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Totals tips for Walter

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  • Totals tips for Walter

    Hi Walter,

    First i'd like to compliment your handicapping abilities, I think you see things the correct way for the most part.

    You asked for totals tips and i have a few for what they're worth.

    These are generlizations that have to be weighed against other things:

    1. avoid going "over" in games where it's anticpated to be a "shootout"
    the first glaring example of this was opening thursday night in the Colts/Saints game. first of all that 52 1/2 was alot to ask in the first week of the season when skills players dont play much at all in pre-season. but these kind of games are what make the books rich. The public loves to go over and sit back and watch the fire works. While it's painful to go under in these games most times you should. Turnovers in the red zone kill overs and they happen all the time.

    2. Avoid going Under in games deemed as a "defensive struggle". The number is usually so low and what kills those unders are defensive scores and turnovers. yeah you could say these two teams should produce an under cause they dont score much, but when the number is 32 1/2 or 33, one fluke play puts it in jeopardy. I find these games go over more than under

    3. Consider an under when a team was involved in a high scoring affair the game before. u see this in baseball too. Whenever there is an offensive explosion teams tend to work hard the next outing in keeping the game reasonably scoring. the same breakdowns that happened are usually addressed and fixed for at least that next game, and also the breaks the team got on offense arent likely to happen again.

    might i suggest and under in week 3 in the the raiders/browns game
    browns wont score like that again all year.

    the bengals game id consider going under in as well

    these are just some general tidbits ive picked up through observation and im not sure that the numbers will support my ideas. but they are something additional to think about when calcualting over/unders.

    back with more as they come to me
    Last edited by pickin_usa; 09-18-2007, 10:11 AM.

  • #2
    That's great advice that I'll definitely take into account in Week 3.

    I went 9-7 with totals in Week 2, but that was more throwing darts with a blindfold than anything.
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    • #3
      Personally, I wouldn't focus on ATS (against the spread) stats at all. Spreads are artificial numbers created by Vegas. Teams don't play to cover spreads, they just play to win.

      Furthermore, spreads could be set at a particular amount for any number of reasons. Looking back weeks or years, those reasons are often forgotten, and the stats are tainted.