Week 7 Survivor Pick

[Walter]

Seattle over Tampa won in Week 1.
Chicago over Kansas City won in Week 2.
Pittsburgh over San Francisco won in Week 3.
Dallas over St. Louis won in Week 4.
New England over Cleveland won in Week 5.
Baltimore over St. Louis won in Week 6.

In case you don't know what this is, you need to pick a team to just win each week. If that team wins, you stay alive. If that team loses, you're out. You can't pick the same team twice.


These are guidelines I use:

1. Never pick road teams
2. Never pick a bad team
3. Stay away from public plays
4. Never pick a team that could either be looking ahead or behind
5. Never pick divisional games

Getting tougher now...

The 14 home teams in Week 6 are (excluding ones I picked):

Washington
New Orleans
Buffalo
Miami
NY Giants
Detroit
Houston
Oakland
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Denver
Jacksonville

Knocking the bad teams off, we have:

Washington
New Orleans
NY Giants
Detroit
Houston
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Denver
Jacksonville

Eliminating divisional games, we have:

Washington
NY Giants
Detroit
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Denver

Washington playing Arizona w/Rattay, strong possibility
NY Giants playing San Francisco w/Dilfer, strong possibility
Detroit playing Tampa Bay, eliminate
Cincinnati playing NY Jets, strong possibility
Philadelphia playing Chicago, maybe
Denver playing Pittsburgh, eliminate


We've narrowed it down to:
Washington over Arizona
NY Giants over San Francsico
Cincinnati over NY Jets
Philadelphia over Chicago

Four options this week.


Teams looking ahead:
Washington plays New England Week 8 (coming off a loss).
NY Giants play in London Week 8.
Cincinnati plays Pittsburgh in Week 8 (could have locker room problems).
Philadelphia plays Minnesota in Week 8.

We've now narrowed it down to:
Washington over Arizona
NY Giants over San Francsico
Cincinnati over NY Jets
Philadelphia over Chicago

We don't know what the public is betting on yet.

OK, so what do you guys think? What's the strongest team we can choose out of those four?

[Walter]

Bringing this over from the Week 5 Thread:

One thing we have to decide is if we want to use NE or save them for later. This is the rest of their home schedule. Let's see where we can use them in the future:

Week 8: NE over WASH - yes
Week 12: NE over PHI - yes
Week 14: NE over PIT - no
Week 15: NE over NYJ - div game; no
Week 16: NE over MIA - div game; no


OK, what about Indy?
Week 9: INDY over NE - hell no
Week 11: INDY over KC - hell yes
Week 13: INDY over JAX - no
Week 16: INDY over HOU - div game; no
Week 17: INDY over TEN - div game; no


What about TEN?
Week 8: TEN over OAK - yes (same week as NE over WAS)
Week 9: TEN over CAR - yes (though I'd rather not cuz Car always plays well as a dog)
Week 10: TEN over JAX - div game; no
Week 13: TEN over HOU - div game; no
Week 14: TEN over SD - maybe
Week 16: TEN over NYJ - maybe


Might as well do HOU:
Week 7: HOU over TEN - div game; no
Week 11: HOU over NO - maybe
Week 14: HOU over TB - no
Week 15: HOU over DEN - probably not
Week 17: HOU over JAX - div game; no


And WAS:
Week 7: WAS over ARZ - maybe
Week 10: WAS over PHI - div game; no
Week 13: WAS over BUF - probably
Week 14: WAS over CHI - maybe
Week 17: WAS over DAL - div game; no


Analysis:

We can use NE Weeks 5, 8 and 12.
We can use INDY Weeks 5 and 11... so if we don't use them this week, we have to use them Week 11.
We can use TEN Weeks 5, 8 and 9.
If we don't use HOU this week, we may never will.
We can use WAS Weeks 5, 13, and maybe 7 and 14.
We can use SD Weeks 15 and maybe 8. We don't have a 15 yet, so this works out well.

Forget about using NE Week 12. We have some nice options like JAX over BUF and NYG over MIN.

So, if we use NE Week 5, we can take TEN Week 8 or 9, and INDY Week 11.

[Walter]

To shorten that:

Week 8 possibilities: Tennessee, maybe San Diego.
Week 9 possibilities: Tennessee
Week 11 possibilities: Indianapolis
Week 13 possibilities: Washington
Week 15 possibilities: San Diego

[Walter]

Let's see when we can use Cincy, NY Giants, Wash, Phi

We know we can use Wash on Week 13.

Cincy Home Games:
Week 8, Pittsburgh - no
Week 11, Arizona - yes
Week 12, Tennessee - No
Week 14, St. Louis - Yes
Week 16, Cleveland - Div game; no

NY Giants Home Games:
Week 10, Dallas - No
Week 12, Minnesota - Maybe
Week 14, Washington - No
Week 17, New England - No

Philly Home Games:
Week 9, Dallas - No
Week 11, Miami - Yes
Week 13, Seattle - No
Week 14, NY Giants - No
Week 17, Buffalo - Who knows that late?

This means if we don't use NYG here, we may never use them again.

We can use CIncy Week 11 or Week 14.

We can use Philly Week 11.

[Walter]

To shorten the past few posts:

Week 7 strong possibilities: NY Giants, Cincinnati, Washington
Week 8 strong possibilities: Tennessee, San Diego
Week 9 strong possibilities: Tennessee, Tampa Bay
Week 10 strong possibilities: New Orleans, (tough week; lots of div. matchups)
Week 11 strong possibilities: Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Philadelphia
Week 12 strong possibilities: Jacksonville, San Diego
Week 13 strong possibilities: Washington
Week 14 strong possibilities: Cincinnati
Week 15 strong possibilities: San Diego

[Walter]

So, if they are all even, the Giants are the smart play.

Thoughts?

[swifty222]

I like NYG and Wash.

NYG look like a hot team right now. Might as well ride them while you can, with a poor team coming to town.

[Adam Mac]

I like the Cincy pick... hate the Philly pick haha j/j

[Walter]

Yeah, I'm thinking NYG because we can't use them again. These teams look even in my mind.

[Matt McGuire]

Giants over 9ers imo

[Zero Cool]

Hey dudes sup. Haven't posted in a while, but I read every week. As always, thanks Walt for the picks, and insight.

Lol I am a 49er fan, but in no way I'm a biased when it comes to survivor picks. I actually picked all the same picks as you did Walt, and week 3 Pittsburgh over niners.

I think that the 49ers have a legitimate shot to win this game. Eli well we all know how bad this guy can be, he is bound to make a couple of stupid plays in a game. But I think Alex Smith is coming back, and Frank Gore is going to have a monster game finally. I really think the Giants will let down after having a great game on Monday Night, and they are 9pt fav and that line seems fishy to me. Even with Smith the niners are a very conservative offense, if Dilfer starts forget it they will lose, but Smith at least is 2-1 this season, and does a lot better than Dilfer. They do have a good defense, and will hold the Giants to less than 20 points. I just think with the Giants strong pass rush, the Niners never pass the ball anyway, Gore will have a field day running up the middle on them, so I still may pick the Giants, but it's not a cakewalk like everyone is saying it will be. It will be a close game.

[Walter]

Zero, if Smith starts that changes everything. I was waiting on hearing if Dilfer would be in.