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(NFL Week 12) Picks on Picks on Picks

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  • (NFL Week 12) Picks on Picks on Picks

    What up WF.com homies? (or haters depending on who you are) I've recently become seriously fascinated with handicapping the NFL as opposed to just watching games. Little late getting on the bandwagon I know. Here are my picks so far for W12. I want to post my picks with analysis each week on here maybe you all can give me some feedback. I promise my picks for Thursday were legit no b.s. I hate the Cowboys because they are such a poorly coached team. Lots of stupid penalties I feel like there is a lot of value in fading America's team. Maybe not now since they got embarrassed by RG3 but I have no faith in a Jason Garrett/Tony Romo team. Took New England for a unit. Didn't want to put some more units on a road fave. Analysis coming later tonight (if I'm not too drunk)

    Asterisks indicate number of units

    Texans -3* (Push)
    Redskins +3.5*** (+300)
    Patriots -6.5* (+100)

    Raiders +8*
    Colts -3 (0 units)
    Broncos -10**
    Titans -4*
    Bucs +1**
    Dolphins +3*
    Chargers +1*
    St. Louis -1**** (Walter convinced me and I trust him)
    Giants -2.5* (I'll probably regret this but banking on a typical Giants late season turnaround)
    New Orleans +1***** (Pick of the month. Love fading a big SF MNF win vs. Jason Campbell. Now they are favored on the road vs. a team that is 5-1 in their last 6. Drew Brees as a home dog against a 2nd round pick. Really?)
    Carolina -2.5 (0 units)
    2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

    Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.


  • #2
    Good to hear from you Matt. I like the Saints too

    Comment


    • #3
      Here is my analysis for the picks.

      Raiders (+8) at Bengals (1 unit)

      This is one of those picks that I will lose if I pick either team. Probably means I shouldn't bet it, but I feel the spread is just too high for an Andy Dalton QB'd team. The Bengals have been inconsistent this season and I think the public is fading the Raiders after their pathetic loss last week. I don't feel like the Bengals are 8 points better than anyone right now except the Jets, Eagles, and Chiefs. The Raiders have some talent and they will be looking to make a statement.

      Bills at Colts (-3) (1 unit)
      I'm changing this pick. The more I think about it, the line seems fair, and I think there is real value in Andrew Luck at home this season (4-1 ATS and overall). Colts are in the playoff hunt so I expect them to be motivated and focused while the Bills look like they are throwing their season. I like the coaching edge and I like Luck in the dome. I will be betting him hard at home over the course of his career - just a smart play when you think about it. If I expect to win ATS 70% of the time at home then it's the winning play.

      Broncos (-10) at Chiefs (2 units).
      This would be an extremely dangerous play if the Broncos QB was not Peyton Manning. Lesson #1: Rarely should you ever bet against him. Lesson #2: The Chiefs have given up and you always bet against these type of crappy teams in this situation. Peyton is so great ATS because he is a perfectionist, wants great stats, and understands the bigger picture.

      Titans (-4) at Jaguars (1 unit)
      You can read Walt's analysis. There is no home field advantage here so since I know the Titans are more than 4 points better than the Jags on paper this looks solid, but I'm not getting crazy because I don't have a great feel for either team.

      Falcons at Bucs (+1) (2 units)
      Bucs are 8-2 ATS this year. That's an indication of 2 things: great coaching and great play from Freeman. I think Tampa has the psychological edge in this game. Falcons have beat a bunch of cupcakes and I think they are overconfident - Bucs have gotten some legitimate wins with a mediocre secondary and the public/media loves Atlanta. Atlanta will be looking ahead to their Thursday game. Tampa needs this win to make the playoffs (every Tampa fan on the planet has 0% confidence in beating Peyton Manning right now - trust me - we know Week 13 is a loss plain and simple). Biggest game of the year for them. This would be 3 units if they weren't my team, but since they are I'm always concerned I could be wrong since I'm a fan.

      Seahawks at Miami (+3) (1 unit)
      The last time the public saw Miami they didn't cover on the road to beat Buffalo (easier said than done in my opinion). Seattle is reading their press clippings and I think this is just the quintessential trap game. Seattle flying all the way to Miami is rough. They are simply a different team on the road and I think they will overlook Miami.

      Ravens at Chargers (+1) (2 units)
      Everyone is beating up Philip Rivers. Everyone is picking Baltimore on TV and betting them. However, the only time they have covered on the road this year was against an overrated Philadelphia team in Week 2. Squares will be betting Baltimore. Sharps will be betting San Diego. I'm going with the later and Rivers. I just don't trust Flacco to win this game. [B]Baltimore beat Byron Leftwich by 3 points this week. So Vegas is telling me that Philip Rivers is only 2 points better (at home) than Byron Leftwich[/B. Look, I know he has struggled this season, but he'll be ready for Baltimore. In fact, after writing this I'm adding a unit to this game. If I love San Diego I need to bet like it.

      St. Louis (-1.5) at Arizona (4 units)
      Read Walt's analysis. This pick is all on him. Loved his logic and I think it's the right play. If something doesn't make sense then you have to take advantage.

      Packers at Giants (-2.5) (0 units)
      I adjusted this pick. I'm banking on a late season turnaround for New York but there is no guarantee of that right now. It's blind faith. I shouldn't bet on blind faith - might as well burn $$$. Stay off this game. Too unpredictable and random. Looking forward to watching it though.

      San Francisco at New Orleans (+1) (5 units)
      #1: I love Brees at home especially as a dog. #2: I hate when the public and media overreacts to primetime games. Colin Kaepernick beat a Bears defense that put their (lack of) trust in Jason Campbell to get it done - that's why they sucked. Chicago without Cutler is an overrated team. The 49ers are not world-beaters. The Rams played them to a draw (with SF coming off a bye nonetheless) and they got annihilated by the Giants at home. The Saints are 5-1 in their last 6. They have a ton of confidence and are in the playoff hunt. Drew Brees is not scared of a 2nd round pick at QB. The Saints will be ready and the Superdome will be rocking. The spread is simply WRONG. The Saints should be a 3 pt favorite. Fade the media and public. Money in the bank.

      Panthers (-2.5) at Eagles (0 units)
      The Eagles have given up. And that is why they are a dog to a 2-8 team coming off a brutal OT loss to Tampa at home. The spread is correct and there is no psychological edge. Slight lean to Carolina. I'm curious to see which team will show up or if it will be a "lesser of 2 evils" type game.

      No line on Vikes vs Bears - does Vegas not post lines for games sometimes? I don't feel like betting money on Christian Ponder anyway - or AD vs the Bears run defense).
      2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

      Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

      Comment


      • #4
        I forgot Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland (+1.5) (1 units)
        Cleveland has been sneaky competitive this season. That's the opposite of Charlie Batch. Wish the line was higher so I could lay more units.
        2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

        Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

        Comment


        • #5
          -.3 units for the day. Disappointing. I still like a lot of my picks in hindsight. Denver should be ashamed. Tampa had a chance but Tiquan Underwood dropped a huge pass on 3rd down in the 4th quarter. He makes that catch I think they win. Drew Brees loses at home. Chargers can't win at home in OT.

          Yeah - we are retarded for betting Oakland. I won't do that again until the next time I do it (probably next week).
          2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

          Congrats to Wisconsin. Even more congrats to UK haters.

          Comment


          • #6
            Welcome back matt

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