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Patriots...had no chance to win the super bowl

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  • Patriots...had no chance to win the super bowl

    1/524,288=Chance that the Patriots would go 19-0

    I just learned how to figure that stuff out in math and I thought about the pats chances and they had NOOOOOOO chance.

    ANY Thoughts??

  • #2
    Unless it is 0/524,288 then they have a chance.

    All they had to do was hold off Eli Manning's late drive ... I doubt they had a 1/524,288 chance of stopping him.
    2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

    Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by bulldog0123 View Post
      1/524,288=Chance that the Patriots would go 19-0

      I just learned how to figure that stuff out in math and I thought about the pats chances and they had NOOOOOOO chance.

      ANY Thoughts??
      but that's at random, like getting heads on a coin 19times in a row. Simple probability doesn't consider how good a team is in this case.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by bulldog0123 View Post
        1/524,288=Chance that the Patriots would go 19-0

        I just learned how to figure that stuff out in math and I thought about the pats chances and they had NOOOOOOO chance.

        ANY Thoughts??
        Well before anyone tries to prove you wrong, do you care to explain how you came up with that?
        WalterFootball.com Forum Moderator




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        • #5
          The probability of winning a football game isn't a 1:1 ratio. So those odds aren't correct.

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          • #6
            As a math major, that is an extremely skewed statistic. I assume you simply did 2 to the 19th, which would be ok if you just started the season with an average team. The second the team is above average and has a better chance to win a game everything changes, then throw in the fact that the fact there had won the few weeks previous had little to do with the outcome of the game.

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            • #7
              P(A or B) = P(A U B)= P(A) + P(B).

              ^Probability of a mutually exclusive event.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by vbsiena24 View Post
                Well before anyone tries to prove you wrong, do you care to explain how you came up with that?
                how i can up with the odd for the patriots going 19-0:
                If you make a tree chart then the amount of options for the denominator doubles every time.Since there is only one way to go 19-0 then that is the numerator. For the denominator it is 2 to the 19th power
                1/2 to the 19 the power



                In the thread title i meant to say "Patriots...had almost no chance to go 19-0"
                Last edited by bulldog0123; 04-04-2008, 04:16 PM.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by bulldog0123 View Post
                  how i can up with the odd for the patriots going 19-0:
                  If you make a tree chart then the amount of options for the denominator doubles every time.Since there is only one way to go 19-0 then that is the numerator. For the denominator it is 2 to the 19th power
                  1/2 to the 19 the power



                  In the thread title i meant to say "Patriots...had almost no chance to go 19-0"
                  that is a thoretical...not experimental
                  Last edited by bulldog0123; 04-04-2008, 04:16 PM.

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                  • #10
                    lol bulldog can you make up an theoretical probabibility that eli manning makes this play:

                    http://youtube.com/watch?v=d3g35ZslZs0

                    76 times 13.8 to the W power equals Eli Manning beast mode 6th dimension.
                    2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

                    Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Matt McGuire View Post
                      lol bulldog can you make up an theoretical probabibility that eli manning makes this play:

                      http://youtube.com/watch?v=d3g35ZslZs0

                      76 times 13.8 to the X power equals Eli Manning beast mode 6th dimension.
                      im not sure how to for that play but the dimension is hilarious

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by bulldog0123 View Post
                        im not sure how to for that play but the dimension is hilarious
                        The point is you can't. There are too many variable factors. Injuries, playing conditions, match ups, long nights out "making it rain", etc. Another reason the 19-0 mathematical logic you gave doesn't work.
                        WalterFootball.com Forum Moderator




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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by vbsiena24 View Post
                          The point is you can't. There are too many variable factors. Injuries, playing conditions, match ups, long nights out "making it rain", etc. Another reason the 19-0 mathematical logic you gave doesn't work.
                          as i said before it is theoretical NOT experimental

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                          • #14
                            That doesn't theoretically work because you don't have equal probability of each event happening. For example the Patriots are one of the best teams in the leage with a one of the best coaching staffs. That would up their chances of going 19-0.

                            For the probability to work exponentially you would need essentially 32 teams of equal talent or to copy one franchise over the other 32 and have them play each other to see if one emerges 19-0.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by NoNonsenseCoach View Post
                              For the probability to work exponentially you would need essentially 32 teams of equal talent or to copy one franchise over the other 32 and have them play each other to see if one emerges 19-0.
                              Run a Madden sim for the same season starting out with the same player ratings and do that a million times and we might find a more accurate answer rather than 1/520k ... but this is an irrelevant point all together let's just leave bulldog with his thoughts so he can think he is a football math wiz (like harry potter the NFL Draftnik lol).
                              2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

                              Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

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