W5 Why is New Orleans favored over Carolina?

[Duke]

Hello, I am new at handicapping, but have been doing pretty well the first 4 weeks. I absolutely do not understand why the LV line is favoring New Orleans over Carolina. I understand there is a rule of thumb 3 point home advantage, but it still should have Carolina the favorite. Can anyone explain this please? Thanks, Duke (a coffee pool player)

[Walter]

Welcome to the site, Duke.

By setting this line at -3, Vegas is implying these teams are even. I think it would have been different a week ago, but the Panthers lost to Tampa Bay at home, and David Carr was absolutely dreadful. That's why Saints are -3.

I take it you like Carolina? I do as well.

[Duke]

Thanks Walter, your reasoning makes sense. Do you think the LV experts have those variables such as losing a home gain, and an individuals poor performance factored into a computer program? If I look at USA today's site I see 6 different line sources which only vary 1/2 a point. It would seem that they either are all using the same program, or else five of them are copying one's line, and adding a .5 point of individuality. My simple program says Carolina by three points. Of course I only have a total of 4 weeks experience with it, but I have won $250 in coffee. Duke

[Walter]

I don't know if they use a computer program. I think they have to have some sort of inside information, or anything that has to do with larceny, because when they set an obvious line, the average bettors seldom win.

[Duke]

Walter, I am sure they have a computer program cranking out the line. I just don't know if it is one original and five copies, or six very similar programs. Remember I am new at this so I am just using my engineering experience, on what I see as a interesting problem. If I understand it right, LV wants the line to produce an equal amount of winners and losers. They make the most money on a 50/50 split. They must have been upset in week 4 because there were 11 wins against the spread. Please correct me if any of the above is incorrect. Duke

[Walter]

If I understand it right, LV wants the line to produce an equal amount of winners and losers. They make the most money on a 50/50 split. Duke

Contrary to popular belief, this is a myth! Vegas wants 50/50 on some games, but sometimes they put out a soft line to induce a lot of action on one side, because they know the other one is right.

[Duke]

Interesting. If you are right about deliberate skewing of the line, then it follows that there is collusion among the six companies putting out almost identical lines. I think in one of your pre-game discussions you used the words "let's see where the money is". What did you mean?

[Walter]

Check out my picks page:

http://walterfootball.com/picks.php

I have an entire section for each pick devoted to whom the public is picking, and how many bets are being placed. If there is one-sided action on a game, chances are it goes the other way.