Week 5 Survivor

[Walter]

Seattle over Tampa won in Week 1.
Chicago over Kansas City won in Week 2.
Pittsburgh over San Francisco won in Week 3.
Dallas over St. Louis won in Week 4.

In case you don't know what this is, you need to pick a team to just win each week. If that team wins, you stay alive. If that team loses, you're out. You can't pick the same team twice.


These are guidelines I use:

1. Never pick road teams
2. Never pick a bad team
3. Stay away from public plays
4. Never pick a team that could either be looking ahead or behind
5. Never pick divisional games

The 14 home teams in Week 5 are (excluding ones I picked):

St. Louis
Tennessee
New Orleans
New England
Washington
Kansas City
Houston
NY Giants
Indianapolis
San Francisco
Denver
Green Bay

Knocking the bad teams off, we have:

Tennessee
New England
Washington
Houston
NY Giants
Indianapolis
San Francisco
Denver
Green Bay

Eliminating divisional games, we have:

Tennessee
New England
Washington
Houston
NY Giants
Indianapolis
San Francisco


Tennessee playing Atlanta, strong possibility
New England playing Cleveland, strong possibility
Washington playing Detroit, possibility
Houston playing Miami, possibility
NY Giants playing NY Jets, eliminate
Indianapolis playing Tampa Bay, strong possibility
San Francisco playing Baltimore, eliminate

We've narrowed it down to:
Tennessee over Atlanta
New England over Cleveland
Washington over Detroit
Houston over Miami
Indianapolis over Tampa Bay


Teams looking ahead:
TEN perhaps looking to Tampa
NE looking to Dallas, though they won't have a problem with Cleveland
Washington looking to Green Bay
Houston looking to Jacksonville
Indianapolis has bye

We've now narrowed it down to:
Tennessee over Atlanta
New England over Cleveland
Washington over Detroit
Houston over Miami
Indianapolis over Tampa Bay

We don't know what the public is betting on yet.

OK, so what do you guys think? What's the strongest team we can choose out of those five?

[bills_red]

Strongest-NE

But I would go DET over WAS

[Walter]

One thing we have to decide is if we want to use NE or save them for later. This is the rest of their home schedule. Let's see where we can use them in the future:

Week 8: NE over WASH - yes
Week 12: NE over PHI - yes
Week 14: NE over PIT - no
Week 15: NE over NYJ - div game; no
Week 16: NE over MIA - div game; no


OK, what about Indy?
Week 9: INDY over NE - hell no
Week 11: INDY over KC - hell yes
Week 13: INDY over JAX - no
Week 16: INDY over HOU - div game; no
Week 17: INDY over TEN - div game; no


What about TEN?
Week 8: TEN over OAK - yes (same week as NE over WAS)
Week 9: TEN over CAR - yes (though I'd rather not cuz Car always plays well as a dog)
Week 10: TEN over JAX - div game; no
Week 13: TEN over HOU - div game; no
Week 14: TEN over SD - maybe
Week 16: TEN over NYJ - maybe


Might as well do HOU:
Week 7: HOU over TEN - div game; no
Week 11: HOU over NO - maybe
Week 14: HOU over TB - no
Week 15: HOU over DEN - probably not
Week 17: HOU over JAX - div game; no


And WAS:
Week 7: WAS over ARZ - maybe
Week 10: WAS over PHI - div game; no
Week 13: WAS over BUF - probably
Week 14: WAS over CHI - maybe
Week 17: WAS over DAL - div game; no


Analysis:

We can use NE Weeks 5, 8 and 12.
We can use INDY Weeks 5 and 11... so if we don't use them this week, we have to use them Week 11.
We can use TEN Weeks 5, 8 and 9.
If we don't use HOU this week, we may never will.
We can use WAS Weeks 5, 13, and maybe 7 and 14.

Forget about using NE Week 12. We have some nice options like JAX over BUF and NYG over MIN.

So, if we use NE Week 5, we can take TEN Week 8 or 9, and INDY Week 11.

Thoughts?

[Walter]

Strongest-NE

But I would go DET over WAS

That violates Rule 1.

[bills_red]

That violates Rule 1.

oh, okay. Houston over Miami could be close if HOU plays like they did last week. But I always take the close ones and keep NE and stuff for later.

[Walter]

Well, if you read my 2nd big post:

We can use NE Weeks 5, 8 and 12.

We then could use TEN over OAK in Week 8, and TB over ARZ in Week 9.

[Matt McGuire]

I'll go with NE over CLE...don't count out Cam Cameron's play calling vs. Houston which could be an upset.

NE is the safest bet.

[swifty222]

Tennessee over Atlanta no
New England over Cleveland yes
Washington over Detroit no
Houston over Miami yesI
ndianapolis over Tampa Bay yes yes

[Matt McGuire]

Why isn't NE over Cleveland a yes yes?

[swifty222]

my double pick I would use for my survivor strong pick, NE I not sure clev can play ball

[Matt McGuire]

And Tampa Bay can't...are you watching the NFL?

[Walter]

I'd be way more worried about TB than Cleveland... although the Browns have played well since getting blown out by Pittsburgh.

[Adam Mac]

I've been hating on Cleveland all year but they've been proving me wrong so far

[swifty222]

And Tampa Bay can't...are you watching the NFL?

Indy is the pick not TB, I will go with NE this weekend

Good luck to everyone this weekend

[Walter]

Good luck to you as well.

I went NE