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Dan Dobkowski's Five Rules for Drafting a Fantasy Defense

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  • Dan Dobkowski's Five Rules for Drafting a Fantasy Defense

    Dan was a guest writer and compiled this article. I think it's pretty interesting... I didn't realize the disparity was so low:

    http://walterfootball.com/fantasydefense.php
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  • #2
    already read it

    Interesting theory I have: draft a defense with a really good offense. Fantasy defenses are all about TDs and turnovers. Well defenses with as many opportunities as possible are going to have the best chance for these.

    Thats why I think Arizona's defense was good in fantasy.
    2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

    Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

    Comment


    • #3
      That sounds pretty accurate, but I'm still going to take whoever's around in round 14-15. =P

      And I was sorta taking pride in being the only person ever to have an article with zero fanfare.
      Last edited by Blazedestin; 07-22-2008, 09:51 AM.
      - Also known as Dan.
      - Also known as the footballclod, where I do my own fantasy football and other football related stuff. -> www.footballclod.wordpress.com

      Comment


      • #4
        One thing matters more than anything else... schedule.

        Draft a mediocre or better defense that faces a lot of bad offenses. For example, a couple of years ago I drafted the Bears defense in the 7th round of our draft. I was mocked for it at the time, by my fellow fantasy coaches, for drafting a defense way too early. However, soon the 30+ points per week I was putting up with just my defense silenced all critics.

        The following season, someone tried to copy my strategy by drafting the Bears defense in the 6th round. Huge, huge, mistake. They didn't have the cupcake schedule that season, and they were merely a good fantasy defense as a result, definitally not worthy of such an early selection. Meanwhile, I picked the Steelers and the Vikings defenses in the middle to late rounds. I then rotated them based on their schedules which worked nicely because every week, one of them was squaring off against a bad offense. Again, my defense was averaging 30+ points per week.
        Last edited by ZN0rseman; 07-22-2008, 11:02 AM.
        sigpic
        WFB Comments on Vikings @ Steelers Game Rigging
        PuppyPuncher:"It sure was nice enough of Roger Goodell to let the refs from Ark-Florida officiate the Vikings-Steelers game"
        NoNonsenseCoach:"As a Steelers fan living in Pittsburgh I can still admit that tripping penalty was a complete ghost call."
        Simonds:"The tripping call was awful, yes, but there were a number of other absurd calls that went against the Vikings, including a DEFENSIVE delay of game penalty against the Vikings only called after a failed attempt to convert a third and 2 by the Steelers. Even the commentators were utterly floored that the refs made that call."
        Wraith36444:"A shady tripping call on Minnesota essentially gave the game to the Steelers. The Vikings were the better team, but it is too hard to beat a decent team and the refs. Oh and Harvin is the man."
        MaineMan:"I have to agree that it was an awful call and that it changed the outcome. Overall a great game by the Vikes and tragic that the well-deserved victory was stolen away like that."
        PaddyPatriot:"I've seen this play and I have to agree, I can't believe they called it tripping"
        Johndoe:"You know the officiating is bad when a Steeler's fan, like myself, thinks it was pretty bad."
        Steelers_Pens_Fan:"I will admit that the whole "tripping" thing probably shouldn't have been a flag."
        ZN0rseman:"It's great to know that good old fashioned pro football game rigging is still alive and well in America."
        Klunker18:"I'm with Z on this one. Definitely one of those games that makes you wonder if the NFL wants certain teams to win."
        TRICKaz"I agree that was a BS call"
        InjuredReserve:"Have yet to hear anyone say it was the right call. Seems as if the Vikings were cheated a bit."
        Eagles4Life:"Coaches just need to be able to challenge penalties"
        EL_Guapo:"The tripping call was bad, the delay of game was stupid Either way, the Vikings showed they are a top team."
        EllijayFalconsFan:"The tripping penalty was rediculous."
        Archon095:"Even as a Steeler fan I agree that the call was bull."
        BroncosCon:"I'm sorry that was a total bull**** call and it changed the outcome of the game. Pittsburgh still won, but it was almost like Denver winning at Cincy."

        Tony Dungy:"The Vikings are just one bad tripping penalty away from being undefeated.
        Jon Gruden:"That was just a bad, bad call. It cost the Vikings an important win at Pittsburgh, and it could really hurt them in the post season."

        Comment


        • #5
          With teams I never draft a defense high and usually switch a good 2-4 times throughout the season because there is almost always that berakout defense that went under the radar... With def players I do however draft a bit higher bu still not before my offense is set up
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          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by ZN0rseman View Post
            One thing matters more than anything else... schedule.

            Draft a mediocre or better defense that faces a lot of bad offenses. For example, a couple of years ago I drafted the Bears defense in the 7th round of our draft. I was mocked for it at the time, by my fellow fantasy coaches, for drafting a defense way too early. However, soon the 30+ points per week I was putting up with just my defense silenced all critics.

            The following season, someone tried to copy my strategy by drafting the Bears defense in the 6th round. Huge, huge, mistake. They didn't have the cupcake schedule that season, and they were a piss poor fantasy defense as a result. Meanwhile, I picked the Steelers and the Vikings defenses in the middle to late rounds. I then rotated them based on their schedules which worked nicely because every week, one of them was squaring off against a bad offense. Again, my defense was averaging 30+ points per week.
            Dude. That isn't possible. The top three defenses COMBINED scored just over 30 points per game. I get you're exaggerating, though. =P
            - Also known as Dan.
            - Also known as the footballclod, where I do my own fantasy football and other football related stuff. -> www.footballclod.wordpress.com

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Blazedestin View Post
              Dude. That isn't possible. The top three defenses COMBINED scored just over 30 points per game. I get you're exaggerating, though. =P
              The scoring for our defenses is as follows...

              INT/FR = 3 points
              Sack = 1 points
              Safety = 4 points
              D/ST TD = 7 points

              Points Allowed
              0 - 1 DSTPAs = 10 points
              2 - 3 DSTPAs = 8 points
              4 - 10 DSTPAs = 6 points
              11 - 14 DSTPAs = 4 points
              15 - 17 DSTPAs = 2 points
              18 - 21 DSTPAs = 0 points
              22 - 28 DSTPAs = -2 points
              29 - 35 DSTPAs = -4 points
              36 - 42 DSTPAs = -6 points
              43 - 49 DSTPAs = -8 points
              50 - 56 DSTPAs = -10 points
              57 - 99 DSTPAs = -12 points

              So a team with the following defensive stats...

              1 FR
              2 INT
              4 Sacks
              2 D/ST TD
              10 Defensive Points allowed
              -------------------
              35 Points scored.

              That was an average day for the 2006 Bears and their schedule, so it's not hard to hit 30 points with that scoring system. Especially if your defense is facing an opponent with a terrible offense.
              Last edited by ZN0rseman; 07-22-2008, 02:02 PM.
              sigpic
              WFB Comments on Vikings @ Steelers Game Rigging
              PuppyPuncher:"It sure was nice enough of Roger Goodell to let the refs from Ark-Florida officiate the Vikings-Steelers game"
              NoNonsenseCoach:"As a Steelers fan living in Pittsburgh I can still admit that tripping penalty was a complete ghost call."
              Simonds:"The tripping call was awful, yes, but there were a number of other absurd calls that went against the Vikings, including a DEFENSIVE delay of game penalty against the Vikings only called after a failed attempt to convert a third and 2 by the Steelers. Even the commentators were utterly floored that the refs made that call."
              Wraith36444:"A shady tripping call on Minnesota essentially gave the game to the Steelers. The Vikings were the better team, but it is too hard to beat a decent team and the refs. Oh and Harvin is the man."
              MaineMan:"I have to agree that it was an awful call and that it changed the outcome. Overall a great game by the Vikes and tragic that the well-deserved victory was stolen away like that."
              PaddyPatriot:"I've seen this play and I have to agree, I can't believe they called it tripping"
              Johndoe:"You know the officiating is bad when a Steeler's fan, like myself, thinks it was pretty bad."
              Steelers_Pens_Fan:"I will admit that the whole "tripping" thing probably shouldn't have been a flag."
              ZN0rseman:"It's great to know that good old fashioned pro football game rigging is still alive and well in America."
              Klunker18:"I'm with Z on this one. Definitely one of those games that makes you wonder if the NFL wants certain teams to win."
              TRICKaz"I agree that was a BS call"
              InjuredReserve:"Have yet to hear anyone say it was the right call. Seems as if the Vikings were cheated a bit."
              Eagles4Life:"Coaches just need to be able to challenge penalties"
              EL_Guapo:"The tripping call was bad, the delay of game was stupid Either way, the Vikings showed they are a top team."
              EllijayFalconsFan:"The tripping penalty was rediculous."
              Archon095:"Even as a Steeler fan I agree that the call was bull."
              BroncosCon:"I'm sorry that was a total bull**** call and it changed the outcome of the game. Pittsburgh still won, but it was almost like Denver winning at Cincy."

              Tony Dungy:"The Vikings are just one bad tripping penalty away from being undefeated.
              Jon Gruden:"That was just a bad, bad call. It cost the Vikings an important win at Pittsburgh, and it could really hurt them in the post season."

              Comment


              • #8
                Who is this Dan Dobkowski and why should I trust him? Oh well, I guess I'll read the article. Good, but short, article.
                Last edited by MMONTERO; 07-22-2008, 02:12 PM.


                R.I.P. Sean Taylor 1983-2007
                HAIL TO THE REDSKINS!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by MMONTERO View Post
                  Who is this Dan Dobkowski and why should I trust him? Oh well, I guess I'll read the article. Good, but short, article.
                  That would be me.

                  Jackass.
                  - Also known as Dan.
                  - Also known as the footballclod, where I do my own fantasy football and other football related stuff. -> www.footballclod.wordpress.com

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ZN0rseman View Post
                    The scoring for our defenses is as follows...

                    INT/FR = 3 points
                    Sack = 1 points
                    Safety = 4 points
                    D/ST TD = 7 points

                    Points Allowed
                    0 - 1 DSTPAs = 10 points
                    2 - 3 DSTPAs = 8 points
                    4 - 10 DSTPAs = 6 points
                    11 - 14 DSTPAs = 4 points
                    15 - 17 DSTPAs = 2 points
                    18 - 21 DSTPAs = 0 points
                    22 - 28 DSTPAs = -2 points
                    29 - 35 DSTPAs = -4 points
                    36 - 42 DSTPAs = -6 points
                    43 - 49 DSTPAs = -8 points
                    50 - 56 DSTPAs = -10 points
                    57 - 99 DSTPAs = -12 points

                    So a team with the following defensive stats...

                    1 FR
                    2 INT
                    4 Sacks
                    2 D/ST TD
                    10 Defensive Points allowed
                    -------------------
                    35 Points scored.

                    That was an average day for the 2006 Bears and their schedule, so it's not hard to hit 30 points with that scoring system. Especially if your defense is facing an opponent with a terrible offense.
                    That's a lot more than normal leagues. But I guess if that's how your league works, then yeah, that's different.
                    - Also known as Dan.
                    - Also known as the footballclod, where I do my own fantasy football and other football related stuff. -> www.footballclod.wordpress.com

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Blazedestin View Post
                      That would be me.

                      Jackass.
                      I haven't laughed this hard in days.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Blazedestin View Post
                        That's a lot more than normal leagues. But I guess if that's how your league works, then yeah, that's different.
                        We have been playing in the same league since 1996. We started out with a very basic scoring system, probably quite similar to what the average league runs today. Over the years we've been tweaking it to gradually turn it into what it is today, which I think is about perfect.

                        The guys who play in our league are really into the fantasy stats reflecting the actual play of the individuals drafted. For example, some QB's who are heavy on interception are quite fine in some leagues where they don't suffer much of a penalty. In our league, interceptions and fumbles take away half of a touchdown. That resulted in a a guy like Daunte Cullpepper (in his prime) not being an elite QB to have because in our scoring system, his average of 2 turnovers per game virutually negated his scoring theatrics with Randy Moss. So, he was a better than average fantasy QB, but not fantastic as he was in other league. We felt this system better portrayed reality.

                        Likewise, we tweaked our scoring system to favor defenses that were actually playing well. We got tired of seeing people get away with having fantasy defenses there were scoring well in fantasy but still allowing 30+ points per week. (See Arizona.) As you can see this system heavily penalizes defenses for allowing a lot of points, and heavily rewards those that allow few to no points. This had two major effects on the league. The first was it allowed your defense to really become a source of good points. It also really had a negative effect on those who neglected to pick a decent defense and that really changed the dynamic of the draft. People could no longer just do the normal fantasy strategy of making their kickers and defenses their last picks. Now, they have to really weigh in on where they want to be strong and weak... you had to pick your battles when drafting. Your sleepers made a much bigger difference too. For example, if you felt strongly about 2 sleeper WR's in the draft, you might decide to take a D/ST, TE and Kicker a little earlier and then fill your WR's in the later rounds.
                        sigpic
                        WFB Comments on Vikings @ Steelers Game Rigging
                        PuppyPuncher:"It sure was nice enough of Roger Goodell to let the refs from Ark-Florida officiate the Vikings-Steelers game"
                        NoNonsenseCoach:"As a Steelers fan living in Pittsburgh I can still admit that tripping penalty was a complete ghost call."
                        Simonds:"The tripping call was awful, yes, but there were a number of other absurd calls that went against the Vikings, including a DEFENSIVE delay of game penalty against the Vikings only called after a failed attempt to convert a third and 2 by the Steelers. Even the commentators were utterly floored that the refs made that call."
                        Wraith36444:"A shady tripping call on Minnesota essentially gave the game to the Steelers. The Vikings were the better team, but it is too hard to beat a decent team and the refs. Oh and Harvin is the man."
                        MaineMan:"I have to agree that it was an awful call and that it changed the outcome. Overall a great game by the Vikes and tragic that the well-deserved victory was stolen away like that."
                        PaddyPatriot:"I've seen this play and I have to agree, I can't believe they called it tripping"
                        Johndoe:"You know the officiating is bad when a Steeler's fan, like myself, thinks it was pretty bad."
                        Steelers_Pens_Fan:"I will admit that the whole "tripping" thing probably shouldn't have been a flag."
                        ZN0rseman:"It's great to know that good old fashioned pro football game rigging is still alive and well in America."
                        Klunker18:"I'm with Z on this one. Definitely one of those games that makes you wonder if the NFL wants certain teams to win."
                        TRICKaz"I agree that was a BS call"
                        InjuredReserve:"Have yet to hear anyone say it was the right call. Seems as if the Vikings were cheated a bit."
                        Eagles4Life:"Coaches just need to be able to challenge penalties"
                        EL_Guapo:"The tripping call was bad, the delay of game was stupid Either way, the Vikings showed they are a top team."
                        EllijayFalconsFan:"The tripping penalty was rediculous."
                        Archon095:"Even as a Steeler fan I agree that the call was bull."
                        BroncosCon:"I'm sorry that was a total bull**** call and it changed the outcome of the game. Pittsburgh still won, but it was almost like Denver winning at Cincy."

                        Tony Dungy:"The Vikings are just one bad tripping penalty away from being undefeated.
                        Jon Gruden:"That was just a bad, bad call. It cost the Vikings an important win at Pittsburgh, and it could really hurt them in the post season."

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ZN0rseman View Post
                          We have been playing in the same league since 1996. We started out with a very basic scoring system, probably quite similar to what the average league runs today. Over the years we've been tweaking it to gradually turn it into what it is today, which I think is about perfect.

                          The guys who play in our league are really into the fantasy stats reflecting the actual play of the individuals drafted. For example, some QB's who are heavy on interception are quite fine in some leagues where they don't suffer much of a penalty. In our league, interceptions and fumbles take away half of a touchdown. That resulted in a a guy like Daunte Cullpepper (in his prime) not being an elite QB to have because in our scoring system, his average of 2 turnovers per game virutually negated his scoring theatrics with Randy Moss. So, he was a better than average fantasy QB, but not fantastic as he was in other league. We felt this system better portrayed reality.

                          Likewise, we tweaked our scoring system to favor defenses that were actually playing well. We got tired of seeing people get away with having fantasy defenses there were scoring well in fantasy but still allowing 30+ points per week. (See Arizona.) As you can see this system heavily penalizes defenses for allowing a lot of points, and heavily rewards those that allow few to no points. This had two major effects on the league. The first was it allowed your defense to really become a source of good points. It also really had a negative effect on those who neglected to pick a decent defense and that really changed the dynamic of the draft. People could no longer just do the normal fantasy strategy of making their kickers and defenses their last picks. Now, they have to really weigh in on where they want to be strong and weak... you had to pick your battles when drafting. Your sleepers made a much bigger difference too. For example, if you felt strongly about 2 sleeper WR's in the draft, you might decide to take a D/ST, TE and Kicker a little earlier and then fill your WR's in the later rounds.
                          Okay, that's fine and great. I don't have an issue with that, and it makes perfect sense. But I'm willing to bet that 97% of the leagues have defensive scoring either as standard, or so close to standard my analysis holds true. So because it doesn't apply to your 3%, doesn't make my analysis invalid, because every other analysis ever is also bad due to your system.
                          - Also known as Dan.
                          - Also known as the footballclod, where I do my own fantasy football and other football related stuff. -> www.footballclod.wordpress.com

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Blazedestin View Post
                            Okay, that's fine and great. I don't have an issue with that, and it makes perfect sense. But I'm willing to bet that 97% of the leagues have defensive scoring either as standard, or so close to standard my analysis holds true. So because it doesn't apply to your 3%, doesn't make my analysis invalid, because every other analysis ever is also bad due to your system.
                            Oh, don't get me wrong, I think your analysis is right on... just not for leagues with realistic scoring systems.

                            BTW: If anyone is curious how ours ended up last year, here are the top 30 or so fantasy players. As you can see, QB's had an extremely unusually high scoring ratio this year. Normally, it's a much better mix or positions.

                            Brady, Tom QB 461.4
                            Moss, Randy WR 320.2
                            Romo, Tony QB 307.8
                            Tomlinson, LaDainian RB 292.2
                            Manning, Peyton QB 292.0
                            Westbrook, Brian RB 281.0
                            Favre, Brett QB 263.2
                            Roethlisberger, Ben QB 257.6
                            Brees, Drew QB 254.0
                            Anderson, Derek QB 253.4
                            Owens, Terrell WR 247.9
                            Hasselbeck, Matt QB 247.2
                            Edwards, Braylon WR 243.4
                            Chargers, DST 242.0
                            Palmer, Carson QB 234.2
                            Wayne, Reggie WR 230.2
                            Bears, DST 225.0
                            Addai, Joseph RB 224.3
                            Houshmandzadeh, T.J. WR 218.6
                            Peterson, Adrian RB 218.1
                            Fitzgerald, Larry WR 216.3
                            McNabb, Donovan QB 214.0
                            Johnson, Chad WR 210.7
                            Cutler, Jay QB 209.4
                            Colston, Marques WR 209.0
                            Warner, Kurt QB 208.4
                            Portis, Clinton RB 205.1
                            Patriots, DST 199.0
                            Vikings, DST 196.0


                            Some kickers weren't too much futher down the list either...

                            Crosby, Mason K 177.0
                            Bironas, Rob K 172.0
                            sigpic
                            WFB Comments on Vikings @ Steelers Game Rigging
                            PuppyPuncher:"It sure was nice enough of Roger Goodell to let the refs from Ark-Florida officiate the Vikings-Steelers game"
                            NoNonsenseCoach:"As a Steelers fan living in Pittsburgh I can still admit that tripping penalty was a complete ghost call."
                            Simonds:"The tripping call was awful, yes, but there were a number of other absurd calls that went against the Vikings, including a DEFENSIVE delay of game penalty against the Vikings only called after a failed attempt to convert a third and 2 by the Steelers. Even the commentators were utterly floored that the refs made that call."
                            Wraith36444:"A shady tripping call on Minnesota essentially gave the game to the Steelers. The Vikings were the better team, but it is too hard to beat a decent team and the refs. Oh and Harvin is the man."
                            MaineMan:"I have to agree that it was an awful call and that it changed the outcome. Overall a great game by the Vikes and tragic that the well-deserved victory was stolen away like that."
                            PaddyPatriot:"I've seen this play and I have to agree, I can't believe they called it tripping"
                            Johndoe:"You know the officiating is bad when a Steeler's fan, like myself, thinks it was pretty bad."
                            Steelers_Pens_Fan:"I will admit that the whole "tripping" thing probably shouldn't have been a flag."
                            ZN0rseman:"It's great to know that good old fashioned pro football game rigging is still alive and well in America."
                            Klunker18:"I'm with Z on this one. Definitely one of those games that makes you wonder if the NFL wants certain teams to win."
                            TRICKaz"I agree that was a BS call"
                            InjuredReserve:"Have yet to hear anyone say it was the right call. Seems as if the Vikings were cheated a bit."
                            Eagles4Life:"Coaches just need to be able to challenge penalties"
                            EL_Guapo:"The tripping call was bad, the delay of game was stupid Either way, the Vikings showed they are a top team."
                            EllijayFalconsFan:"The tripping penalty was rediculous."
                            Archon095:"Even as a Steeler fan I agree that the call was bull."
                            BroncosCon:"I'm sorry that was a total bull**** call and it changed the outcome of the game. Pittsburgh still won, but it was almost like Denver winning at Cincy."

                            Tony Dungy:"The Vikings are just one bad tripping penalty away from being undefeated.
                            Jon Gruden:"That was just a bad, bad call. It cost the Vikings an important win at Pittsburgh, and it could really hurt them in the post season."

                            Comment

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