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Walter: On Baseball Betting

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  • Walter: On Baseball Betting

    I have what sounds like a really obvious idea for you.

    Bet on home teams if the home team in question is not: Seattle, Washington, San Diego, San Francisco.

    Home teams this year are 919-708 so far, or 56.4% win rate. Excluding those four teams above, home teams are a cumulative 833-573, or 59.24% win rate. Maybe not great numbers, but hey. Your systems aren't doing that great, by your own admission. =P
    - Also known as Dan.
    - Also known as the footballclod, where I do my own fantasy football and other football related stuff. -> www.footballclod.wordpress.com

  • #2
    I think this new one (+1.5 Run Line betting) is good... and proven. I believe it'll also work in hockey.

    59.24 percent sounds good, but we'd have to take the juice into account. Actually I can break down how well betting on each home team has fared this year:

    Tampa Bay +20.4
    Minnesota +18
    Chicago Cubs +14.8
    Chicago Sox +13.8
    Boston +13.6
    Florida +9
    Pittsburgh +7.3
    Baltimore +6.4
    Texas +4.6
    Colorado +3.8
    NY Mets +3.3
    LA Angels +1.9
    St. Louis +1.1
    Milwaukee +0.9
    Atlanta +0.3
    Aizona -0.1
    Houston -1
    Cincinnati -1.4
    Toronto -1.6
    Detroit -1.9
    Philadelphia -3.5
    Oakland -4.1
    NY Yankees -5.9
    LA Dodgers -6.7
    Kansas City -7.4
    Cleveland -8.3
    Washington -12.4
    San Diego -14.8
    San Francisco -14.9
    Seattle -19

    Taking away the teams you mentioned may make it seem profitable, but who's to say those teams keep losing at home? Moreover, what if a squad like Toronto or Baltimore bottoms out and loses 12 Units at home the rest of the year?
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    • #3
      For instance, you lost 7.4 Units betting all Royals home games this year. That's not bad, considering all the +Units you're getting. But the Royals do suck, and they could conceivable win just 35-38 percent of their home games the rest of the way. That would be losing a ton more units.
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      • #4
        Originally posted by Walter View Post
        For instance, you lost 7.4 Units betting all Royals home games this year. That's not bad, considering all the +Units you're getting. But the Royals do suck, and they could conceivable win just 35-38 percent of their home games the rest of the way. That would be losing a ton more units.
        Of course. I singled out those four teams because they have particularly horrifyingly bad records at home. Royals are 5 below .500 at home. I'm just saying, if you took all the MLB squads besides those four, you'd win close to 60% of your games, irrelevant of any other prediction. That assumes you bet on every single game and picked the home team every single time. If you picked your matchups wisely, I wouldn't be surprised to see that number to be at 70% easy.
        - Also known as Dan.
        - Also known as the footballclod, where I do my own fantasy football and other football related stuff. -> www.footballclod.wordpress.com

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        • #5
          No matter who they are playing bet on the Royals if Greinke is pitching. Look at the matchup if Meche is going and decide. Bet against them the rest of the time.

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          • #6
            Actually you're only up 1.8 Units with Greinke on the mound.

            Kyle Davies +5 Units
            Gil Paper Meche +2.95 Units
            Brian Bannister -1.05 Units
            Luke Hochevar -2.1 Units
            John Bale -3 Units
            Brett Tomko -3.5 Units
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            • #7
              Originally posted by Blazedestin View Post
              Of course. I singled out those four teams because they have particularly horrifyingly bad records at home. Royals are 5 below .500 at home. I'm just saying, if you took all the MLB squads besides those four, you'd win close to 60% of your games, irrelevant of any other prediction. That assumes you bet on every single game and picked the home team every single time. If you picked your matchups wisely, I wouldn't be surprised to see that number to be at 70% easy.
              Say you win 70 percent... the problem is, if you're laying -200 every time, you're only breaking even at 66.7 percent.
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              • #8
                Originally posted by Walter View Post
                Actually you're only up 1.8 Units with Greinke on the mound.

                Kyle Davies +5 Units
                Gil Paper Meche +2.95 Units
                Brian Bannister -1.05 Units
                Luke Hochevar -2.1 Units
                John Bale -3 Units
                Brett Tomko -3.5 Units
                But Greinke is on fire now.

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                • #9
                  Actually he hasn't gained a unit since June.

                  Gil Meche is +6.05 Units in his past five starts.
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                  • #10
                    He had 11 K's 2 starts ago and was cruising in his last start before getting ejected in the 7th after throwing at a guy

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