
Carolina: Always picked to do well, but seems to always be mediocre.
Denver: Expected to do well in 2007, but too weak on the line. Is new DC any good?
Washington: Seemed on-the-rise, but not quite there yet? Change in coaches a problem?
Arizona: Seemed to turn on at end of season, but not ready to gel yet?
Oakland: Strong secondary, but weak on the line. No reason to expect improvement.

True sleeper defenses ("I want to believe!" in the late rounds):
Miami: They were supposed to be great in 2007, but fell flat. Could Parcells work some magic, fix the problems, and make them a diamond in the rough?
Buffalo: Seemed to be stronger than expected in 2007. Injuries to LBs hurt. Will get more support from offense in 2008. Bad weather always helps stats. Poised to pop?
Houston: D-line is looking much stronger. Secondary still weak. Seems unlikely to be their time, but could it be possible?
SF: Many people picked them to do well in 2007, but they blew up. if the pieces are there, could they pop in 2008?
Detroit: Surprised many in 2007, but I am not convinced, mainly because their improvement came out of nowhere. Any reason to think they'll keep it up in 2008?

Defenses that show no real signs of life (stay away):
NYJ
Cincy
Cleveland
Atlanta
New Orleans
St Louis

[starqb14]

Green bay---very, very young. finished a little weak against the run because 2 of 3 top run stoppers were on IR. backup corners very young, safeties very young, great DLine depth. Great LB youth, poopinga really stepped up play the last few games, same as bigby at safety.
look for them to be much better. Williams was as much a liability as help because of his inconsistent technique and undisciplined play. that landed him a few big plays, but also several times getting blown down field by a single team and losing gap control, which is the entire premise of the gb defense. i could write a dissertation on that.
look for the pack to hit some later-round pass rushers, developmental types, and be much more consistent next year.

[dweaver44]

Dallas' weakness is their secondary.

[49ersfan]

SF's defense has the pieces in place, we just need a better pass rush. Our LBs are pretty solid with Patrick Willis anchoring the unit and Manny Lawson returning at the OLB position. Dontarrius Thomas, Jeff Ulbrich, Tully Banta-Cain, and Brandon Moore will compete for starting jobs along with another LB or two. Our secondary is strong, although we need some depth at CB. DL is our weakness, as we need to resign Marques Douglas to team with Justin Smith, and maybe get a DT to compete with Iaaic Sapouaga.

[scar988]

are you kidding me? Atlanta's defense has a lot of talent:
LE JAmaal Anderson
RE John Abraham
UT John Babineaux
LB Keith Brooking
LB Michael Boley
CB DeAngelo Hall
CB Chris Houston
FS Erik Coleman
SS Lawyer Milloy

if anything defense is our strength

[NoNonsenseCoach]

SD need MLBs. Steelers secondary

[Matt McGuire]

Oh yeah Scar. Tell us about how great Jamaal Anderson was last year. He and his 0.0 sacks last year.

Or how about Babineaux's 4.5 CAREER sacks in his 46 CAREER games. Oh yeah scar, tell me how to get excited about a player that averages 1 sack per ten games.

I think there is a lot of talent on Atlanta's defense, but they didn't play up to it last year so I question if it will ever happen ... I love the hire of Mike Smith maybe he turns it around.

[Dumb Azz Kracka]

Not to jump on the bandwagon of dumping on this guy, but you also can't really count Hall since he's all but gone.

DAK

[yem123]

For the Giants, yeah the secondary is a little erratic. Actually, without our pash rush, our secondary would have been burned a lot this year. Our best safety, Gibril Wilson, just left to go to the Raiders. The other safety, James Butler, absolutely sucks. Backup rookie Michael Johnson showed some promise at safety this year.

With our CBs, I think we are solid with Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster. Webster played incredibly down the stretch and in the playoffs. Ross was our first round pick this year and he started most of the games.... he definitely made a big impact for us.

[scar988]

Oh yeah Scar. Tell us about how great Jamaal Anderson was last year. He and his 0.0 sacks last year.

Or how about Babineaux's 4.5 CAREER sacks in his 46 CAREER games. Oh yeah scar, tell me how to get excited about a player that averages 1 sack per ten games.

I think there is a lot of talent on Atlanta's defense, but they didn't play up to it last year so I question if it will ever happen ... I love the hire of Mike Smith maybe he turns it around.

or how about Babineaux's 4 sacks in last year alone. or the fact that he was top 5 in tackles for loss the past 2 years.

Also, Anderson was a rookie. not all rookies get sacks their first year. it doesn't mean he isn't talented.

[Vbsiena]

Wow how is the Jets Defense not a legit sleeper? 8th against the pass, the rush D will get much better with Jenkins taking double teams all day to free up Harris and the other LBs. Calvin Pace added to rush the QB and tackle players in the open field. Hopefully Gholston we will see. I don't see it didn't get better against the rush and the pass D will continue to do well with Rhodes and Revis leading the way.

[Matt McGuire]

No, but I expect a few sacks in a rookie year. Just a few and some nice flashes here and there. 0.0 sacks = no flashes.

Also, it was 3.5 sacks, not 4. OMG 4 SACKS! Don't piss your pants scar.\

(like you sig btw)

[Lab]

Thanks a lot fellas. These comments are just what I need, and frankly exactly the sort of detailed player-by-player analysis I was hoping to get from the people who post here. Keep the thoughts coming! I'm not sold on Atlanta, but I am intrigued by the Jets! I agree that SF has lots of potential, but they were pretty dismal last year so it's hard to trust them.

What do people here think about Tampa, KC, and Buffalo? Those are defenses that I think have lots of potential, but might be underrated. Also, what about Indy? They are a great defense, but their schedule next year looks brutal for the defense.

Thanks again for the great insight. Keep it coming!

[49ersfan]

SF's defense wasn't dismal. Although they weren't very good statistically, that was because they were on the field too much thanks to the offense's ineptitude.

[Warpig]

KC's defense will be lucky to be middle of the road. Probably more like bottom 20's. Tamba Hali is a liability in the run game and teams will run at him all day. Unless they improve their DT's they will also be succeptible up the middle (D Edwards is moving inside I believe and Demorrio will bump outside). They have ZERO corners on their roster other than Surtain who has been losing a step the past 2 years. Their safeties are young and give up the big play every now and then.

So the Chiefs defense will probably look solid against poorer teams but will get exposed for what they really are against the better teams.

PLUS...that offense is gonna be putrid and the defense will be on the field far too long in games.