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Week 5 Survivor

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  • Week 5 Survivor

    Seattle over Tampa won in Week 1.
    Chicago over Kansas City won in Week 2.
    Pittsburgh over San Francisco won in Week 3.
    Dallas over St. Louis won in Week 4.

    In case you don't know what this is, you need to pick a team to just win each week. If that team wins, you stay alive. If that team loses, you're out. You can't pick the same team twice.


    These are guidelines I use:

    1. Never pick road teams
    2. Never pick a bad team
    3. Stay away from public plays
    4. Never pick a team that could either be looking ahead or behind
    5. Never pick divisional games

    The 14 home teams in Week 5 are (excluding ones I picked):

    St. Louis
    Tennessee
    New Orleans
    New England
    Washington
    Kansas City
    Houston
    NY Giants
    Indianapolis
    San Francisco
    Denver
    Green Bay

    Knocking the bad teams off, we have:

    Tennessee
    New England
    Washington
    Houston
    NY Giants
    Indianapolis
    San Francisco
    Denver
    Green Bay

    Eliminating divisional games, we have:

    Tennessee
    New England
    Washington
    Houston
    NY Giants
    Indianapolis
    San Francisco


    Tennessee playing Atlanta, strong possibility
    New England playing Cleveland, strong possibility
    Washington playing Detroit, possibility
    Houston playing Miami, possibility
    NY Giants playing NY Jets, eliminate
    Indianapolis playing Tampa Bay, strong possibility
    San Francisco playing Baltimore, eliminate

    We've narrowed it down to:
    Tennessee over Atlanta
    New England over Cleveland
    Washington over Detroit
    Houston over Miami
    Indianapolis over Tampa Bay


    Teams looking ahead:
    TEN perhaps looking to Tampa
    NE looking to Dallas, though they won't have a problem with Cleveland
    Washington looking to Green Bay
    Houston looking to Jacksonville
    Indianapolis has bye

    We've now narrowed it down to:
    Tennessee over Atlanta
    New England over Cleveland
    Washington over Detroit
    Houston over Miami
    Indianapolis over Tampa Bay


    We don't know what the public is betting on yet.

    OK, so what do you guys think? What's the strongest team we can choose out of those five?
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  • #2
    Strongest-NE

    But I would go DET over WAS

    Comment


    • #3
      One thing we have to decide is if we want to use NE or save them for later. This is the rest of their home schedule. Let's see where we can use them in the future:

      Week 8: NE over WASH - yes
      Week 12: NE over PHI - yes
      Week 14: NE over PIT - no
      Week 15: NE over NYJ - div game; no
      Week 16: NE over MIA - div game; no


      OK, what about Indy?
      Week 9: INDY over NE - hell no
      Week 11: INDY over KC - hell yes
      Week 13: INDY over JAX - no
      Week 16: INDY over HOU - div game; no
      Week 17: INDY over TEN - div game; no


      What about TEN?
      Week 8: TEN over OAK - yes (same week as NE over WAS)
      Week 9: TEN over CAR - yes (though I'd rather not cuz Car always plays well as a dog)
      Week 10: TEN over JAX - div game; no
      Week 13: TEN over HOU - div game; no
      Week 14: TEN over SD - maybe
      Week 16: TEN over NYJ - maybe


      Might as well do HOU:
      Week 7: HOU over TEN - div game; no
      Week 11: HOU over NO - maybe
      Week 14: HOU over TB - no
      Week 15: HOU over DEN - probably not
      Week 17: HOU over JAX - div game; no


      And WAS:
      Week 7: WAS over ARZ - maybe
      Week 10: WAS over PHI - div game; no
      Week 13: WAS over BUF - probably
      Week 14: WAS over CHI - maybe
      Week 17: WAS over DAL - div game; no


      Analysis:

      We can use NE Weeks 5, 8 and 12.
      We can use INDY Weeks 5 and 11... so if we don't use them this week, we have to use them Week 11.
      We can use TEN Weeks 5, 8 and 9.
      If we don't use HOU this week, we may never will.
      We can use WAS Weeks 5, 13, and maybe 7 and 14.

      Forget about using NE Week 12. We have some nice options like JAX over BUF and NYG over MIN.

      So, if we use NE Week 5, we can take TEN Week 8 or 9, and INDY Week 11.

      Thoughts?
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      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by bills_red View Post
        Strongest-NE

        But I would go DET over WAS
        That violates Rule 1.
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        • #5
          Originally posted by Walter View Post
          That violates Rule 1.
          oh, okay. Houston over Miami could be close if HOU plays like they did last week. But I always take the close ones and keep NE and stuff for later.

          Comment


          • #6
            Well, if you read my 2nd big post:

            We can use NE Weeks 5, 8 and 12.

            We then could use TEN over OAK in Week 8, and TB over ARZ in Week 9.
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            • #7
              I'll go with NE over CLE...don't count out Cam Cameron's play calling vs. Houston which could be an upset.

              NE is the safest bet.
              2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

              Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

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              • #8
                Tennessee over Atlanta no
                New England over Cleveland yes
                Washington over Detroit no
                Houston over Miami yesI
                ndianapolis over Tampa Bay yes yes

                Comment


                • #9
                  Why isn't NE over Cleveland a yes yes?
                  2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

                  Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

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                  • #10
                    my double pick I would use for my survivor strong pick, NE I not sure clev can play ball

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                    • #11
                      And Tampa Bay can't...are you watching the NFL?
                      2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

                      Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

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                      • #12
                        I'd be way more worried about TB than Cleveland... although the Browns have played well since getting blown out by Pittsburgh.
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                        • #13
                          I've been hating on Cleveland all year but they've been proving me wrong so far
                          Check out my new site Today!
                          Live 4 The Story

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Matt McGuire View Post
                            And Tampa Bay can't...are you watching the NFL?
                            Indy is the pick not TB, I will go with NE this weekend

                            Good luck to everyone this weekend

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Good luck to you as well.

                              I went NE
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