Found a game I want to make my November Pick of the Month

[Walter]

I swear, does anyone in Vegas even ****ing watch the nfl?

Vegas makes money almost every single week. They make billions of dollars every year. I think they know what they're doing.

[Phil]

I swear, does anyone in Vegas even ****ing watch the nfl?

I hope that question was rhetorical.

Candyman, you are the exact person who vegas makes all their money on. "OMG CRAZEE SPREAD, ILL BET MY HOUSE ON DETRIOT" 4 hours later: "WTF DETROIT!!! U SUXX"

The people in Vegas are professionals; but you don't have to be a pro to beat them, just a good observer.

[Walter]

Look, would it surprise me at all if the Lions won this game? I'd be foolish if I said yes. Anything can happen in the NFL on any given Sunday. But in terms of handicapping, I found everything I look for in this game.

[candyman82]

I hope that question was rhetorical.

Candyman, you are the exact person who vegas makes all their money on. "OMG CRAZEE SPREAD, ILL BET MY HOUSE ON DETRIOT" 4 hours later: "WTF DETROIT!!! U SUXX"

The people in Vegas are professionals; but you don't have to be a pro to beat them, just a good observer.

I don't bet much because I'm not good at it. And yes, that was rhetorical

[candyman82]

Vegas makes money almost every single week. They make billions of dollars every year. I think they know what they're doing.

I was being sardonic because some recent Vegas picks have been bad in my opinion

[NoNonsenseCoach]

I'm actually on Walters side after reading his whole thing. I thought Detroit was a lock just like he predicted, but then after reading the whole thing I changed my mind. I'm actually going to bet on Arizona.

[Walter]

Good luck, NNC

[candyman82]

I still am picking Detroit. Feel free to rake me over the coals if they lose

[Brian]

There are a LOT of sharps on a couple of other boards that I frequent that are on Arizona as well. And these are guys who analyze +/- EV, Kelly criterion (which I couldn't begin to explain), etc.

Most of these guys will debate why betting a game at -3 (-105) is +EV, but betting it at (-3) -110 is -EV. Some serious players there.

Between those boards (and Walter's analysis), this reminds me 100% of the Bills/Cowboys never-in-doubter from a few weeks ago. Let's hope for the same result.

Over the years, it seems I've always done better going against "the obvious". When I was in my 20's, I used to have the EXACT same attitude as candyman.

"WTF - this line is stupid! Detroit's obviously a better team - this is a no brainer! Motown all the way!". Three hours later, I'd be lamenting the fact that the linesmaker was BEGGING me to take Detroit, and I fell for it hook, line, and sinker.

I don't really do the whole handicapping bit - I leave that to the experts (i.e. Walter et al). I just know when a game/line absolutely SCREAMS "take team D", I tend to lean to team A.

And whoever said that Vegas and the linesmakers know what they're doing - I couldn't agree more. I think that needs to be first and foremost in the front of your mind before you walk up to the window with your cash, or before you press the "Confirm" button on the screen.

[candyman82]

There are a LOT of sharps on a couple of other boards that I frequent that are on Arizona as well. And these are guys who analyze +/- EV, Kelly criterion (which I couldn't begin to explain), etc.

Most of these guys will debate why betting a game at -3 (-105) is +EV, but betting it at (-3) -110 is -EV. Some serious players there.

Between those boards (and Walter's analysis), this reminds me 100% of the Bills/Cowboys never-in-doubter from a few weeks ago. Let's hope for the same result.

Over the years, it seems I've always done better going against "the obvious". When I was in my 20's, I used to have the EXACT same attitude as candyman.

"WTF - this line is stupid! Detroit's obviously a better team - this is a no brainer! Motown all the way!". Three hours later, I'd be lamenting the fact that the linesmaker was BEGGING me to take Detroit, and I fell for it hook, line, and sinker.

I don't really do the whole handicapping bit - I leave that to the experts (i.e. Walter et al). I just know when a game/line absolutely SCREAMS "take team D", I tend to lean to team A.

And whoever said that Vegas and the linesmakers know what they're doing - I couldn't agree more. I think that needs to be first and foremost in the front of your mind before you walk up to the window with your cash, or before you press the "Confirm" button on the screen.

Vegas is the most confusing thing in the world

[Walter]

There are a LOT of sharps on a couple of other boards that I frequent that are on Arizona as well. And these are guys who analyze +/- EV, Kelly criterion (which I couldn't begin to explain), etc.

Most of these guys will debate why betting a game at -3 (-105) is +EV, but betting it at (-3) -110 is -EV. Some serious players there.

Between those boards (and Walter's analysis), this reminds me 100% of the Bills/Cowboys never-in-doubter from a few weeks ago. Let's hope for the same result.

Over the years, it seems I've always done better going against "the obvious". When I was in my 20's, I used to have the EXACT same attitude as candyman.

"WTF - this line is stupid! Detroit's obviously a better team - this is a no brainer! Motown all the way!". Three hours later, I'd be lamenting the fact that the linesmaker was BEGGING me to take Detroit, and I fell for it hook, line, and sinker.

I don't really do the whole handicapping bit - I leave that to the experts (i.e. Walter et al). I just know when a game/line absolutely SCREAMS "take team D", I tend to lean to team A.

And whoever said that Vegas and the linesmakers know what they're doing - I couldn't agree more. I think that needs to be first and foremost in the front of your mind before you walk up to the window with your cash, or before you press the "Confirm" button on the screen.

Thanks, Brian. And well said, figuring out what Vegas wants you to do is probably the single-most important thing in handicapping.

This game does seem like the Bills-Cowboys game. The only difference is this game won't be nationally televised, so there will be less action on this game. Still though, any NFL game will draw more action than any other NBA/MLB/NHL/NCAAF/NCAAB game.

[Phil]

It's also important to remember that the odds makers do not make the spread based on their prediction of the outcome of the game. Instead, their line is designed to create equal action on both teams playing. However, this is almost impossible to achieve, resulting in certain teams receiving the bulk of the bets. Of course, there is altering by certain companies who disagree with the spreads.

As for the Arizona-Detroit game, it seems obvious that the Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) know a whole heck of a lot more about this game than the average better, and I therefore trust their opinion. Go Cardinals!

[NoNonsenseCoach]

That's a great point. Phil. If they could Vegas would take 50% of the on each team. That way the'd make money every week.

[Walter]

I think they want equal action on some games. However, we've seen that Vegas sets a line to induce betting to one side on multiple occasions.

Let's take the Bulls-Raptors game tonight. The total opened at 191 and dropped to 189.5 despite the fact that the Over was being bet at 80%. If Vegas wanted equal action, it would have raised the total. Clearly they knew something no one else did.

[NoNonsenseCoach]

Ya that's true... and I knew that. I just only had it in me to type one line at the time. lol